2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Javier Assad
Javier Assad RHP CHC
41 matchups scored · 5 game days
7 HRs Allowed
17.1% HR Rate (Pool)
11.9% Overall HR/FB
4.61 FIP
4.44 xFIP
+0.17 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
1.4
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
11.9%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
45th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
71.8%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
4.61
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
69th pctile
4.44
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.17
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
58th pctile
17.1%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
41
Pool Matchups
7
HRs Allowed (Pool)
1
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
17.1%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 8 1 3 37.5% 3.0 99.6mph 105.6mph 29.3° 418ft Up +20.4pp
Last 15 23 3 6 26.1% 2.0 97.7mph 104.1mph 28.0° 412ft Up +9.0pp
Last 30 23 3 6 26.1% 2.0 97.7mph 104.1mph 28.0° 412ft Up +9.0pp
Batted-Ball Damage
39 tracked BBE from 41 pool matchups
97.5
111.5
28
0
103.5
29.0°
408
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-24 Bo Bichette 108.3mph 106.3mph 31° 411ft Yes
2026-06-24 Francisco Alvarez 106.5mph 106.5mph 34° 437ft Yes
2026-06-24 Carson Benge 104.9mph · · · ·
2026-06-24 Jared Young 103.9mph 103.9mph 23° 405ft Yes
2026-06-24 Marcus Semien 102.9mph · · · ·
2026-06-24 MJ Melendez 101.4mph · · · ·
2026-06-17 Hunter Goodman 107.7mph 107.7mph 22° 417ft Yes
2026-06-17 Sterlin Thompson 102.6mph 99.7mph 29° 406ft Yes
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
5 days · 7 total HRs
HRs Allowed
7 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-24 Jared Young #96 48 Citi Field 103.9mph 23.0° 405ft
2026-06-24 Francisco Alvarez #100 48 Citi Field 106.5mph 34.0° 437ft
2026-06-24 Bo Bichette #152 41 Citi Field 106.3mph 31.0° 411ft
2026-06-17 Hunter Goodman #23 69 Wrigley Field 107.7mph 22.0° 417ft
2026-06-17 Kyle Karros #167 36 Wrigley Field 100.3mph 29.0° 393ft
2026-06-17 Sterlin Thompson #230 17 Wrigley Field 99.7mph 29.0° 406ft
2026-04-19 MJ Melendez #230 23 Wrigley Field 99.9mph 35.0° 387.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Sinker 269 39.2% -0.8 86.5 17.0° 1
Fastball 114 16.6% -0.7 81.9 28.9° 2
Cutter 113 16.4% -0.3 82.0 18.0° 1
Sweeper 56 8.2% -1.2 75.9 6.4° 0
Changeup 52 7.6% +1.7 82.7 0.5° 2
Curveball 51 7.4% -0.4 80.5 20.8° 0
Slider 32 4.7% -4.6 85.1 17.0° 0
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
71.8%
71.8%
All Scored Matchups
41 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-24 Luis Torrens #226 28 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-24 Brett Baty #212 31 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-24 Marcus Semien #171 39 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-24 Bo Bichette #152 41 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-24 Carson Benge #134 43 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-24 MJ Melendez #105 47 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-24 Francisco Alvarez #100 48 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-24 Jared Young #96 48 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-17 Sterlin Thompson #230 17 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-17 Tyler Freeman #178 34 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-17 Jake McCarthy #176 34 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-17 Edouard Julien #172 35 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-17 Kyle Karros #167 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-17 Ezequiel Tovar #153 40 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-17 TJ Rumfield #116 45 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-17 Hunter Goodman #23 69 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-12 Luis Arráez #211 25 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Jung Hoo Lee #185 32 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Drew Gilbert #163 38 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-12 Rafael Devers #120 43 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-12 Matt Chapman #100 47 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-12 Casey Schmitt #90 49 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-12 Willy Adames #84 50 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-19 MJ Melendez #230 23 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-04-19 Luis Torrens #192 31 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-19 Bo Bichette #187 32 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-19 Marcus Semien #156 39 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-19 Brett Baty #144 42 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-19 Mark Vientos #129 44 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-19 Luis Robert Jr. #122 46 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-19 Carson Benge #121 46 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-19 Francisco Lindor #98 50 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-07 Chandler Simpson #243 11 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-07 Jake Mangum #232 18 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-07 Taylor Walls #220 22 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-07 Josh Lowe #156 29 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-07 Christopher Morel #97 36 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-04-07 Yandy Diaz #89 34 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-07 Jonathan Aranda #57 36 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-07 Junior Caminero #31 47 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-07 Brandon Lowe #15 42 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
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