2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Mike Burrows
Mike Burrows RHP HOU
127 matchups scored · 15 game days
21 HRs Allowed
16.5% HR Rate (Pool)
20.9% Overall HR/FB
5.12 FIP
4.31 xFIP
+0.81 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
1.4
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
20.9%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
90th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
68.2%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
5.12
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
82th pctile
4.31
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.81
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
84th pctile
16.5%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
127
Pool Matchups
21
HRs Allowed (Pool)
18
Top-15 Matchups
5
HRs to Top-15
16.5%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 7 1 1 14.3% 1.0 98.1mph 96.3mph 40.0° 342ft Down -2.2pp
Last 15 12 2 2 16.7% 1.0 99.0mph 100.8mph 35.5° 387ft Flat +0.2pp
Last 30 38 5 8 21.1% 1.6 97.7mph 104.0mph 28.2° 390ft Up +4.6pp
Batted-Ball Damage
110 tracked BBE from 127 pool matchups
97.1
113.9
75
0
102.9
29.4°
386
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-24 Alejandro Kirk 105.1mph · · · ·
2026-06-24 Davis Schneider 101.9mph · · · ·
2026-06-24 Daulton Varsho 100.4mph · · · ·
2026-06-24 Nathan Lukes 98.8mph 96.3mph 40° 342ft Yes
2026-06-13 Carter Jensen 106.2mph · · · ·
2026-06-13 Michael Massey 105.5mph · · · ·
2026-06-13 Lane Thomas 105.4mph 105.4mph 31° 432ft Yes
2026-06-07 Nick Kurtz 113.9mph 113.9mph 20° 389ft Yes
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
15 days · 21 total HRs
HRs Allowed
21 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-24 Nathan Lukes #180 37 Rogers Centre 96.3mph 40.0° 342ft
2026-06-13 Lane Thomas #162 36 Kauffman Stadium 105.4mph 31.0° 432ft
2026-06-07 Nick Kurtz #23 68 Minute Maid Park 113.9mph 20.0° 389ft
2026-06-07 Brent Rooker #28 64 Minute Maid Park 103.2mph 33.0° 397ft
2026-06-02 Brandon Lowe #11 73 Minute Maid Park 97.0mph 34.0° 356ft
2026-06-02 Oneil Cruz #13 71 Minute Maid Park 111.2mph 23.0° 419ft
2026-06-02 Endy Rodríguez #189 33 Minute Maid Park 101.2mph 24.0° 383ft
2026-05-27 Joc Pederson #187 35 Globe Life Field 103.6mph 21.0° 402.0ft
2026-05-20 Ryan Kreidler #76 52 Target Field 104.2mph 29.0° 416.0ft
2026-05-20 Victor Caratini #212 28 Target Field 107.2mph 30.0° 406.0ft
2026-05-14 Luke Raley #1 84 Minute Maid Park 102.0mph 30.0° 368.0ft
2026-05-14 Mitch Garver #102 34 Minute Maid Park 99.1mph 33.0° 369.0ft
2026-05-01 Jarren Duran #234 14 Fenway Park 104.0mph 25.0° 407.0ft
2026-04-25 Trent Grisham #49 64 Minute Maid Park 99.4mph 28.0° 363.0ft
2026-04-25 José Caballero #116 50 Minute Maid Park 100.4mph 23.0° 357.0ft
2026-04-25 Austin Wells #120 49 Minute Maid Park 92.6mph 33.0° 343.0ft
2026-04-07 Mickey Moniak #3 61 Coors Field 97.0mph 39.0° 426.0ft
2026-04-01 Wilyer Abreu #60 48 Minute Maid Park 103.5mph 42.0° 372.0ft
2026-04-01 Roman Anthony #69 45 Minute Maid Park 106.9mph 32.0° 391.0ft
2026-03-27 Mike Trout #9 50 Daikin Park 109.7mph 23.0° 403.0ft
2026-03-27 Zach Neto #20 49 Daikin Park 102.5mph 24.0° 358.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Fastball 392 28.5% +1.8 85.2 29.5° 11
Changeup 370 26.9% +0.4 81.6 8.1° 1
Slider 230 16.7% +1.6 83.4 21.8° 3
Curveball 193 14.0% +0.9 81.1 4.7° 1
Sinker 191 13.9% -0.1 81.1 13.6° 2
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
68.2%
68.2%
All Scored Matchups
127 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-24 Nathan Lukes #180 37 ⚪ D ❄ COLD 💥
2026-06-24 Andrés Giménez #103 47 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-24 Alejandro Kirk #90 49 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-24 Davis Schneider #38 60 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-24 Daulton Varsho #36 60 🔵 C+ 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-24 George Springer #31 61 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-24 Kazuma Okamoto #1 77 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-13 Lane Thomas #162 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-13 Vinnie Pasquantino #138 42 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-13 Michael Massey #77 52 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-13 Carter Jensen #67 54 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-13 Jac Caglianone #40 60 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-07 Jeff McNeil #206 26 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-07 Lawrence Butler #179 31 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-07 Zack Gelof #116 43 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-07 Carlos Cortes #96 47 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-07 Brent Rooker #28 64 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-07 Tyler Soderstrom #27 64 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-07 Nick Kurtz #23 68 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-07 Shea Langeliers #4 75 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-02 Jared Triolo #231 22 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-02 Endy Rodríguez #189 33 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-02 Nick Gonzales #172 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-02 Jake Mangum #167 37 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-02 Ryan O'Hearn #63 54 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-02 Bryan Reynolds #59 56 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-02 Spencer Horwitz #25 65 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-02 Oneil Cruz #13 71 🟡 B ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-02 Brandon Lowe #11 73 🟡 B 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-27 Alejandro Osuna #261 15 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-27 Nicky Lopez #237 26 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-27 Josh Jung #189 35 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-27 Joc Pederson #187 35 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-27 Danny Jansen #160 38 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-27 Evan Carter #144 41 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-27 Ezequiel Duran #99 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-27 Brandon Nimmo #83 51 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-27 Jake Burger #46 60 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-20 James Outman #229 26 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-20 Luke Keaschall #228 26 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-20 Victor Caratini #212 28 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-20 Trevor Larnach #182 35 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-20 Josh Bell #98 47 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-20 Tristan Gray #87 49 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-20 Ryan Kreidler #76 52 🟠 C 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-20 Kody Clemens #42 62 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-20 Byron Buxton #1 91 🔥 A+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-14 Mitch Garver #102 34 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-14 Cole Young #94 36 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-14 J.P. Crawford #81 38 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-14 Josh Naylor #80 38 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-14 Randy Arozarena #66 44 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-14 Brendan Donovan #65 44 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-14 Julio Rodríguez #39 52 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-14 Dominic Canzone #27 57 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-14 Luke Raley #1 84 🟢 A 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-08 Eugenio Suárez #41 44 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-05-08 Matt McLain #40 44 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-08 Tyler Stephenson #35 45 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-08 Ke'Bryan Hayes #25 47 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-08 TJ Friedl #21 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-08 Spencer Steer #12 54 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-08 Sal Stewart #6 57 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-08 Elly De La Cruz #4 59 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-08 Nathaniel Lowe #2 63 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-01 Marcelo Mayer #243 12 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-01 Trevor Story #242 12 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-01 Roman Anthony #237 13 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-01 Jarren Duran #234 14 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-01 Carlos Narváez #222 16 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-01 Ceddanne Rafaela #221 16 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-01 Caleb Durbin #209 19 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-01 Wilyer Abreu #189 21 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-01 Willson Contreras #146 26 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-25 Austin Wells #120 49 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-04-25 José Caballero #116 50 🟠 C 📈 WARM 💥
2026-04-25 Jazz Chisholm Jr. #103 52 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-25 Cody Bellinger #77 58 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-25 Ryan McMahon #58 62 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-25 Trent Grisham #49 64 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-04-25 Giancarlo Stanton #10 81 🟢 A 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-25 Ben Rice #2 92 🔥 A+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-25 Aaron Judge #1 93 🔥 A+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-19 Victor Scott II #177 35 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-19 Pedro Pagés #138 43 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-19 Nathan Church #120 46 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-19 Nolan Gorman #104 49 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-19 Masyn Winn #96 51 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-19 Iván Herrera #80 55 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-19 JJ Wetherholt #74 56 🟠 C · — ·
2026-04-19 Alec Burleson #29 68 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-19 Jordan Walker #3 87 🟢 A 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-13 Ben Williamson #74 7 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-13 Cole Young #66 26 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-13 J.P. Crawford #52 12 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-13 Randy Arozarena #31 36 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-13 Dominic Canzone #30 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-13 Jorge Polanco #24 35 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-13 Julio Rodriguez #23 33 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-13 Cal Raleigh #9 49 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-07 Tyler Freeman #218 28 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-07 Ryan Ritter #197 29 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-07 Brenton Doyle #124 44 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-07 Jordan Beck #104 45 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-07 Kyle Farmer #99 40 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-07 Ezequiel Tovar #84 44 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-07 Michael Toglia #49 47 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-07 Hunter Goodman #26 58 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-07 Mickey Moniak #3 61 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM 💥
2026-04-01 Abraham Toro #160 31 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-01 Jarren Duran #154 42 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-01 Ceddanne Rafaela #149 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-01 Alex Bregman #110 40 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-01 Romy Gonzalez #92 43 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-01 Carlos Narvaez #82 41 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-01 Roman Anthony #69 45 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-04-01 Wilyer Abreu #60 48 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-04-01 Trevor Story #59 41 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-27 Nolan Schanuel #81 31 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-27 Luis Rengifo #79 29 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-03-27 Jorge Soler #31 44 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-03-27 Yoan Moncada #27 49 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-27 Logan O'Hoppe #26 42 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-03-27 Zach Neto #20 49 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-03-27 Taylor Ward #18 52 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-27 Mike Trout #9 50 🟠 C 📉 COOL 💥
2026-03-27 Jo Adell #8 55 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
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