2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Taylor Ward
Taylor Ward
BAL RHB
Taylor Ward

Taylor Ward

RHB
BAL · 81 appearances tracked
5
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
6.2%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
6.7%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
89.1
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.146
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#6
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 16 games · 5 HRs in 81 games
Due (1×)
0.1×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
2
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
16
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
81
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
22
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
0
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
0%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#120.5
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
All Appearances
81 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-06-24 #188 José Soriano R/R * 6.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-23 #140 Ryan Johnson R/R * 8.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-22 #183 Sam Aldegheri R/L * 5.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-21 #150 Emmet Sheehan R/R * 8.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-20 #170 Yoshinobu Yamamoto R/R * 8.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-19 #133 Roki Sasaki R/R * 9.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-18 #104 Bryan Woo R/R * 5.8% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-17 #174 George Kirby R/R * 6.2% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-16 #177 Logan Gilbert R/R * 6.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-14 #140 Walker Buehler R/R * 9.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-13 #127 Randy Vásquez R/R * 9.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-12 #135 Griffin Canning R/R * 5.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-11 #91 Bryan Woo · 7.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-10 #152 George Kirby · 7.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-09 #124 Logan Gilbert · 7.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-08 #72 Emerson Hancock · 7.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-07 #182 Kevin Gausman · 7.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-06-06 #188 Braydon Fisher · 8.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-05 #216 Trey Yesavage · 5.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-04 #126 Brayan Bello · 6.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-03 #230 Payton Tolle · 5.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-02 #183 Connelly Early · 6.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-31 #218 Spencer Miles · 5.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-30 #218 Trey Yesavage · 5.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-28 #47 Patrick Corbin · 8.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-27 #119 Steven Matz · 8.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-26 #120 Griffin Jax · 8.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-25 #155 Shane McClanahan · 7.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-24 #207 Framber Valdez · 7.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-24 #163 Troy Melton · 7.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-22 #178 Jack Flaherty · 7.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-20 #202 Steven Matz · 5.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-19 #196 Griffin Jax · 4.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-05-18 #231 Shane McClanahan · 5.1% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-17 #249 Richard Lovelady · 6.1% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-16 #238 Cade Cavalli · 3.2% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-15 #221 Zack Littell · 5.1% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-13 #160 Max Fried · 7.6% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-12 #174 Will Warren · 6.7% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-11 #48 Ryan Weathers · 12.4% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-10 #61 Luis Severino · 9.2% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-09 #66 Aaron Civale · 7.1% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-08 #49 Jacob Lopez · 11.3% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-07 #149 Max Meyer · 5.0% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-06 #201 Eury Pérez · 6.5% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-05 #251 Sandy Alcantara · 4.8% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-04 #75 Cam Schlittler · 7.4% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-03 #14 Max Fried · 8.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-02 #14 Ryan Weathers · 12.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-01 #6 Will Warren · 5.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-30 #91 Peter Lambert · 7.4% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-04-30 #66 Lance McCullers Jr. · 7.6% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-04-29 #12 Peter Lambert · 7.8% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-04-28 #31 Kai-Wei Teng · 6.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-26 #61 Connelly Early · 11.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-25 #43 Garrett Crochet · 12.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-24 #46 Brayan Bello · 13.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-22 #201 Michael Wacha · 6.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-21 #189 Kris Bubic · 6.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-20 #141 Seth Lugo · 5.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-19 #164 Joey Cantillo · 6.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-04-18 #184 Gavin Williams · 6.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-17 #159 Tanner Bibee · 7.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-16 #98 Parker Messick · 6.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-15 #98 Eduardo Rodriguez · 3.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-13 #11 Will Warren · 19.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-12 #113 Adrian Houser · 3.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-11 #22 Brandon Williamson · 23.1% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-10 #39 Landen Roupp · 19.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-08 #26 Grant Holmes · 20.4% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-07 #65 Reynaldo López · 14.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-06 #36 Chris Sale · 16.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-05 #37 Luis Castillo · 15.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-04 #16 Emerson Hancock · 18.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-01 #89 Matthew Boyd · 12.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-03-31 #39 Jameson Taillon · 16.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-03-30 #37 Edward Cabrera · 16.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-03-29 #12 Bailey Ober · 19.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-03-28 #168 Cristian Javier · 9.7% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-03-27 #18 Mike Burrows · 15.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-26 #31 Hunter Brown · 14.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
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