2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Ezequiel Tovar
Ezequiel Tovar
COL RHB
Ezequiel Tovar

Ezequiel Tovar

RHB
COL · 72 appearances tracked
5
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
6.9%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
8.8%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
88.0
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.121
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#19
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 12 games · 5 HRs in 72 games
Due (1×)
0.1×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
1
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
12
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
72
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
4
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
0
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
0%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#125.4
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
All Appearances
72 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-06-24 #165 Ranger Suarez R/L * 6.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-23 #127 Sonny Gray R/R * 10.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-22 #134 Jake Bennett R/L * 6.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-20 #164 Paul Skenes R/R * 10.6% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-19 #113 Bubba Chandler R/R * 8.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-17 #153 Javier Assad R/R * 6.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM 🔥 ·
2026-06-16 #102 Edward Cabrera R/R * 11.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 🔥 ·
2026-06-15 #82 Shota Imanaga R/L * 7.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 🔥 ·
2026-06-14 #85 Jeffrey Springs R/L * 8.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-13 #80 ATH Bullpen Proxy R/ 9.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-12 #110 Gage Jump R/L * 9.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-11 #19 Edward Cabrera · 22.8% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-10 #57 Shota Imanaga · 13.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-09 #71 Colin Rea · 14.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-06-07 #107 Shane Drohan · 11.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-06 #145 Jacob Misiorowski · 13.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-05 #71 Brandon Sproat · 16.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-03 #140 Walbert Ureña · 15.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-02 #87 Grayson Rodriguez · 11.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-01 #70 José Soriano · 13.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-31 #77 Robbie Ray · 13.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-30 #107 Adrian Houser · 17.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-29 #201 Logan Webb · 8.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-05-27 #208 Shohei Ohtani · 8.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-26 #92 Eric Lauer · 7.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-25 #147 Emmet Sheehan · 8.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-05-24 #240 Ryne Nelson · 6.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-22 #245 Michael Soroka · 6.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-21 #92 Eduardo Rodriguez · 4.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-20 #132 Jack Leiter · 8.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-19 #198 Tyler Alexander · 6.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-18 #172 MacKenzie Gore · 7.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-16 #134 Eduardo Rodriguez · 6.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-15 #129 Merrill Kelly · 7.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-14 #163 Mason Montgomery · 4.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-13 #252 Mitch Keller · 3.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-12 #244 Paul Skenes · 6.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-10 #91 Cristopher Sánchez · 7.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-09 #102 Aaron Nola · 10.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-08 #126 Jesús Luzardo · 7.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-06 #142 Freddy Peralta · 5.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-05 #230 Freddy Peralta · 5.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-03 #123 Spencer Strider · 6.6% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-02 #125 Chris Sale · 8.0% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-01 #152 Grant Holmes · 8.7% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-30 #127 Andrew Abbott · 8.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-29 #77 Brandon Williamson · 7.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-28 #72 Chase Burns · 8.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-26 #201 Nolan McLean · 8.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-26 #167 Kodai Senga · 7.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-25 #214 Kodai Senga · 7.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-24 #215 Freddy Peralta · 6.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-23 #39 Matt Waldron · 8.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-22 #55 Walker Buehler · 7.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-21 #52 Randy Vásquez · 6.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-20 #46 Justin Wrobleski · 5.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-18 #70 Emmet Sheehan · 10.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-17 #87 Tyler Glasnow · 8.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-16 #53 Ryan Weiss · 10.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-11 #184 Germán Márquez · 6.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-10 #174 Walker Buehler · 7.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-09 #73 Randy Vásquez · 5.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-08 #200 Cristian Javier · 5.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-07 #84 Mike Burrows · 12.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-06 #84 Cody Bolton · 10.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-05 #83 Taijuan Walker · 13.1% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-04-04 #126 Jesús Luzardo · 10.5% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-04-01 #168 Kevin Gausman · 10.2% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-03-31 #99 Max Scherzer · 12.3% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-03-29 #66 Max Meyer · 14.5% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-03-28 #159 Eury Pérez · 10.1% ⚪ D · — · · 💥
2026-03-27 #46 Sandy Alcantara · 12.6% ⚪ D · — · · ·
Six home runs to freedom

Ezequiel Tovar's full profile is waiting

Upgrade to see today’s matchup, HR profile, rank trend, HR history, and every signal behind this batter profile.

72 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 516

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.