2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Luis García Jr.

Luis García Jr.

WSH · 41 appearances tracked
3
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
7.3%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
8.7%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
92.0
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.134
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#45
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 10 games · 3 HRs in 41 games
Due (1×)
0.3×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
3
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
10
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
41
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
3
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
0
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
0%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#130.0
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
All Appearances
41 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-06-03 #107 Max Meyer · 10.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-02 #126 Lake Bachar · 11.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-01 #68 Sandy Alcantara · 11.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-31 #118 Griffin Canning · 12.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-30 #155 Michael King · 9.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-29 #129 Lucas Giolito · 8.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-27 #103 Gavin Williams · 10.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-25 #122 Tanner Bibee · 9.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-23 #144 Grant Holmes · 8.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-21 #47 David Peterson · 11.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-20 #105 Zach Thornton · 10.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-19 #133 Nolan McLean · 10.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-18 #143 Christian Scott · 9.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-17 #144 Brandon Young · 12.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-16 #125 Chris Bassitt · 13.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-15 #148 Shane Baz · 11.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-14 #53 Chase Burns · 27.3% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-12 #66 Brady Singer · 10.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-05-10 #108 Sandy Alcantara · 6.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-09 #163 Janson Junk · 8.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-06 #175 Bailey Ober · 7.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-05 #180 Taj Bradley · 6.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-02 #147 Kyle Harrison · 7.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-01 #45 Jacob Misiorowski · 8.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-30 #128 Freddy Peralta · 7.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-29 #244 David Peterson · 6.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-28 #178 Clay Holmes · 7.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-26 #230 Bryan Hudson · 5.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-25 #194 Noah Schultz · 7.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-24 #178 Bryan Hudson · 6.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-23 #49 JR Ritchie · 8.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-21 #93 Reynaldo López · 8.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-20 #89 Bryce Elder · 7.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-19 #102 Robbie Ray · 9.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-18 #149 Adrian Houser · 7.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-17 #160 Logan Webb · 6.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-16 #121 Braxton Ashcraft · 4.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-14 #151 Mitch Keller · 0.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-12 #64 Brandon Woodruff · 9.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-10 #165 Aaron Ashby · 7.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-28 #180 Cade Horton · 9.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
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