2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
SD RHB
Manny Machado

Manny Machado

RHB
SD · 73 appearances tracked
13
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
17.8%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
22.4%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
89.3
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.164
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#34
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 6 games · 13 HRs in 73 games
Due (1×)
0.3×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
2
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
6
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
73
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
8
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
3
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
23%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#114.3
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
HR Days (While Top 50)
3 homers captured
DateRankPitcherStadium B/P WT BP EV Distance
2026-05-30 #46 Foster Griffin Nationals Park · · · 102.4 mph 362 ft
2026-06-04 #49 Zack Wheeler Citizens Bank Park · · · 107.3 mph 435 ft
2026-06-13 #34 Albert Suárez Camden Yards R/R 106.2 mph 429 ft
All Appearances
73 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-06-24 #87 Martín Pérez R/L * 18.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-23 #64 JR Ritchie R/R * 18.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-22 #75 Grant Holmes R/R * 13.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-21 #88 Nathan Eovaldi R/R * 13.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-20 #117 MacKenzie Gore R/L * 11.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-19 #109 Jacob deGrom R/R * 11.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-17 #98 Kyle Leahy R/R * 10.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-16 #125 Andre Pallante R/R * 11.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-15 #93 Dustin May R/R * 9.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-14 #55 Trevor Rogers R/L * 14.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-13 #34 Trey Gibson R/R * 14.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-12 #68 Shane Baz R/R * 14.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-10 #56 Brady Singer · 14.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-09 #70 Chase Burns · 16.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-08 #38 Andrew Abbott · 20.9% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-07 #105 Huascar Brazobán · 20.3% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-06 #67 Nolan McLean · 24.4% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-05 #78 Christian Scott · 19.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-04 #49 Zack Wheeler · 18.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-06-03 #69 Cristopher Sánchez · 18.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-02 #40 Aaron Nola · 24.7% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-31 #42 Zack Littell · 20.8% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-30 #46 Foster Griffin · 22.0% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-05-29 #53 Paxton Schultz · 19.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-27 #104 Cristopher Sánchez · 15.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-26 #105 Aaron Nola · 13.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-25 #134 Jesús Luzardo · 13.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-24 #113 Luis Medina · 13.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-22 #181 Jeffrey Springs · 11.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-20 #186 Shohei Ohtani · 10.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-19 #195 Emmet Sheehan · 6.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-05-18 #196 Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 10.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-17 #170 George Kirby · 11.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-16 #158 Logan Gilbert · 11.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-15 #158 Emerson Hancock · 11.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-14 #86 Kyle Harrison · 14.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-13 #114 Jacob Misiorowski · 14.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-12 #58 Brandon Sproat · 18.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-10 #76 Kyle Leahy · 18.7% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-09 #159 Dustin May · 17.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-05-08 #119 Michael McGreevy · 18.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-07 #97 Matthew Liberatore · 17.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-06 #193 Adrian Houser · 22.0% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-05 #114 Logan Webb · 13.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-04 #173 Trevor McDonald · 13.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-03 #158 Anthony Kay · 15.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-05-02 #160 Sean Burke · 14.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-01 #174 Noah Schultz · 13.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-29 #154 Jameson Taillon · 17.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-28 #176 Edward Cabrera · 9.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-27 #105 Matthew Boyd · 12.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-26 #177 Ryne Nelson · 7.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-04-25 #199 Zac Gallen · 7.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-23 #47 Ryan Feltner · 10.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-22 #63 Tomoyuki Sugano · 10.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-19 #115 Reid Detmers · 9.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-18 #71 Yusei Kikuchi · 12.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-17 #77 José Soriano · 11.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-16 #120 Luis Castillo · 11.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-15 #41 Emerson Hancock · 11.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-14 #125 Bryan Woo · 1.8% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-04-12 #54 Kyle Freeland · 12.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-11 #123 Ryan Feltner · 9.0% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · 💥
2026-04-10 #119 Tomoyuki Sugano · 10.9% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-08 #158 Mitch Keller · 7.2% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-07 #198 Paul Skenes · 5.5% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-06 #156 Bubba Chandler · 5.9% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-05 #151 Ranger Suarez · 9.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-04-04 #217 Connelly Early · 1.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-01 #185 Adrian Houser · 9.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-03-31 #151 Logan Webb · 10.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-03-30 #144 Landen Roupp · 10.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-03-28 #112 Jack Flaherty · 11.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
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