2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Garrett Mitchell

Garrett Mitchell

LHB
MIL · 57 appearances tracked
4
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
7.0%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
19.1%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
92.6
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.136
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#27
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 7 games · 4 HRs in 57 games
Due (1×)
0.9×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
6
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
7
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
57
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
3
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
0
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
0%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#103.2
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
All Appearances
57 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-06-24 #67 Rhett Lowder L/R * 16.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-22 #27 Brady Singer L/R * 21.6% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-21 #132 Bryce Elder L/R * 14.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-20 #102 Chris Sale L/L * 15.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-19 #77 Martín Pérez L/L * 15.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-17 #50 Gavin Williams L/R * 17.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-16 #86 Slade Cecconi L/R * 10.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-14 #128 Cristopher Sánchez L/L * 8.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-13 #110 Aaron Nola L/R * 10.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-12 #91 Andrew Painter L/R * 10.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-10 #122 Jack Perkins · 8.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-09 #65 J.T. Ginn · 12.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-08 #41 Jeffrey Springs · 9.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-07 #82 Kyle Freeland · 8.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-06 #104 Zach Agnos · 9.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-05 #81 Ryan Feltner · 14.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-04 #69 Adrian Houser · 15.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-03 #151 Logan Webb · 13.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-02 #123 Trevor McDonald · 17.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-01 #100 Landen Roupp · 11.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-31 #56 Tatsuya Imai · 22.9% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-30 #99 Peter Lambert · 14.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-29 #78 Kai-Wei Teng · 20.1% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-27 #90 Dustin May · 15.5% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-26 #98 Michael McGreevy · 9.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-05-25 #74 Matthew Liberatore · 12.7% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-24 #126 Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 11.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-22 #92 Justin Wrobleski · 8.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-20 #62 Edward Cabrera · 11.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-19 #62 Ben Brown · 9.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-18 #76 Shota Imanaga · 9.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-17 #98 Bailey Ober · 8.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-05-15 #114 Joe Ryan · 8.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-14 #101 Griffin Canning · 7.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-13 #185 Michael King · 7.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-12 #121 Matt Waldron · 10.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-09 #177 Cam Schlittler · 5.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-08 #148 Max Fried · 5.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-06 #212 Andre Pallante · 8.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-05 #165 Andre Pallante · 8.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-04 #105 Kyle Leahy · 11.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-03 #119 Zack Littell · 12.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-02 #110 Foster Griffin · 9.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-01 #78 Jake Irvin · 9.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-30 #124 Michael Soroka · 9.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-29 #166 Eduardo Rodriguez · 8.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-26 #70 Carmen Mlodzinski · 8.6% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-25 #150 Mitch Keller · 8.0% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-24 #119 Paul Skenes · 9.7% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-22 #59 Casey Mize · 9.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-21 #59 Keider Montero · 6.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-19 #70 Eury Pérez · 9.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-18 #88 Sandy Alcantara · 11.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-17 #51 Janson Junk · 14.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-15 #118 Dylan Cease · 1.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-12 #116 Zack Littell · 2.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-10 #239 Jake Irvin · 2.1% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
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