Sean Sullivan
LHP
BOS
1
HRs Allowed
12.5%
HR Rate (Pool)
9.4%
Overall HR/FB
7.01
FIP
7.53
xFIP
-0.52
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
1.0
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
9.4%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
20th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
80.0%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
7.01
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
98th pctile
7.53
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.52
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
22th pctile
12.5%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
8
Pool Matchups
1
HRs Allowed (Pool)
1
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
12.5%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12.5% | 1.0 | 95.7mph | 103.0mph | 34.0° | 443ft | Flat +0.0pp |
| Last 15 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12.5% | 1.0 | 95.7mph | 103.0mph | 34.0° | 443ft | Flat +0.0pp |
| Last 30 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12.5% | 1.0 | 95.7mph | 103.0mph | 34.0° | 443ft | Flat +0.0pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
95.7
Avg Max EV
105.6
Max EV Allowed
4
Hard-Hit Proxy · 80.0%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
103.0
Avg HR EV
34.0°
Avg HR Launch
443
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Wilyer Abreu | 105.6mph | 103.0mph | 34° | 443ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-23 | Caleb Durbin | 104.5mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Willson Contreras | 100.2mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Ceddanne Rafaela | 100.1mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Wilyer Abreu | #41 | 60 | Coors Field | 103.0mph | 34.0° | 443ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 118 | 52.4% | +1.9 | 80.3 | 35.8° | 1 |
| Sweeper | 44 | 19.6% | +3.9 | 75.2 | 32.5° | 1 |
| Cutter | 31 | 13.8% | +0.1 | 77.5 | 4.3° | 0 |
| Changeup | 29 | 12.9% | +0.3 | 81.9 | 39.0° | 0 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
80.0%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Masataka Yoshida | #186 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Marcelo Mayer | #157 | 38 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Carlos Narváez | #154 | 39 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Caleb Durbin | #113 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Ceddanne Rafaela | #76 | 52 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Wilyer Abreu | #41 | 60 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-23 | Jarren Duran | #35 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Willson Contreras | #7 | 75 | 🟡 B | ❄ COLD | · |