Aaron Nola
RHP
PHI
17
HRs Allowed
13.3%
HR Rate (Pool)
24.7%
Overall HR/FB
4.41
FIP
3.62
xFIP
+0.78
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
1.13
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
24.7%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
94th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
67.0%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
4.41
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
64th pctile
3.62
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.78
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
83th pctile
13.3%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
128
Pool Matchups
17
HRs Allowed (Pool)
13
Top-15 Matchups
4
HRs to Top-15
13.3%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 14.3% | 1.0 | 96.5mph | 103.9mph | 36.5° | 392ft | Flat +1.0pp |
| Last 15 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 17.4% | 1.33 | 96.9mph | 104.0mph | 32.2° | 404ft | Up +4.1pp |
| Last 30 | 48 | 6 | 7 | 14.6% | 1.17 | 96.5mph | 104.2mph | 29.1° | 393ft | Flat +1.3pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
97.4
Avg Max EV
113.5
Max EV Allowed
73
Hard-Hit Proxy · 67.0%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
104.9
Avg HR EV
28.5°
Avg HR Launch
400
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Curtis Mead | 102.8mph | 102.8mph | 31° | 394ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-18 | Jared Young | 106.5mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-18 | Juan Soto | 105.0mph | 105.0mph | 42° | 389ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-13 | Garrett Mitchell | 109.0mph | 105.8mph | 25° | 425ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-13 | Jackson Chourio | 108.0mph | 102.3mph | 31° | 410ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-13 | Jake Bauers | 106.3mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-13 | William Contreras | 103.8mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-07 | Tristan Peters | 104.2mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Curtis Mead | #24 | 64 | Nationals Park | 102.8mph | 31.0° | 394ft |
| 2026-06-18 | Juan Soto | #12 | 71 | Citizens Bank Park | 105.0mph | 42.0° | 389ft |
| 2026-06-13 | Jackson Chourio | #30 | 62 | American Family Field | 102.3mph | 31.0° | 410ft |
| 2026-06-13 | Garrett Mitchell | #110 | 46 | American Family Field | 105.8mph | 25.0° | 425ft |
| 2026-06-02 | Gavin Sheets | #68 | 53 | Citizens Bank Park | 102.1mph | 28.0° | 362ft |
| 2026-05-26 | Manny Machado | #105 | 45 | Petco Park | 108.0mph | 19.0° | 362.0ft |
| 2026-05-26 | Ramón Laureano | #112 | 44 | Petco Park | 103.2mph | 28.0° | 409.0ft |
| 2026-05-20 | Sal Stewart | #12 | 78 | Citizens Bank Park | 109.7mph | 27.0° | 441.0ft |
| 2026-05-15 | Brandon Lowe | #51 | 62 | PNC Park | 107.1mph | 27.0° | 422.0ft |
| 2026-05-15 | Marcell Ozuna | #172 | 37 | PNC Park | 109.5mph | 24.0° | 438.0ft |
| 2026-05-09 | Willi Castro | #71 | 35 | Citizens Bank Park | 101.4mph | 34.0° | 376.0ft |
| 2026-04-26 | Matt Olson | #9 | 75 | Truist Park | 105.4mph | 37.0° | 399.0ft |
| 2026-04-26 | Eli White | #128 | 44 | Truist Park | 100.7mph | 25.0° | 361.0ft |
| 2026-04-20 | Dansby Swanson | #42 | 54 | Wrigley Field | 110.3mph | 22.0° | 424.0ft |
| 2026-04-14 | Carson Kelly | #43 | 54 | Citizens Bank Park | 103.3mph | 30.0° | 422.0ft |
| 2026-03-28 | Corey Seager | #4 | 52 | Citizens Bank Park | 103.2mph | 33.0° | 392.0ft |
| 2026-03-28 | Jake Burger | #26 | 47 | Citizens Bank Park | 104.1mph | 22.0° | 374.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knuckle Curve | 470 | 33.2% | -0.8 | 75.4 | -5.3° | 4 |
| Fastball | 342 | 24.2% | +4.4 | 85.6 | 35.2° | 6 |
| Sinker | 291 | 20.6% | +1.6 | 86.8 | 21.4° | 4 |
| Changeup | 177 | 12.5% | -1.5 | 79.7 | 9.3° | 1 |
| Cutter | 126 | 8.9% | +3.6 | 84.7 | 16.7° | 1 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
67.0%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Nasim Nuñez | #251 | 13 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-24 | Daylen Lile | #157 | 40 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-24 | Jacob Young | #156 | 40 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-24 | Keibert Ruiz | #92 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-24 | Cj Abrams | #25 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-24 | Curtis Mead | #24 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-24 | James Wood | #3 | 74 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-18 | Brett Baty | #95 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-18 | Carson Benge | #68 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-18 | Bo Bichette | #55 | 49 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-18 | Marcus Semien | #40 | 53 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-18 | Jared Young | #31 | 57 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-18 | MJ Melendez | #29 | 60 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-18 | Juan Soto | #12 | 71 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-13 | Joey Ortiz | #218 | 21 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-13 | Sal Frelick | #205 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-13 | Christian Yelich | #168 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-13 | William Contreras | #140 | 41 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-13 | David Hamilton | #136 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-13 | Garrett Mitchell | #110 | 46 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-13 | Brice Turang | #64 | 54 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-13 | Jackson Chourio | #30 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-13 | Jake Bauers | #5 | 78 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-07 | Sam Antonacci | #184 | 30 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-07 | Tristan Peters | #174 | 32 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-07 | Chase Meidroth | #121 | 43 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-07 | Andrew Benintendi | #42 | 59 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-07 | Drew Romo | #25 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-07 | Colson Montgomery | #16 | 70 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-07 | Miguel Vargas | #13 | 71 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Freddy Fermin | #237 | 19 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Sung-Mun Song | #225 | 26 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | #211 | 27 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Jase Bowen | #166 | 37 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Xander Bogaerts | #142 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Jackson Merrill | #137 | 41 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Miguel Andujar | #120 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Gavin Sheets | #68 | 53 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-02 | Manny Machado | #40 | 60 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Fernando Tatís | #233 | 22 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Jake Cronenworth | #226 | 25 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Xander Bogaerts | #177 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Jackson Merrill | #159 | 38 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Nick Castellanos | #130 | 42 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Miguel Andújar | #119 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Ramón Laureano | #112 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-26 | Manny Machado | #105 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-26 | Gavin Sheets | #30 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-20 | P.J. Higgins | #248 | 20 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Blake Dunn | #180 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Matt McLain | #94 | 48 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Will Benson | #35 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Spencer Steer | #25 | 69 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Nathaniel Lowe | #20 | 71 | 🟡 B | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Elly De La Cruz | #17 | 75 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Sal Stewart | #12 | 78 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-20 | JJ Bleday | #5 | 85 | 🟢 A | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Jared Triolo | #248 | 14 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Bryan Reynolds | #189 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Spencer Horwitz | #180 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Marcell Ozuna | #172 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-15 | Konnor Griffin | #161 | 39 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Endy Rodríguez | #147 | 41 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Ryan O'Hearn | #146 | 41 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Brandon Lowe | #51 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-15 | Oneil Cruz | #41 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Brenton Doyle | #140 | 26 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Ezequiel Tovar | #102 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Kyle Karros | #89 | 32 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Troy Johnston | #77 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Willi Castro | #71 | 35 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-09 | TJ Rumfield | #67 | 36 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Edouard Julien | #43 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Mickey Moniak | #19 | 50 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Hunter Goodman | #8 | 55 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-04 | Heriberto Hernández | #176 | 12 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-04 | Owen Caissie | #146 | 21 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-04 | Xavier Edwards | #145 | 21 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-04 | Otto Lopez | #133 | 24 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-04 | Graham Pauley | #125 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-04 | Agustín Ramírez | #116 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-04 | Jakob Marsee | #115 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-04 | Connor Norby | #108 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-04 | Liam Hicks | #64 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Mauricio Dubón | #175 | 37 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Ozzie Albies | #148 | 41 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Eli White | #128 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-26 | Austin Riley | #94 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | #72 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Jorge Mateo | #36 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Drake Baldwin | #35 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Matt Olson | #9 | 75 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-26 | Michael Harris II | #7 | 76 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Michael Busch | #150 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Alex Bregman | #131 | 30 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Nico Hoerner | #129 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | #98 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Matt Shaw | #68 | 46 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Dansby Swanson | #42 | 54 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-20 | Carson Kelly | #28 | 59 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Moisés Ballesteros | #13 | 67 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Ian Happ | #10 | 70 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Nico Hoerner | #98 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Ian Happ | #44 | 59 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Carson Kelly | #43 | 54 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-14 | Kyle Tucker | #42 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Matt Shaw | #34 | 52 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | #31 | 50 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Michael Busch | #21 | 54 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Dansby Swanson | #19 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Patrick Bailey | #212 | 23 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Jung Hoo Lee | #203 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Tyler Fitzgerald | #163 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Heliot Ramos | #133 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Casey Schmitt | #117 | 33 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Dominic Smith | #97 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Wilmer Flores | #70 | 27 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Willy Adames | #69 | 39 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Matt Chapman | #67 | 38 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Josh Smith | #105 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Marcus Semien | #72 | 36 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Jonah Heim | #65 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Josh Jung | #47 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Kyle Higashioka | #46 | 41 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Adolis Garcia | #45 | 44 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Jake Burger | #26 | 47 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-03-28 | Wyatt Langford | #14 | 48 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Corey Seager | #4 | 52 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | 💥 |