Results
How the model performed — daily scorecards and season trends.
31
HRs Hit
0/5
Top-5 · 0.0%
2/15
Top-15 · 13.3%
47.3vs 43.8
Avg Score: HR vs Miss
Home Runs · 2026-06-24
Barrel 13.3%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.246Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.246 is above average.EV 90.5Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.5 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.Park 1.059Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 5.9% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.💨 Wind Out 5.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.
106.7mph
27.0°
416ft
Barrel 10.2%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.260Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.260 is elite.EV 92.6Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 92.6 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.32Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.32 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.061Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 6.1% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.💨 Wind Out 3mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 14.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 14.5% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
109.8mph
26.0°
428ft
Barrel 10.5%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.212Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.212 is above average.FIP 5.69Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.69 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.86FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.🔥 HOTHot streak — batter has multiple HRs or barrels in the last 7 days of Statcast data.🛑 Wind In 7mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.
95.6mph
28.0°
366ft
Barrel 9.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.235Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.235 is above average.FIP 4.82Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.82 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +1.01FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.🛑 Wind In 4mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.⚠️ BP 14.4%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 14.4% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
102.8mph
31.0°
394ft
Barrel 10.4%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.5Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.5 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.Park 1.061Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 6.1% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.💨 Wind Out 3mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.
103.5mph
27.0°
400ft
Barrel 11.8%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 91.6Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.6 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.49Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.49 signals HR vulnerability.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.
102.0mph
28.0°
426ft
Barrel 8.5%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.243Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.243 is above average.💨 Wind Out 6.7mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.
104.9mph
30.0°
427ft
Barrel 9.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.2Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.2 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.49Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.49 signals HR vulnerability.
106.5mph
27.0°
437ft
Barrel 10.2%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.5Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.5 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.55Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.55 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.58FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.💨 Wind Out 12.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🔥 BP 16.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 16.5% (league avg ~12%). If the starter exits early, relievers are also HR-prone. Display-only — does not affect model score.
108.4mph
23.0°
416ft
Barrel 10.1%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 91.0Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.0 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.05Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.05 signals HR vulnerability.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.🛑 Wind In 7mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.⚠️ BP 13.3%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.3% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
112.5mph
22.0°
373ft
Barrel 10.3%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 91.3Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.3 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.95Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.95 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.94FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.🛑 Wind In 2.0mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.⚠️ BP 14.4%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 14.4% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
109.3mph
20.0°
416ft
Barrel 8.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.7Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.7 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.33Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.33 signals HR vulnerability.💨 Wind Out 12.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🔥 BP 16.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 16.5% (league avg ~12%). If the starter exits early, relievers are also HR-prone. Display-only — does not affect model score.
103.9mph
23.0°
405ft
Barrel 9.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.7Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.7 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.33Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.33 signals HR vulnerability.💨 Wind Out 12.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🔥 BP 16.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 16.5% (league avg ~12%). If the starter exits early, relievers are also HR-prone. Display-only — does not affect model score.
106.5mph
34.0°
437ft
Barrel 8.4%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.201Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.201 is above average.EV 91.0Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.0 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.🛑 Wind In 7mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.⚠️ BP 12.7%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.7% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
107.7mph
31.0°
417ft
Barrel 9.4%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.8Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.8 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.Park 1.059Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 5.9% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.💨 Wind Out 5.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.
101.0mph
28.0°
399ft
Barrel 13.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.7Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.7 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.55Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.55 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.58FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.💨 Wind Out 12.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🔥 BP 16.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 16.5% (league avg ~12%). If the starter exits early, relievers are also HR-prone. Display-only — does not affect model score.
106.5mph
34.0°
437ft
Barrel 7.3%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 5.02Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.02 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.76FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.130Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 13.0% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🛑 Wind In 2.0mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.⚠️ BP 13.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.5% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
99.8mph
26.0°
365ft
Barrel 8.8%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.5Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.5 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.55Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.55 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.58FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.💨 Wind Out 12.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🔥 BP 16.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 16.5% (league avg ~12%). If the starter exits early, relievers are also HR-prone. Display-only — does not affect model score.
106.3mph
31.0°
411ft
Barrel 7.7%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.5Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.5 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.32Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.32 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.061Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 6.1% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.💨 Wind Out 3mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 14.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 14.5% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
103.6mph
26.0°
399ft
Barrel 9.5%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.💨 Wind Out 12.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 12.2%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.2% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
108.2mph
25.0°
398ft
Barrel 7.4%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.2Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.2 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.💨 Wind Out 12.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 12.2%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.2% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
103.1mph
35.0°
418ft
Barrel 6.7%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.5Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.5 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.33Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.33 signals HR vulnerability.💨 Wind Out 12.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🔥 BP 16.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 16.5% (league avg ~12%). If the starter exits early, relievers are also HR-prone. Display-only — does not affect model score.
106.3mph
31.0°
411ft
Barrel 8.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.💨 Wind Out 12.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 12.2%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.2% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
108.2mph
25.0°
398ft
Barrel 6.2%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.2Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.2 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.💨 Wind Out 12.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 12.2%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.2% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
103.1mph
35.0°
418ft
Barrel 6.6%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 5.02Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.02 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.76FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.130Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 13.0% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.⚡ Surprise BarrelSurprise barrel — batter produced a barrel-quality batted ball recently despite a low season barrel rate. Signals emerging power.🛑 Wind In 2.0mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.⚠️ BP 13.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.5% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
102.7mph
24.0°
380ft
Barrel 3.5%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.222Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.222 is above average.EV 89.6Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.6 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.⚡ Surprise BarrelSurprise barrel — batter produced a barrel-quality batted ball recently despite a low season barrel rate. Signals emerging power.💨 Wind Out 6.7mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.
101.2mph
32.0°
382ft
Barrel 2.6%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 5.49Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.49 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +1.00FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.181Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 18.1% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.⚠️ BP 13.9%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.9% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
96.3mph
40.0°
342ft
Barrel 7.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.8Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.8 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP-xFIP +0.78FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.⚠️ BP 13.8%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.8% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
106.2mph
23.0°
427ft
Barrel 4.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 91.8Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.8 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.💨 Wind Out 10mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 14.9%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 14.9% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
106.1mph
30.0°
416ft
Barrel 7.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.55Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.55 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.58FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.💨 Wind Out 12.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🔥 BP 16.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 16.5% (league avg ~12%). If the starter exits early, relievers are also HR-prone. Display-only — does not affect model score.
104.7mph
34.0°
420ft
Barrel 1.1%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.60Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.60 signals HR vulnerability.🛑 Wind In 2.0mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.⚠️ BP 13.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.5% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
99.8mph
28.0°
387ft
Catch Rates
Top 5
0/5
Top 10
1/10
Top 15
2/15
Top 25
4/25
Tier Accuracy
AboveAvg
1/11
Value
3/28
BelowAvg
6/47
Below
21/168
Season Trends
Daily Top-15 Catch Rate
Cumulative Catch Rate by Tier