2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Otto Lopez
Otto Lopez
MIA RHB
Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez

RHB
MIA · 78 appearances tracked
5
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
6.4%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
11.3%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
91.1
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.149
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#17
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 19 games · 5 HRs in 78 games
Due (1×)
0.0×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
0
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
19
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
78
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
6
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
0
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
0%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#136.1
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
All Appearances
78 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-06-24 #185 Jacob deGrom R/R * 7.9% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-23 #166 Cal Quantrill R/R * 7.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-22 #196 Tyler Alexander R/L * 5.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-21 #198 Logan Webb R/R * 6.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-20 #194 Trevor McDonald R/R * 5.4% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ⚠️ ·
2026-06-19 #204 Landen Roupp R/R * 6.8% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ⚠️ ·
2026-06-17 #149 Andrew Painter R/R * 9.4% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ⚠️ ·
2026-06-16 #168 Jesús Luzardo R/L * 8.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-15 #112 Zack Wheeler R/R * 8.6% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ⚠️ ·
2026-06-14 #197 Paul Skenes R/R * 6.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-13 #173 Bubba Chandler R/R * 6.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-12 #196 Braxton Ashcraft R/R * 6.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-11 #59 Merrill Kelly · 8.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-10 #130 Ryne Nelson · 7.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-09 #129 Zac Gallen · 9.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-07 #125 Griffin Jax · 8.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-06 #158 Shane McClanahan · 6.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-05 #146 Drew Rasmussen · 7.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-03 #154 Andrew Alvarez · 7.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-02 #165 Richard Lovelady · 7.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-06-01 #107 Cade Cavalli · 6.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-31 #200 Nolan McLean · 9.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-30 #221 Christian Scott · 7.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-29 #179 Freddy Peralta · 6.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-27 #207 Kevin Gausman · 9.1% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-26 #187 Braydon Fisher · 9.1% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-25 #199 Trey Yesavage · 6.3% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-24 #230 Christian Scott · 8.7% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-23 #214 Freddy Peralta · 7.6% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-22 #142 Tobias Myers · 11.0% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-21 #60 Spencer Strider · 9.3% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-20 #123 Chris Sale · 8.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-19 #91 Martín Pérez · 9.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-18 #98 JR Ritchie · 7.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-17 #156 Drew Rasmussen · 9.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-16 #127 Nick Martinez · 10.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-15 #141 Ian Seymour · 7.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-13 #93 Simeon Woods Richardson · 11.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-12 #130 Bailey Ober · 9.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-10 #129 Cade Cavalli · 7.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-09 #95 Zack Littell · 10.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-08 #113 Foster Griffin · 8.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-07 #117 Cade Povich · 8.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-06 #188 Brandon Young · 10.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-05 #169 Chris Bassitt · 7.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-05-04 #133 Aaron Nola · 12.5% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-03 #160 Jesús Luzardo · 8.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-02 #163 Andrew Painter · 10.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-01 #166 Zack Wheeler · 10.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-29 #43 Tyler Glasnow · 18.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-28 #45 Shohei Ohtani · 12.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-27 #17 Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 13.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-26 #200 Landen Roupp · 8.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-25 #182 Robbie Ray · 10.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-24 #176 Adrian Houser · 10.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-22 #48 Kyle Leahy · 14.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-21 #56 Dustin May · 13.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-20 #37 Michael McGreevy · 12.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-19 #71 Jacob Misiorowski · 16.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-18 #67 Brandon Woodruff · 15.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-15 #126 Bryce Elder · 0.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-14 #82 Reynaldo López · 7.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-13 #48 Grant Holmes · 6.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-12 #94 Tarik Skubal · 5.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-04-11 #185 Casey Mize · 6.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-10 #190 Keider Montero · 6.7% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-04-09 #55 Rhett Lowder · 8.0% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-04-08 #178 Brady Singer · 6.4% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-04-07 #190 Andrew Abbott · 5.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-06 #128 Brandon Williamson · 7.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-05 #141 Max Fried · 10.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-04 #61 Ryan Weathers · 13.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-01 #140 Shane Smith · 11.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-03-31 #135 Erick Fedde · 10.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-30 #115 Davis Martin · 11.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-29 #120 Jose Quintana · 11.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-28 #91 Michael Lorenzen · 12.6% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-03-27 #55 Kyle Freeland · 12.2% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
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