2026
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15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 6 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 4 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 5 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 6 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 7 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 8 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 9 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 10 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 11 Kyle Schwarber 4 HRs · 12 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 6 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 4 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 5 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 6 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 7 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 8 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 9 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 10 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 11 Kyle Schwarber 4 HRs · 12 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs
2026-06-25 · DATA-DRIVEN

Variance-Backed Card

The top 5 model picks combined produce only ~4% of nightly home runs. Picking chalk every day is a losing game. This card samples 6 picks from where HRs actually come from — backed by the last 30 days of data.

Last 30 days · 786 HRs across 5565 batter-game rows Where home runs actually come from
Anchor #1-15
11.6% of all HRs
20.2%hit rate
Mid-edge #16-50
21.6% of all HRs
16.2%hit rate
Sleeper #51-100
28.0% of all HRs
14.7%hit rate
Deep dart #101-200
38.8% of all HRs
11.9%hit rate

A 6-pick card is allocated proportionally: 1 anchor from top-15 keeps you grounded; the other 5 sample from where the HRs actually land.

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One card per night. Six picks. Sampled from reality.

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