2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Willy Adames
Willy Adames
SF RHB
Willy Adames

Willy Adames

RHB
SF · 75 appearances tracked
11
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
14.7%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
14.3%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
88.6
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.181
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#8
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 3 games · 11 HRs in 75 games
Due (1×)
2.0×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
6
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
3
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
75
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
18
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
2
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
18%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#103.6
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
HR Days (While Top 50)
2 homers captured
DateRankPitcherStadium B/P WT BP EV Distance
2026-04-10 #50 Shane Baz Camden Yards · · · 103.8 mph 402.0 ft
2026-06-05 #33 Edward Cabrera Wrigley Field · · · 102.5 mph 388 ft
All Appearances
75 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-06-24 #190 Gage Jump R/L * 10.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-23 #78 Aaron Civale R/R * 17.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-21 #63 Ryan Gusto R/R * 18.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-20 #83 Max Meyer R/R * 19.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-19 #72 Lake Bachar R/R * 22.2% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-18 #44 Martín Pérez R/L * 18.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-17 #126 JR Ritchie R/R * 12.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-17 #92 Grant Holmes R/R * 19.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-16 #61 Grant Holmes R/R * 23.1% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-14 #101 Ryan Rolison R/L * 19.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 🔥 ·
2026-06-13 #121 Ben Brown R/R * 17.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 🔥 ·
2026-06-12 #84 Javier Assad R/R * 15.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM 🔥 ·
2026-06-09 #84 Andrew Alvarez · 18.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-08 #30 Miles Mikolas · 24.9% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-07 #11 Jameson Taillon · 28.6% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-06 #52 Ben Brown · 19.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-05 #33 Edward Cabrera · 25.7% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-06-04 #34 Coleman Crow · 20.9% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-03 #48 Robert Gasser · 14.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-02 #86 Kyle Harrison · 13.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-06-01 #38 Shane Drohan · 12.4% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-31 #54 Tanner Gordon · 15.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-05-30 #16 Ryan Feltner · 27.1% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-29 #48 Michael Lorenzen · 20.9% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-27 #101 Michael Soroka · 17.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-26 #123 Eduardo Rodriguez · 10.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-25 #38 Merrill Kelly · 19.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-24 #93 Noah Schultz · 10.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-23 #205 Bryan Hudson · 6.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-05-22 #158 Davis Martin · 8.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-20 #113 Merrill Kelly · 7.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-19 #153 Ryne Nelson · 6.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-18 #178 Zac Gallen · 8.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-17 #122 Jeffrey Springs · 6.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-16 #95 Luis Severino · 10.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-15 #116 Aaron Civale · 7.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-14 #83 Emmet Sheehan · 6.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-13 #106 Shohei Ohtani · 12.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-12 #102 Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 9.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-11 #21 Roki Sasaki · 18.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-10 #202 Bubba Chandler · 8.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-09 #231 Braxton Ashcraft · 8.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-08 #231 Carmen Mlodzinski · 7.7% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-06 #248 Matt Waldron · 11.0% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-05 #203 Walker Buehler · 11.7% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-04 #182 Randy Vásquez · 10.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-03 #139 Steven Matz · 8.1% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-02 #101 Griffin Jax · 11.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-01 #147 Shane McClanahan · 6.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-30 #144 Cristopher Sánchez · 7.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-29 #116 Cristopher Sánchez · 7.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-28 #50 Jesús Luzardo · 8.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-26 #213 Max Meyer · 10.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-25 #207 Eury Pérez · 9.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-24 #210 Sandy Alcantara · 8.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-23 #111 Tyler Glasnow · 8.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-22 #169 Shohei Ohtani · 11.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-21 #122 Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 12.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-19 #33 PJ Poulin · 18.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-18 #76 Cade Cavalli · 13.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-17 #90 Zack Littell · 20.8% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-16 #8 Chase Burns · 24.4% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-15 #36 Rhett Lowder · 12.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-11 #43 Chris Bassitt · 16.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-10 #50 Shane Baz · 17.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-04-08 #69 Aaron Nola · 12.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-07 #128 Cristopher Sánchez · 9.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-06 #63 Andrew Painter · 12.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-05 #129 Kodai Senga · 10.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-04 #115 Clay Holmes · 10.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-02 #27 David Peterson · 10.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-01 #145 Nick Pivetta · 10.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-31 #98 Germán Márquez · 12.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-03-30 #74 Walker Buehler · 13.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-28 #103 Will Warren · 12.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
Six home runs to freedom

Willy Adames's full profile is waiting

Upgrade to see today’s matchup, HR profile, rank trend, HR history, and every signal behind this batter profile.

75 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 516

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.