2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Shane Drohan
Shane Drohan LHP MIL
50 matchups scored · 6 game days
7 HRs Allowed
14.0% HR Rate (Pool)
8.7% Overall HR/FB
2.81 FIP
3.53 xFIP
-0.72 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
1.17
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
8.7%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
15th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
71.1%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
2.81
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
12th pctile
3.53
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.72
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
14th pctile
14.0%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
50
Pool Matchups
7
HRs Allowed (Pool)
1
Top-15 Matchups
1
HRs to Top-15
14.0%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 16 2 4 25.0% 2.0 99.7mph 102.7mph 28.2° 387ft Up +11.0pp
Last 15 24 3 5 20.8% 1.67 99.9mph 102.0mph 27.4° 385ft Up +6.8pp
Last 30 41 5 7 17.1% 1.4 98.9mph 101.7mph 27.4° 391ft Up +3.1pp
Batted-Ball Damage
45 tracked BBE from 50 pool matchups
98.5
112.8
32
0
101.7
27.4°
391
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-24 Noelvi Marte 112.8mph · · · ·
2026-06-24 Elly De La Cruz 111.6mph · · · ·
2026-06-24 Dane Myers 104.3mph · · · ·
2026-06-24 Spencer Steer 103.5mph 103.5mph 27° 400ft Yes
2026-06-18 Travis Bazzana 106.2mph 106.2mph 25° 398ft Yes
2026-06-18 Kyle Manzardo 100.8mph 100.8mph 27° 370ft Yes
2026-06-18 David Fry 100.2mph 100.2mph 34° 380ft Yes
2026-06-13 Alec Bohm 106.4mph · · · ·
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
6 days · 7 total HRs
HRs Allowed
7 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-24 Spencer Steer #46 58 Great American Ball Park 103.5mph 27.0° 400ft
2026-06-18 Kyle Manzardo #74 43 American Family Field 100.8mph 27.0° 370ft
2026-06-18 Travis Bazzana #82 40 American Family Field 106.2mph 25.0° 398ft
2026-06-18 David Fry #88 39 American Family Field 100.2mph 34.0° 380ft
2026-06-13 Edmundo Sosa #154 37 American Family Field 99.5mph 24.0° 375ft
2026-06-07 Hunter Goodman #3 78 Coors Field 99.9mph 26.0° 424ft
2026-06-01 Matt Chapman #140 23 American Family Field 101.8mph 29.0° 391ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Fastball 212 28.6% -0.8 81.3 33.6° 1
Sinker 156 21.0% +0.5 86.4 3.9° 2
Slider 146 19.7% -1.2 78.3 5.7° 0
Curveball 100 13.5% -1.8 76.3 1.2° 0
Cutter 98 13.2% +0.6 81.9 14.0° 1
Changeup 30 4.0% -0.1 74.6 2.4° 0
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
71.1%
71.1%
All Scored Matchups
50 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-24 Blake Dunn #219 30 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-24 Dane Myers #175 38 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-24 Matt McLain #127 44 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-24 Tyler Stephenson #122 45 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-24 Eugenio Suárez #117 45 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-24 Noelvi Marte #76 51 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-24 Sal Stewart #62 54 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-24 Spencer Steer #46 58 🟠 C 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-24 Elly De La Cruz #44 59 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-18 Austin Hedges #112 34 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-18 Brayan Rocchio #106 35 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-18 David Fry #88 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-18 Travis Bazzana #82 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-18 Kyle Manzardo #74 43 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-18 Rhys Hoskins #61 46 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-18 Gabriel Arias #52 50 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-13 Trea Turner #201 26 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-13 Edmundo Sosa #154 37 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-13 Bryson Stott #135 43 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-13 Alec Bohm #113 46 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-13 Derek Hill #100 48 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-13 Brandon Marsh #98 49 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-13 Bryce Harper #27 63 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-13 Kyle Schwarber #18 69 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-07 Chad Stevens #218 23 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-07 Willi Castro #163 36 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-07 TJ Rumfield #146 38 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-07 Troy Johnston #136 40 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-07 Ezequiel Tovar #107 46 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-07 Jake McCarthy #104 46 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-07 Kyle Karros #72 51 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-07 Hunter Goodman #3 78 🟡 B 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-01 Luis Arraez #143 22 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-01 Matt Chapman #140 23 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-01 Jonah Cox #133 27 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-01 Jung Hoo Lee #112 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-01 Bryce Eldridge #61 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-01 Rafael Devers #52 49 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-01 Willy Adames #38 54 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-01 Eric Haase #27 58 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-01 Casey Schmitt #19 62 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-08 Abraham Toro #193 24 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-04-08 Ceddanne Rafaela #184 30 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-08 Jarren Duran #171 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-08 Romy Gonzalez #153 34 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-08 Alex Bregman #146 32 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-08 Roman Anthony #145 34 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-08 Carlos Narvaez #144 32 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-08 Trevor Story #143 32 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-08 Wilyer Abreu #36 40 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
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