2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abreu
BOS LHB
Wilyer Abreu

Wilyer Abreu

LHB
BOS · 74 appearances tracked
10
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
13.5%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
13.1%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
90.1
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.179
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#16
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 7 games · 10 HRs in 74 games
Due (1×)
0.1×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
1
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
7
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
74
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
14
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
3
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
30%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#108.6
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
HR Days (While Top 50)
3 homers captured
DateRankPitcherStadium B/P WT BP EV Distance
2026-03-29 #16 Rhett Lowder Great American Ball Park · · · 98.0 mph 385.0 ft
2026-04-24 #45 Brandon Young Camden Yards · · · 105.4 mph 403.0 ft
2026-06-23 #41 Sean Sullivan Coors Field L/L ⚠️ 103.0 mph 443 ft
All Appearances
74 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-06-24 #34 Kyle Freeland L/L * 14.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-23 #41 Sean Sullivan L/L * 10.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-22 #45 Ryan Feltner L/R * 13.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-20 #139 Emerson Hancock L/R * 8.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-19 #156 Bryce Miller L/R * 7.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-18 #87 Trey Yesavage L/R * 7.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-17 #87 Braydon Fisher L/R * 9.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-16 #130 Dylan Cease L/R * 11.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-14 #79 Nathan Eovaldi L/R * 11.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-13 #104 Jacob deGrom L/R * 10.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-12 #92 Jack Leiter L/R * 8.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-10 #97 Drew Rasmussen · 11.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-09 #103 Nick Martinez · 9.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-08 #55 Ian Seymour · 9.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-07 #130 Cam Schlittler · 8.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-06 #124 Will Warren · 9.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-05 #88 Ryan Weathers · 9.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-04 #77 Trevor Rogers · 7.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-03 #162 Chris Bassitt · 8.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-06-02 #145 Shane Baz · 7.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-31 #123 Tanner Bibee · 10.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-30 #219 Parker Messick · 6.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-29 #114 Slade Cecconi · 8.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-28 #62 Chris Sale · 7.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-27 #177 Bryce Elder · 7.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-26 #117 Spencer Strider · 10.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-24 #148 Bailey Ober · 8.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-23 #173 Taj Bradley · 7.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-22 #104 Connor Prielipp · 8.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-20 #110 Michael Wacha · 8.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-19 #89 Bailey Falter · 10.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-18 #117 Seth Lugo · 7.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-17 #55 Grant Holmes · 16.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-16 #84 Bryce Elder · 12.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-15 #81 Spencer Strider · 13.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-14 #74 Jesús Luzardo · 13.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-13 #176 Andrew Painter · 12.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-12 #197 Zack Wheeler · 14.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-10 #204 Nick Martinez · 11.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-09 #204 Nick Martinez · 9.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-08 #191 Jesse Scholtens · 9.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-07 #123 Griffin Jax · 12.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-06 #165 Jack Flaherty · 13.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-05 #255 Framber Valdez · 4.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-05-04 #166 Tarik Skubal · 5.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-03 #200 Cody Bolton · 9.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-02 #215 Spencer Arrighetti · 7.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-01 #189 Mike Burrows · 13.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-29 #65 Eric Lauer · 8.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-27 #27 Dylan Cease · 12.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-26 #47 Kyle Bradish · 15.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-25 #38 Trevor Rogers · 17.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-24 #45 Brandon Young · 15.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-04-23 #92 Cam Schlittler · 8.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-22 #156 Max Fried · 7.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-21 #105 Luis Gil · 12.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-20 #101 Jack Flaherty · 9.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-19 #178 Framber Valdez · 8.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-18 #172 Tarik Skubal · 9.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-17 #126 Casey Mize · 12.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-12 #124 Andre Pallante · 1.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-11 #55 Kyle Leahy · 14.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-10 #24 Dustin May · 23.6% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-08 #36 Shane Drohan · 17.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-07 #20 Jacob Misiorowski · 21.0% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-06 #23 Brandon Woodruff · 20.8% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-05 #62 Walker Buehler · 14.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-04 #133 Randy Vásquez · 10.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-01 #60 Mike Burrows · 13.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-03-31 #89 Hunter Brown · 13.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-03-30 #47 Lance McCullers Jr. · 15.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-03-29 #16 Rhett Lowder · 18.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-03-28 #54 Brady Singer · 14.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-03-26 #37 Andrew Abbott · 14.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
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