2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Nico Hoerner
Nico Hoerner
CHC RHB
Nico Hoerner

Nico Hoerner

RHB
CHC · 79 appearances tracked
4
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
5.1%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
8.2%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
85.7
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.127
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#46
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 4 games · 4 HRs in 79 games
Due (1×)
14.2×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
57
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
4
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
79
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
1
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
0
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
0%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#172.1
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
All Appearances
79 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-06-24 #236 Nolan McLean R/R * 7.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-24 #232 Sean Manaea R/R * 7.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-23 #202 Kodai Senga R/R * 8.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-22 #191 Kodai Senga R/R * 8.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-21 #218 Dylan Cease R/R * 6.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-20 #198 Patrick Corbin R/L * 8.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-19 #205 Kevin Gausman R/R * 7.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-17 #216 COL Bullpen Proxy R/ 7.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-16 #203 Ryan Feltner R/R * 7.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-15 #133 Michael Lorenzen R/R * 6.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-13 #216 Trevor McDonald R/R * 7.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-12 #227 Landen Roupp R/R * 6.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-11 #85 Ryan Feltner · 7.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-10 #140 Michael Lorenzen · 7.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-09 #139 Tomoyuki Sugano · 7.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-07 #212 Trevor McDonald · 8.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-06 #223 Landen Roupp · 7.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-05 #193 Robbie Ray · 8.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-04 #129 J.T. Ginn · 6.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-03 #229 Jeffrey Springs · 8.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-02 #238 Gage Jump · 6.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-31 #236 Matthew Liberatore · 7.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-30 #213 Kyle Leahy · 7.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-29 #227 Andre Pallante · 7.1% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-28 #106 Paul Skenes · 6.3% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-27 #239 Bubba Chandler · 5.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-26 #252 Braxton Ashcraft · 5.5% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-24 #263 Peter Lambert · 7.7% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-23 #259 Kai-Wei Teng · 5.4% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-22 #235 Spencer Arrighetti · 6.3% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-20 #233 Kyle Harrison · 10.3% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-19 #217 Jacob Misiorowski · 7.3% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-18 #199 Brandon Sproat · 9.3% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-17 #186 Erick Fedde · 11.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-16 #234 Davis Martin · 4.7% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-15 #224 Sean Burke · 8.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-14 #138 Chris Sale · 11.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-13 #91 JR Ritchie · 9.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-12 #128 Grant Holmes · 8.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-10 #197 Jacob deGrom · 7.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-09 #176 Jack Leiter · 7.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-08 #158 Kumar Rocker · 8.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-07 #84 Rhett Lowder · 5.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-06 #112 Brady Singer · 11.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-05 #110 Andrew Abbott · 14.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-04 #82 Chase Petty · 8.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-03 #53 Merrill Kelly · 8.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-02 #64 Ryne Nelson · 9.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-01 #77 Zac Gallen · 10.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-29 #135 Matt Waldron · 10.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-28 #164 Walker Buehler · 11.5% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-04-27 #89 Randy Vásquez · 10.4% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-04-26 #93 Justin Wrobleski · 14.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-25 #70 Roki Sasaki · 18.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-24 #89 Emmet Sheehan · 18.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-23 #46 Cristopher Sánchez · 13.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-22 #152 Kyle Backhus · 24.9% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-21 #174 Jesús Luzardo · 14.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-04-20 #129 Aaron Nola · 16.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-19 #172 Tobias Myers · 16.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-18 #159 Freddy Peralta · 19.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-17 #181 Kodai Senga · 11.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-04-15 #75 Jesús Luzardo · 6.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-04-14 #98 Aaron Nola · 5.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-13 #83 Cristopher Sánchez · 0.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-11 #231 Braxton Ashcraft · 2.7% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-10 #233 Carmen Mlodzinski · 3.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-08 #229 Joe Boyle · 3.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-04-07 #228 Drew Rasmussen · 4.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-06 #174 Shane McClanahan · 5.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-05 #228 Parker Messick · 6.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-05 #204 Slade Cecconi · 7.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-04 #183 Slade Cecconi · 7.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-01 #227 Yusei Kikuchi · 6.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-31 #196 José Soriano · 7.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-30 #177 Ryan Johnson · 9.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-29 #159 Jake Irvin · 8.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-28 #221 Miles Mikolas · 7.1% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-03-26 #135 Cade Cavalli · 8.5% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
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