2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Nolan McLean
Nolan McLean RHP NYM
120 matchups scored · 14 game days
12 HRs Allowed
10.0% HR Rate (Pool)
17.3% Overall HR/FB
2.95 FIP
2.97 xFIP
-0.01 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
0.86
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
17.3%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
84th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
73.4%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
2.95
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
15th pctile
2.97
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.01
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
48th pctile
10.0%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
120
Pool Matchups
12
HRs Allowed (Pool)
7
Top-15 Matchups
2
HRs to Top-15
10.0%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 9 1 2 22.2% 2.0 99.5mph 105.7mph 30.0° 408ft Up +12.2pp
Last 15 25 3 3 12.0% 1.0 98.3mph 104.5mph 27.3° 405ft Up +2.0pp
Last 30 40 5 3 7.5% 0.6 97.2mph 104.5mph 27.3° 405ft Down -2.5pp
Batted-Ball Damage
109 tracked BBE from 120 pool matchups
97.7
110.5
80
0
102.9
29.0°
390
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-24 Michael Busch 108.2mph 108.2mph 25° 398ft Yes
2026-06-24 Ian Happ 106.1mph · · · ·
2026-06-24 Dansby Swanson 105.1mph 103.1mph 35° 418ft Yes
2026-06-24 Pete Crow-Armstrong 103.8mph · · · ·
2026-06-24 Michael Conforto 103.7mph · · · ·
2026-06-24 Nico Hoerner 100.3mph · · · ·
2026-06-17 Sal Stewart 107.0mph · · · ·
2026-06-17 Matt McLain 104.5mph · · · ·
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
14 days · 12 total HRs
HRs Allowed
12 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-24 Michael Busch #153 41 Citi Field 108.2mph 25.0° 398ft
2026-06-24 Dansby Swanson #167 39 Citi Field 103.1mph 35.0° 418ft
2026-06-12 Matt Olson #14 72 Citi Field 102.1mph 22.0° 399ft
2026-05-25 JJ Bleday #37 61 Citi Field 105.6mph 29.0° 409.0ft
2026-05-25 Tyler Stephenson #167 34 Citi Field 103.3mph 27.0° 367.0ft
2026-05-19 James Wood #11 76 Nationals Park 101.3mph 24.0° 379.0ft
2026-05-19 José Tena #77 50 Nationals Park 98.8mph 27.0° 389.0ft
2026-05-14 Dillon Dingler #42 51 Citi Field 102.5mph 37.0° 379.0ft
2026-05-14 Gage Workman #189 2 Citi Field 104.0mph 24.0° 379.0ft
2026-05-08 Nolan Arenado #212 12 Chase Field 101.8mph 30.0° 405.0ft
2026-04-21 Byron Buxton #125 36 Citi Field 101.2mph 34.0° 374.0ft
2026-03-29 Brandon Lowe #27 46 Citi Field 103.4mph 34.0° 390.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Sinker 481 34.5% -2.7 81.7 9.8° 3
Fastball 251 18.0% -0.8 82.8 34.2° 2
Sweeper 240 17.2% +2.4 77.8 8.7° 2
Curveball 160 11.5% -1.1 75.7 -13.4° 0
Cutter 151 10.8% +3.5 83.1 19.7° 1
Changeup 103 7.4% -0.8 70.6 2.0° 0
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
73.4%
73.4%
All Scored Matchups
120 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-24 Nico Hoerner #236 23 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-24 Pedro Ramírez #191 35 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-24 Dansby Swanson #167 39 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-24 Michael Busch #153 41 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-24 Seiya Suzuki #132 43 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-24 Miguel Amaya #126 44 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-24 Michael Conforto #72 52 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-24 Ian Happ #47 58 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-24 Pete Crow-Armstrong #29 61 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-17 Jose Trevino #184 33 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-17 Eugenio Suárez #81 52 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-17 Spencer Steer #66 55 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-17 Nathaniel Lowe #51 57 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-17 Sal Stewart #48 58 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-17 Matt McLain #45 59 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-17 Noelvi Marte #20 70 🟡 B 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-17 JJ Bleday #13 72 🟡 B 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-12 Ha-Seong Kim #234 14 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-12 Austin Wynns #229 16 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-12 Mike Yastrzemski #189 31 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-12 Dominic Smith #166 37 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-12 Ozzie Albies #149 39 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-12 Austin Riley #134 42 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-12 Mauricio Dubón #98 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Matt Olson #14 72 🟡 B 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-06 Miguel Andújar #197 30 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 Xander Bogaerts #181 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 Jackson Merrill #155 38 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 Gavin Sheets #83 49 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 Manny Machado #67 53 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-06 Ty France #34 63 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-31 Jakob Marsee #250 23 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-31 Connor Norby #212 31 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-31 Otto Lopez #200 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-31 Javier Sanoja #191 35 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-31 Kyle Stowers #175 38 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-31 Xavier Edwards #162 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-31 Liam Hicks #160 40 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-31 Owen Caissie #112 48 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-31 Esteury Ruiz #111 48 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-25 Tyler Stephenson #167 34 ⚪ D ❄ COLD 💥
2026-05-25 Eugenio Suárez #166 34 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-25 Blake Dunn #140 38 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-25 Matt McLain #100 45 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-25 Spencer Steer #99 45 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-25 Sal Stewart #52 56 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-25 JJ Bleday #37 61 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-25 Elly De La Cruz #24 64 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-25 Nathaniel Lowe #11 71 🟡 B 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-19 Nasim Nuñez #259 6 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-19 Jorbit Vivas #223 23 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-19 Dylan Crews #220 24 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-19 Drew Millas #199 30 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-19 Luis García Jr. #133 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-19 Daylen Lile #96 46 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-19 José Tena #77 50 🟠 C 🔥 HOT 💥
2026-05-19 CJ Abrams #69 52 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-19 James Wood #11 76 🟡 B ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-14 Gage Workman #189 2 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-14 Zach McKinstry #181 9 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-14 Colt Keith #176 12 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-14 Wenceel Pérez #161 19 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-14 Kevin McGonigle #122 30 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-14 Jake Rogers #117 31 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-14 Riley Greene #85 37 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-14 Spencer Torkelson #43 51 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-14 Dillon Dingler #42 51 🟠 C 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-08 Jose Fernandez #229 10 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-08 Jorge Barrosa #214 12 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-08 Alek Thomas #213 12 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-08 Nolan Arenado #212 12 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-08 Ketel Marte #209 13 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-08 Adrian Del Castillo #194 17 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-08 Geraldo Perdomo #190 18 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-08 Ildemaro Vargas #176 20 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-08 Corbin Carroll #151 23 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-02 Jo Adell #216 15 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-02 Logan O'Hoppe #202 18 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-02 Yoán Moncada #167 23 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-02 Zach Neto #166 23 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-02 Nolan Schanuel #161 24 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-02 Josh Lowe #144 27 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-02 Jorge Soler #126 29 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-02 Oswald Peraza #120 30 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-02 Mike Trout #87 34 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-26 Jordan Beck #268 17 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-26 Brett Sullivan #251 23 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-26 Jake McCarthy #240 26 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-26 Troy Johnston #235 27 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-26 Edouard Julien #216 30 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-26 Kyle Karros #208 31 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-26 Ezequiel Tovar #201 32 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-26 TJ Rumfield #186 35 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-26 Mickey Moniak #89 53 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-21 Luke Keaschall #230 14 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-21 Victor Caratini #227 15 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-21 Brooks Lee #204 22 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-21 Austin Martin #182 26 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-21 Matt Wallner #166 28 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-21 Josh Bell #137 34 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-21 Trevor Larnach #130 35 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-21 Byron Buxton #125 36 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-04-21 Ryan Jeffers #94 43 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-14 Michael Conforto #78 35 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-14 Mookie Betts #51 42 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-14 Will Smith #49 54 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-14 Freddie Freeman #26 57 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-14 Andy Pages #25 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-14 Teoscar Hernández #15 50 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-14 Teoscar Hernandez #14 50 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-14 Shohei Ohtani #3 71 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-03-29 Jake Mangum #164 20 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-03-29 Nick Gonzales #156 26 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-03-29 Jared Triolo #144 30 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-03-29 Henry Davis #137 32 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-29 Spencer Horwitz #123 35 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-03-29 Bryan Reynolds #89 37 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-03-29 Ryan O'Hearn #87 35 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-29 Oneil Cruz #49 44 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-03-29 Brandon Lowe #27 46 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
Six home runs to freedom

Nolan McLean's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see vulnerability signals, today’s threat breakdown, recent splits, batted-ball damage, and every scored matchup.

120 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 516

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.