2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Corey Seager
Corey Seager
TEX LHB
Corey Seager

Corey Seager

LHB
TEX · 47 appearances tracked
8
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
17.0%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
23.0%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
90.9
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.210
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#3
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Profile Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
0.188
ISO ?Isolated Power (SLG − AVG). >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg.
71th pctile
91.2
Avg EV (mph) ?Average exit velocity (mph) on all batted balls. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg.
81th pctile
11.0%
Barrel% ?Percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA combo). >12% elite.
82th pctile
25.0% vs RHP
HR/FB ?Home runs per fly ball for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall.
92th pctile
394
Avg HR Dist (ft) ?Average distance of this batter's HRs in feet. >400 elite raw power.
52th pctile
17.0%
Season HR% ?HRs ÷ plate appearances this season. v3.5 model feature — strongest single backtest contributor.
100.0%
14d Pace ?HRs per game over last 14 days. v3.5 model feature — captures current hot/cold streak.
18.3%
Match% ?Combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate — the headline "how favorable is this matchup" number.
89th pctile
4
BBE ?Batted-ball events — sample size. Treat stats with caution below 30.
Loading matchup data...
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 6 games · 8 HRs in 47 games
Due (1×)
0.0×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
0
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
6
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
47
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
19
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
5
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
62%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#72.5
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
HR Days (While Top 50)
5 homers captured
DateRankPitcherStadium B/P WT BP EV Distance
2026-03-28 #4 Aaron Nola Citizens Bank Park · · · 103.2 mph 392.0 ft
2026-03-31 #3 Zach Eflin Camden Yards · · · 101.7 mph 395.0 ft
2026-04-10 #6 Tyler Glasnow Dodger Stadium · · · 108.8 mph 409.0 ft
2026-05-06 #23 Will Warren Yankee Stadium · · · 101.7 mph 350.0 ft
2026-06-11 #39 Michael Wacha Kauffman Stadium L/R ⚠️ 100.0 mph 391 ft
All Appearances
47 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-06-11 #39 Michael Wacha L/R * 16.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-10 #45 Seth Lugo · 17.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-09 #51 Stephen Kolek · 14.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-06 #36 Tanner Bibee · 16.6% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-06-05 #117 Parker Messick · 9.2% ⚪ D · — · · 💥
2026-05-24 #95 Reid Detmers · 8.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-22 #73 Grayson Rodriguez · 10.9% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-05-19 #24 Sammy Peralta · 9.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-18 #25 Jose Quintana · 11.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-15 #53 Spencer Arrighetti · 8.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-13 #44 Ryne Nelson · 14.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-12 #89 Zac Gallen · 12.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-11 #69 Michael Soroka · 15.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-10 #72 Jameson Taillon · 18.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-09 #96 Edward Cabrera · 17.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-08 #81 Ben Brown · 11.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-07 #11 Paul Blackburn · 19.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-06 #23 Will Warren · 20.9% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-05 #39 Elmer Rodríguez · 21.6% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-03 #134 Tyler Holton · 15.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-02 #198 Keider Montero · 13.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-01 #169 Jack Flaherty · 17.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-29 #121 Elmer Rodríguez · 20.0% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-28 #106 Cam Schlittler · 13.2% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-27 #71 Max Fried · 10.5% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-26 #144 J.T. Ginn · 23.2% 🔵 C+ ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-25 #157 Jeffrey Springs · 20.5% 🔵 C+ ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-24 #158 Luis Severino · 18.4% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-04-23 #68 Bubba Chandler · 18.6% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · 💥
2026-04-22 #114 Braxton Ashcraft · 14.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-19 #126 Bryan Woo · 13.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-18 #125 George Kirby · 20.2% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-17 #129 Logan Gilbert · 20.5% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-14 #105 Jeffrey Springs · 4.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-11 #8 Emmet Sheehan · 30.4% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-10 #6 Tyler Glasnow · 34.4% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-04-08 #16 Bryan Woo · 22.4% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-07 #17 George Kirby · 22.4% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-06 #13 Logan Gilbert · 24.1% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-05 #95 Chase Burns · 12.8% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-04-04 #42 Rhett Lowder · 15.0% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-04-01 #72 Trevor Rogers · 13.4% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · 💥
2026-03-31 #3 Zach Eflin · 25.2% 🔵 C+ 🔥 HOT · · 💥
2026-03-30 #4 Chris Bassitt · 20.8% 🔵 C+ 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-03-29 #72 Jesús Luzardo · 14.4% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-03-28 #4 Aaron Nola · 20.4% 🔵 C+ ❄ COLD · · 💥
2026-03-26 #49 Cristopher Sánchez · 13.6% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
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