2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Ceddanne Rafaela

Ceddanne Rafaela

RHB
BOS · 73 appearances tracked
7
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
9.6%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
13.8%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
87.4
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.146
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#45
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 11 games · 7 HRs in 73 games
Due (1×)
1.0×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
11
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
11
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
73
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
1
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
0
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
0%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#150.2
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
All Appearances
73 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-06-24 #65 Kyle Freeland R/L * 13.8% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ⚠️ ·
2026-06-23 #76 Sean Sullivan R/L * 11.4% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ⚠️ ·
2026-06-22 #64 Ryan Feltner R/R * 13.9% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ⚠️ ·
2026-06-21 #144 Logan Gilbert R/R * 9.9% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-20 #165 Emerson Hancock R/R * 9.9% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-19 #175 Bryce Miller R/R * 11.5% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-18 #100 Trey Yesavage R/R * 10.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-17 #148 Braydon Fisher R/R * 13.6% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ⚠️ ·
2026-06-16 #183 Dylan Cease R/R * 10.8% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ⚠️ ·
2026-06-14 #115 Nathan Eovaldi R/R * 14.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-13 #143 Jacob deGrom R/R * 11.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-12 #140 Jack Leiter R/R * 9.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-10 #141 Drew Rasmussen · 10.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-06-09 #118 Nick Martinez · 11.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-08 #66 Ian Seymour · 10.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-07 #147 Cam Schlittler · 10.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-06 #142 Will Warren · 10.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-05 #114 Ryan Weathers · 11.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-04 #83 Trevor Rogers · 9.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-03 #118 Chris Bassitt · 7.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-02 #100 Shane Baz · 11.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-30 #212 Parker Messick · 9.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-29 #104 Slade Cecconi · 14.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-28 #58 Chris Sale · 9.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-27 #158 Bryce Elder · 12.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-26 #131 Spencer Strider · 7.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-24 #156 Bailey Ober · 8.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-23 #180 Taj Bradley · 9.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-22 #105 Connor Prielipp · 14.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-20 #177 Michael Wacha · 14.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-19 #118 Bailey Falter · 10.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-18 #159 Seth Lugo · 11.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-17 #88 Grant Holmes · 21.7% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-16 #146 Bryce Elder · 10.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-15 #132 Spencer Strider · 17.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-14 #125 Jesús Luzardo · 16.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-13 #235 Andrew Painter · 12.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-05-12 #233 Zack Wheeler · 8.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-10 #246 Nick Martinez · 10.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-09 #241 Nick Martinez · 9.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-08 #215 Jesse Scholtens · 6.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-07 #151 Griffin Jax · 6.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-06 #210 Jack Flaherty · 7.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-05 #256 Framber Valdez · 4.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-05-04 #188 Tarik Skubal · 4.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-03 #217 Cody Bolton · 7.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-02 #239 Spencer Arrighetti · 7.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-01 #221 Mike Burrows · 6.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-29 #99 Eric Lauer · 8.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-27 #45 Dylan Cease · 8.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-26 #120 Kyle Bradish · 11.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-25 #132 Trevor Rogers · 10.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-24 #132 Brandon Young · 9.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-23 #144 Cam Schlittler · 5.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-22 #228 Max Fried · 4.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-21 #181 Luis Gil · 8.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-19 #248 Framber Valdez · 5.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-18 #254 Tarik Skubal · 5.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-17 #227 Casey Mize · 6.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-15 #74 Simeon Woods Richardson · 6.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-12 #155 Andre Pallante · 0.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-11 #205 Kyle Leahy · 5.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-10 #153 Dustin May · 8.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-08 #184 Shane Drohan · 6.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-07 #165 Jacob Misiorowski · 7.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-06 #70 Brandon Woodruff · 12.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-05 #119 Walker Buehler · 11.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-04 #172 Randy Vásquez · 8.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-01 #149 Mike Burrows · 10.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-31 #153 Hunter Brown · 10.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-03-30 #105 Lance McCullers Jr. · 12.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-28 #119 Brady Singer · 11.4% ⚪ D · — · · ·
2026-03-26 #84 Andrew Abbott · 11.0% ⚪ D · — · · ·
Six home runs to freedom

Ceddanne Rafaela's full profile is waiting

Upgrade to see today’s matchup, HR profile, rank trend, HR history, and every signal behind this batter profile.

73 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 516

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.