2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Victor Caratini
Victor Caratini
MIN SHB
Victor Caratini

Victor Caratini

SHB
MIN · 53 appearances tracked
4
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
7.5%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
12.9%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
88.5
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.089
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#30
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 9 games · 4 HRs in 53 games
Due (1×)
0.1×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
1
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
9
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
53
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
2
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
1
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
25%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#167.1
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
HR Days (While Top 50)
1 homers captured
DateRankPitcherStadium B/P WT BP EV Distance
2026-04-13 #38 George Kirby T-Mobile Park · · · 106.0 mph 423.0 ft
All Appearances
53 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-06-24 #142 Shohei Ohtani S/R * 14.4% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ⚠️ ·
2026-06-23 #170 Justin Wrobleski S/L * 10.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-22 #116 Eric Lauer S/L * 13.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-04 #151 Seth Lugo · 5.6% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · 💥
2026-06-03 #205 Erick Fedde · 6.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-01 #128 David Sandlin · 7.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-30 #246 Mitch Keller · 7.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-28 #81 Davis Martin · 9.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-26 #178 Sean Burke · 9.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-24 #209 Sonny Gray · 8.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-23 #143 Jovani Morán · 8.8% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-22 #216 Payton Tolle · 6.5% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-20 #212 Mike Burrows · 9.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-05-19 #221 Jason Alexander · 5.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-18 #198 Tatsuya Imai · 8.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-17 #225 Robert Gasser · 6.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-14 #157 Braxton Garrett · 7.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-13 #168 Max Meyer · 7.0% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-12 #182 Eury Pérez · 7.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-10 #172 Gavin Williams · 8.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-09 #208 Tanner Bibee · 9.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-08 #225 Parker Messick · 8.6% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-07 #161 Jake Irvin · 7.8% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-06 #224 Miles Mikolas · 9.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-05 #252 Cade Cavalli · 6.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-02 #237 Dylan Cease · 6.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-01 #245 Patrick Corbin · 7.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-30 #171 Kevin Gausman · 6.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-28 #225 Logan Gilbert · 7.0% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-27 #139 Luis Castillo · 6.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-25 #208 Shane McClanahan · 6.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-24 #196 Drew Rasmussen · 9.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-22 #233 Clay Holmes · 6.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-21 #227 Nolan McLean · 6.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-19 #242 Brady Singer · 7.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-18 #246 Andrew Abbott · 7.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-17 #211 Brandon Williamson · 7.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-13 #38 George Kirby · 8.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-04-12 #106 Logan Gilbert · 4.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-11 #190 Luis Castillo · 5.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-10 #150 Patrick Corbin · 8.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-08 #116 Michael Lorenzen · 9.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-07 #137 Kyle Freeland · 8.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-06 #117 Ryan Feltner · 8.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-05 #74 Jacob Lopez · 13.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-04 #69 Luis Morales · 13.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-01 #101 Garrett Crochet · 12.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-31 #145 Brayan Bello · 10.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-30 #169 Ranger Suarez · 9.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-29 #30 Shane Baz · 16.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-28 #115 Reid Detmers · 11.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-27 #71 Yusei Kikuchi · 11.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-26 #59 José Soriano · 12.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
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