Nathan Church
LHB3
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
6.5%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
25.5%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
85.9
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.156
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#18
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Cadence ?Tracks how often this batter typically hits HRs and whether they're overdue. Based on the median gap (in games) between each HR this season. Display only — does not affect model score.
Typically goes yard every 3 games
· 3 HRs in 46 games
0×
Due (1×)
2×
11.7×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
35
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
3
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
46
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
6
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
0
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
0%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#129.9
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend ?Daily model rank over time. The Y-axis is inverted — lower on the chart = better rank. Green dots mark days this batter hit a home run.
All Appearances ?Complete log of every time this batter appeared on the scored slate. Includes model rank, tier, form trend, and whether they went yard. Rows highlighted in green = HR days.
| Date | Rank | Pitcher | B/P | HR/FB | Tier | Form | WT | BP | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | #129 | Merrill Kelly | L/R * | 9.1% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-06-21 | #186 | Stephen Kolek | L/R * | 8.3% | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-06-19 | #169 | Seth Lugo | L/R * | 7.2% | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-06-17 | #219 | Bradgley Rodriguez | L/R * | 5.9% | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-06-16 | #196 | Michael King | L/R * | 8.5% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-06-15 | #140 | Wandy Peralta | L/L * | 6.2% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-06-14 | #174 | Taj Bradley | L/R * | 10.5% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-06-13 | #149 | Connor Prielipp | L/L * | 6.0% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-06-12 | #160 | Joe Ryan | L/R * | 9.5% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-06-11 | #98 | Christian Scott | L/R * | 9.3% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-06-10 | #120 | Austin Warren | · | 11.3% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-09 | #143 | Freddy Peralta | · | 12.1% | ⚪ D | · — | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-24 | #96 | Brady Singer | · | 14.8% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-22 | #87 | Chris Paddack | · | 13.4% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-20 | #185 | Carmen Mlodzinski | · | 9.8% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-19 | #172 | Mitch Keller | · | 9.7% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-17 | #158 | Stephen Kolek | · | 10.3% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-16 | #123 | Noah Cameron | · | 13.7% | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-15 | #152 | Michael Wacha | · | 10.6% | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-14 | #38 | Jacob Lopez | · | 12.1% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-13 | #33 | J.T. Ginn | · | 21.4% | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-12 | #47 | Jeffrey Springs | · | 15.7% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-10 | #161 | Walker Buehler | · | 13.3% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-09 | #158 | Randy Vásquez | · | 17.4% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-08 | #94 | Griffin Canning | · | 23.1% | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-07 | #100 | Michael King | · | 18.1% | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-06 | #115 | Brandon Sproat | · | 22.9% | 🔵 C+ | 🔥 HOT | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-05 | #18 | Brandon Sproat | · | 28.5% | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-04 | #95 | Chad Patrick | · | 23.2% | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-03 | #51 | Justin Wrobleski | · | 17.1% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-02 | #42 | Roki Sasaki | · | 30.2% | 🟢 A | 📈 WARM | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-01 | #73 | Emmet Sheehan | · | 31.3% | 🟢 A | 📈 WARM | · | · | · |
| 2026-04-30 | #41 | Paul Skenes | · | 20.6% | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · | · | · |
| 2026-04-29 | #198 | Bubba Chandler | · | 28.8% | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · | · | · |
| 2026-04-27 | #85 | Mason Montgomery | · | 23.7% | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · | · | · |
| 2026-04-26 | #160 | Emerson Hancock | · | 30.9% | 🟢 A | 📈 WARM | · | · | |
| 2026-04-25 | #255 | Bryan Woo | · | 5.2% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · | · | |
| 2026-04-24 | #224 | George Kirby | · | 8.5% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · | · | · |
| 2026-04-22 | #192 | Janson Junk | · | 9.2% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · | · | · |
| 2026-04-21 | #162 | Chris Paddack | · | 10.6% | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · | · | |
| 2026-04-20 | #144 | Max Meyer | · | 9.9% | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · | · | · |
| 2026-04-19 | #120 | Mike Burrows | · | 11.4% | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · | · | · |
| 2026-04-18 | #141 | Lance McCullers Jr. | · | 9.1% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · | · | · |
| 2026-04-17 | #132 | Peter Lambert | · | 10.8% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · | · | · |
| 2026-04-15 | #66 | Slade Cecconi | · | 7.6% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · | · | · |
| 2026-03-28 | #173 | Joe Boyle | · | 9.5% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · | · | · |