Nolan McLean
RHP
NYM
12
HRs Allowed
10.0%
HR Rate (Pool)
17.3%
Overall HR/FB
2.95
FIP
2.97
xFIP
-0.01
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
0.86
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
17.3%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
84th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
73.4%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
2.95
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
15th pctile
2.97
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.01
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
48th pctile
10.0%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
120
Pool Matchups
12
HRs Allowed (Pool)
7
Top-15 Matchups
2
HRs to Top-15
10.0%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 22.2% | 2.0 | 99.5mph | 105.7mph | 30.0° | 408ft | Up +12.2pp |
| Last 15 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 12.0% | 1.0 | 98.3mph | 104.5mph | 27.3° | 405ft | Up +2.0pp |
| Last 30 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 7.5% | 0.6 | 97.2mph | 104.5mph | 27.3° | 405ft | Down -2.5pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
97.7
Avg Max EV
110.5
Max EV Allowed
80
Hard-Hit Proxy · 73.4%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
102.9
Avg HR EV
29.0°
Avg HR Launch
390
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Michael Busch | 108.2mph | 108.2mph | 25° | 398ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-24 | Ian Happ | 106.1mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-24 | Dansby Swanson | 105.1mph | 103.1mph | 35° | 418ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-24 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 103.8mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-24 | Michael Conforto | 103.7mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-24 | Nico Hoerner | 100.3mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Sal Stewart | 107.0mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Matt McLain | 104.5mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Michael Busch | #153 | 41 | Citi Field | 108.2mph | 25.0° | 398ft |
| 2026-06-24 | Dansby Swanson | #167 | 39 | Citi Field | 103.1mph | 35.0° | 418ft |
| 2026-06-12 | Matt Olson | #14 | 72 | Citi Field | 102.1mph | 22.0° | 399ft |
| 2026-05-25 | JJ Bleday | #37 | 61 | Citi Field | 105.6mph | 29.0° | 409.0ft |
| 2026-05-25 | Tyler Stephenson | #167 | 34 | Citi Field | 103.3mph | 27.0° | 367.0ft |
| 2026-05-19 | James Wood | #11 | 76 | Nationals Park | 101.3mph | 24.0° | 379.0ft |
| 2026-05-19 | José Tena | #77 | 50 | Nationals Park | 98.8mph | 27.0° | 389.0ft |
| 2026-05-14 | Dillon Dingler | #42 | 51 | Citi Field | 102.5mph | 37.0° | 379.0ft |
| 2026-05-14 | Gage Workman | #189 | 2 | Citi Field | 104.0mph | 24.0° | 379.0ft |
| 2026-05-08 | Nolan Arenado | #212 | 12 | Chase Field | 101.8mph | 30.0° | 405.0ft |
| 2026-04-21 | Byron Buxton | #125 | 36 | Citi Field | 101.2mph | 34.0° | 374.0ft |
| 2026-03-29 | Brandon Lowe | #27 | 46 | Citi Field | 103.4mph | 34.0° | 390.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 481 | 34.5% | -2.7 | 81.7 | 9.8° | 3 |
| Fastball | 251 | 18.0% | -0.8 | 82.8 | 34.2° | 2 |
| Sweeper | 240 | 17.2% | +2.4 | 77.8 | 8.7° | 2 |
| Curveball | 160 | 11.5% | -1.1 | 75.7 | -13.4° | 0 |
| Cutter | 151 | 10.8% | +3.5 | 83.1 | 19.7° | 1 |
| Changeup | 103 | 7.4% | -0.8 | 70.6 | 2.0° | 0 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
73.4%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Nico Hoerner | #236 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-24 | Pedro Ramírez | #191 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-24 | Dansby Swanson | #167 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-24 | Michael Busch | #153 | 41 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-24 | Seiya Suzuki | #132 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-24 | Miguel Amaya | #126 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-24 | Michael Conforto | #72 | 52 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-24 | Ian Happ | #47 | 58 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-24 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | #29 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Jose Trevino | #184 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Eugenio Suárez | #81 | 52 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Spencer Steer | #66 | 55 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Nathaniel Lowe | #51 | 57 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Sal Stewart | #48 | 58 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Matt McLain | #45 | 59 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Noelvi Marte | #20 | 70 | 🟡 B | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-17 | JJ Bleday | #13 | 72 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Ha-Seong Kim | #234 | 14 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Austin Wynns | #229 | 16 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Mike Yastrzemski | #189 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Dominic Smith | #166 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Ozzie Albies | #149 | 39 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Austin Riley | #134 | 42 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Mauricio Dubón | #98 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Matt Olson | #14 | 72 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-06-06 | Miguel Andújar | #197 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Xander Bogaerts | #181 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Jackson Merrill | #155 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Gavin Sheets | #83 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Manny Machado | #67 | 53 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Ty France | #34 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Jakob Marsee | #250 | 23 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Connor Norby | #212 | 31 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Otto Lopez | #200 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Javier Sanoja | #191 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Kyle Stowers | #175 | 38 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Xavier Edwards | #162 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Liam Hicks | #160 | 40 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Owen Caissie | #112 | 48 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Esteury Ruiz | #111 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Tyler Stephenson | #167 | 34 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-05-25 | Eugenio Suárez | #166 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Blake Dunn | #140 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Matt McLain | #100 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Spencer Steer | #99 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Sal Stewart | #52 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-25 | JJ Bleday | #37 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-25 | Elly De La Cruz | #24 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Nathaniel Lowe | #11 | 71 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Nasim Nuñez | #259 | 6 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Jorbit Vivas | #223 | 23 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Dylan Crews | #220 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Drew Millas | #199 | 30 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Luis García Jr. | #133 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Daylen Lile | #96 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-19 | José Tena | #77 | 50 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | 💥 |
| 2026-05-19 | CJ Abrams | #69 | 52 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | James Wood | #11 | 76 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-14 | Gage Workman | #189 | 2 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-14 | Zach McKinstry | #181 | 9 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-14 | Colt Keith | #176 | 12 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-14 | Wenceel Pérez | #161 | 19 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-14 | Kevin McGonigle | #122 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-14 | Jake Rogers | #117 | 31 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-14 | Riley Greene | #85 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-14 | Spencer Torkelson | #43 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-14 | Dillon Dingler | #42 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-08 | Jose Fernandez | #229 | 10 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Jorge Barrosa | #214 | 12 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Alek Thomas | #213 | 12 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Nolan Arenado | #212 | 12 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ketel Marte | #209 | 13 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Adrian Del Castillo | #194 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Geraldo Perdomo | #190 | 18 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Ildemaro Vargas | #176 | 20 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Corbin Carroll | #151 | 23 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Jo Adell | #216 | 15 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Logan O'Hoppe | #202 | 18 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Yoán Moncada | #167 | 23 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Zach Neto | #166 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Nolan Schanuel | #161 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Josh Lowe | #144 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Jorge Soler | #126 | 29 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Oswald Peraza | #120 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Mike Trout | #87 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Jordan Beck | #268 | 17 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Brett Sullivan | #251 | 23 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Jake McCarthy | #240 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Troy Johnston | #235 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Edouard Julien | #216 | 30 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Kyle Karros | #208 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Ezequiel Tovar | #201 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | TJ Rumfield | #186 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Mickey Moniak | #89 | 53 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Luke Keaschall | #230 | 14 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Victor Caratini | #227 | 15 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Brooks Lee | #204 | 22 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Austin Martin | #182 | 26 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Matt Wallner | #166 | 28 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Josh Bell | #137 | 34 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Trevor Larnach | #130 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Byron Buxton | #125 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-21 | Ryan Jeffers | #94 | 43 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Michael Conforto | #78 | 35 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Mookie Betts | #51 | 42 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Will Smith | #49 | 54 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Freddie Freeman | #26 | 57 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Andy Pages | #25 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Teoscar Hernández | #15 | 50 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Teoscar Hernandez | #14 | 50 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Shohei Ohtani | #3 | 71 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Jake Mangum | #164 | 20 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Nick Gonzales | #156 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Jared Triolo | #144 | 30 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Henry Davis | #137 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Spencer Horwitz | #123 | 35 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Bryan Reynolds | #89 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Ryan O'Hearn | #87 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Oneil Cruz | #49 | 44 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Brandon Lowe | #27 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |