2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Connor Norby
Connor Norby
MIA RHB
Connor Norby

Connor Norby

RHB
MIA · 63 appearances tracked
4
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
6.3%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
13.4%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
87.6
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.147
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#23
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 7 games · 4 HRs in 63 games
Due (1×)
3.3×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
23
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
7
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
63
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
4
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
1
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
25%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#135.3
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
HR Days (While Top 50)
1 homers captured
DateRankPitcherStadium B/P WT BP EV Distance
2026-04-13 #46 Grant Holmes Truist Park · · · 104.9 mph 380.0 ft
All Appearances
63 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-06-23 #162 Cal Quantrill R/R * 7.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-21 #196 Logan Webb R/R * 6.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-19 #181 Landen Roupp R/R * 9.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-16 #149 Jesús Luzardo R/L * 11.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-14 #180 Paul Skenes R/R * 7.1% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-13 #161 Bubba Chandler R/R * 6.3% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-09 #104 Zac Gallen · 9.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-06 #176 Shane McClanahan · 7.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-03 #153 Andrew Alvarez · 9.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-01 #96 Cade Cavalli · 7.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-31 #212 Nolan McLean · 11.2% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-29 #177 Freddy Peralta · 7.6% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-27 #182 Kevin Gausman · 10.5% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-26 #153 Braydon Fisher · 10.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-24 #193 Christian Scott · 10.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-23 #161 Freddy Peralta · 8.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-22 #170 Tobias Myers · 10.0% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-21 #76 Spencer Strider · 8.4% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-20 #174 Chris Sale · 9.7% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-19 #132 Martín Pérez · 10.3% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-18 #133 JR Ritchie · 6.4% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-17 #177 Drew Rasmussen · 8.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-16 #128 Nick Martinez · 9.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-15 #170 Ian Seymour · 7.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-05-13 #112 Simeon Woods Richardson · 10.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-12 #160 Bailey Ober · 8.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-09 #130 Zack Littell · 9.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-08 #114 Foster Griffin · 8.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-07 #109 Cade Povich · 8.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-06 #168 Brandon Young · 10.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-05 #141 Chris Bassitt · 7.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-04 #108 Aaron Nola · 12.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-03 #141 Jesús Luzardo · 9.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-02 #176 Andrew Painter · 9.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-01 #170 Zack Wheeler · 9.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-29 #56 Tyler Glasnow · 16.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-28 #60 Shohei Ohtani · 12.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-27 #23 Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 21.9% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-26 #227 Landen Roupp · 13.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-25 #206 Robbie Ray · 13.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-24 #195 Adrian Houser · 14.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-04-21 #98 Dustin May · 13.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-20 #77 Michael McGreevy · 12.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-19 #119 Jacob Misiorowski · 15.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-18 #139 Brandon Woodruff · 14.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-15 #117 Bryce Elder · 1.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-14 #59 Reynaldo López · 11.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-13 #46 Grant Holmes · 6.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-04-12 #91 Tarik Skubal · 5.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-11 #175 Casey Mize · 6.6% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-10 #175 Keider Montero · 7.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-09 #49 Rhett Lowder · 8.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-08 #166 Brady Singer · 6.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-04-07 #181 Andrew Abbott · 6.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-06 #119 Brandon Williamson · 8.2% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-05 #138 Max Fried · 10.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-04 #55 Ryan Weathers · 14.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-01 #136 Shane Smith · 11.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-31 #128 Erick Fedde · 11.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-30 #109 Davis Martin · 12.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-29 #117 Jose Quintana · 11.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-28 #87 Michael Lorenzen · 12.8% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-03-27 #50 Kyle Freeland · 12.4% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
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