2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Michael Busch
Michael Busch
CHC LHB
Michael Busch

Michael Busch

LHB
CHC · 81 appearances tracked
10
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
12.3%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
12.1%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
87.3
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.150
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#2
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 6 games · 10 HRs in 81 games
Due (1×)
0.0×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
0
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
6
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
81
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
19
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
0
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
0%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#91.8
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
All Appearances
81 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-06-24 #153 Nolan McLean L/R * 9.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-24 #129 Sean Manaea L/R * 10.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-23 #75 Kodai Senga L/R * 12.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-22 #70 Kodai Senga L/R * 13.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-21 #122 Dylan Cease L/R * 12.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-20 #105 Patrick Corbin L/L * 8.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-19 #94 Kevin Gausman L/R * 13.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-17 #70 COL Bullpen Proxy L/ 14.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-16 #76 Ryan Feltner L/R * 13.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-15 #45 Michael Lorenzen L/R * 17.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-14 #158 Logan Webb L/R * 12.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-13 #165 Trevor McDonald L/R * 15.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-12 #199 Landen Roupp L/R * 8.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-11 #35 Ryan Feltner · 11.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-10 #66 Michael Lorenzen · 12.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-09 #66 Tomoyuki Sugano · 11.0% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · 💥
2026-06-07 #113 Trevor McDonald · 16.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-06 #154 Landen Roupp · 10.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-05 #61 Robbie Ray · 8.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-04 #70 J.T. Ginn · 11.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-03 #95 Jeffrey Springs · 9.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-02 #99 Gage Jump · 7.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-31 #69 Matthew Liberatore · 19.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-30 #32 Kyle Leahy · 21.6% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-29 #64 Andre Pallante · 17.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-28 #44 Paul Skenes · 13.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-27 #74 Bubba Chandler · 15.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-26 #82 Braxton Ashcraft · 14.4% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-25 #105 Carmen Mlodzinski · 9.6% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · 💥
2026-05-24 #111 Peter Lambert · 6.6% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · 💥
2026-05-23 #106 Kai-Wei Teng · 10.1% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-22 #78 Spencer Arrighetti · 5.2% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-20 #80 Kyle Harrison · 7.0% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-19 #67 Jacob Misiorowski · 10.6% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-18 #51 Brandon Sproat · 10.3% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-17 #94 Erick Fedde · 5.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-05-16 #136 Davis Martin · 6.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-15 #137 Sean Burke · 6.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-14 #77 Chris Sale · 8.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-13 #103 JR Ritchie · 8.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-12 #145 Grant Holmes · 8.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-10 #184 Jacob deGrom · 7.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-09 #133 Jack Leiter · 8.0% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-08 #133 Kumar Rocker · 7.4% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-07 #57 Rhett Lowder · 7.4% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-06 #83 Brady Singer · 15.0% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-05 #89 Andrew Abbott · 11.5% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · 💥
2026-05-04 #66 Chase Petty · 8.2% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-03 #35 Merrill Kelly · 11.8% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-02 #56 Ryne Nelson · 9.2% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-01 #103 Zac Gallen · 7.0% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-04-29 #196 Matt Waldron · 7.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-28 #174 Walker Buehler · 7.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-27 #104 Randy Vásquez · 6.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-26 #98 Justin Wrobleski · 7.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-25 #123 Roki Sasaki · 13.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-24 #138 Emmet Sheehan · 13.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-23 #89 Cristopher Sánchez · 9.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-04-22 #198 Kyle Backhus · 7.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-04-21 #212 Jesús Luzardo · 6.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-20 #150 Aaron Nola · 7.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-19 #208 Tobias Myers · 6.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-18 #208 Freddy Peralta · 7.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-17 #214 Kodai Senga · 6.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-15 #8 Jesús Luzardo · 28.9% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-14 #21 Aaron Nola · 26.2% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-13 #69 Cristopher Sánchez · 3.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-11 #81 Braxton Ashcraft · 11.8% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-10 #63 Carmen Mlodzinski · 16.2% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-08 #45 Joe Boyle · 16.4% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-07 #37 Drew Rasmussen · 18.2% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-06 #18 Shane McClanahan · 22.3% 🔵 C+ ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-05 #47 Parker Messick · 15.0% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-05 #17 Slade Cecconi · 18.2% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-04 #20 Slade Cecconi · 18.2% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-01 #22 Yusei Kikuchi · 16.0% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-03-31 #17 José Soriano · 18.2% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-03-30 #3 Ryan Johnson · 21.6% 🔵 C+ ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-03-29 #13 Jake Irvin · 19.4% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-03-28 #25 Miles Mikolas · 16.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-26 #2 Cade Cavalli · 20.3% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
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