2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams
WSH LHB
CJ Abrams

CJ Abrams

LHB
WSH · 57 appearances tracked
10
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
17.5%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
25.6%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
90.1
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.241
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#7
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 6 games · 10 HRs in 57 games
Due (1×)
0.3×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
2
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
6
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
57
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
29
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
7
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
70%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#56.9
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
HR Days (While Top 50)
7 homers captured
DateRankPitcherStadium B/P WT BP EV Distance
2026-04-23 #7 JR Ritchie Nationals Park · · · 107.1 mph 426.0 ft
2026-04-30 #43 Freddy Peralta Citi Field · · · 105.0 mph 403.0 ft
2026-05-20 #50 Zach Thornton Nationals Park · · · 103.1 mph 389.0 ft
2026-05-25 #33 Tanner Bibee Progressive Field · · · 109.8 mph 403.0 ft
2026-06-19 #41 Griffin Jax Tropicana Field L/R 106.2 mph 412 ft
2026-06-20 #40 Ian Seymour Tropicana Field L/L 102.8 mph 378 ft
2026-06-21 #45 Nick Martinez Tropicana Field L/R ⚠️ 101.2 mph 368 ft
All Appearances
57 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-06-23 #45 Jesús Luzardo L/L * 31.3% 🟢 A 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-22 #66 Tim Mayza L/L * 23.3% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-21 #45 Nick Martinez L/R * 24.7% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-20 #40 Ian Seymour L/L * 17.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-19 #41 Griffin Jax L/R * 21.9% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-17 #64 Luinder Avila L/R * 19.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-16 #83 Michael Wacha L/R * 19.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-15 #23 Mitch Spence L/R * 22.1% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-14 #63 Emerson Hancock L/R * 21.3% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-13 #42 Luis Castillo L/R * 22.0% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-12 #89 Bryce Miller L/R * 16.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-09 #62 Adrian Houser · 20.0% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-07 #73 Michael Soroka · 18.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-06-06 #76 Eduardo Rodriguez · 12.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-03 #45 Max Meyer · 25.0% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-02 #30 Lake Bachar · 33.2% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-01 #20 Sandy Alcantara · 32.0% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-31 #27 Griffin Canning · 45.2% 🔥 A+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-30 #35 Michael King · 32.3% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-29 #18 Lucas Giolito · 28.4% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-27 #28 Gavin Williams · 31.6% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-26 #26 Joey Cantillo · 20.2% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-25 #33 Tanner Bibee · 20.1% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-24 #38 Martín Pérez · 14.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-23 #50 Grant Holmes · 18.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-21 #27 David Peterson · 13.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-20 #50 Zach Thornton · 18.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-19 #69 Nolan McLean · 17.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-18 #66 Christian Scott · 14.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-17 #71 Brandon Young · 17.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-16 #54 Chris Bassitt · 18.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-15 #65 Shane Baz · 14.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-14 #16 Chase Burns · 43.8% 🔥 A+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-12 #9 Brady Singer · 33.6% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-10 #73 Sandy Alcantara · 18.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-09 #119 Janson Junk · 29.4% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-07 #53 Simeon Woods Richardson · 34.8% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-06 #182 Bailey Ober · 27.0% 🔵 C+ ❄ COLD · · 💥
2026-05-05 #45 Taj Bradley · 25.3% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-02 #66 Kyle Harrison · 12.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-01 #32 Jacob Misiorowski · 28.3% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-30 #43 Freddy Peralta · 20.5% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-04-29 #191 David Peterson · 9.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-28 #111 Clay Holmes · 24.3% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-26 #95 Bryan Hudson · 14.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-25 #76 Noah Schultz · 28.1% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-24 #76 Bryan Hudson · 25.2% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-23 #7 JR Ritchie · 35.1% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-04-21 #12 Reynaldo López · 22.0% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-20 #23 Bryce Elder · 25.9% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-19 #23 Robbie Ray · 36.2% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-18 #54 Adrian Houser · 31.4% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-17 #74 Logan Webb · 28.3% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-16 #56 Braxton Ashcraft · 17.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-14 #137 Mitch Keller · 1.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-04-12 #31 Brandon Woodruff · 17.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-10 #77 Aaron Ashby · 13.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
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