2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs
SD
@ 2:35p
TEX
Globe Life Field · 16 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 2:35p · roof retractable
Park 0.94× Wind 9 mph slight_out 87°F retractable
+9
11 mph · out
79°F
2:35p
Boost for HR environment
+9
11 mph · out
79°F
3:35p
Boost for HR environment
+9
11 mph · out
79°F
4:35p
Boost for HR environment
+9
11 mph · out
79°F
5:35p
Boost for HR environment
+9
11 mph · out
79°F
6:35p
Boost for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.13

87°F, wind 9 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Nathan Eovaldi
Nathan Eovaldi RHP 💥 Meltdown
1.68 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +1.07 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Rodolfo Duran Rodolfo Duran 61 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 38 0.288 87.4 11.1% 33.3% vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 35.3% 19
2 Ty France Ty France 59 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 49 0.217 91.0 10.1% 35.0% vs RHP 393 15.0% 12.5% 31.7% 20
3 Gavin Sheets Gavin Sheets 58 🟠 C · · 60 0.232 89.1 8.6% 34.2% vs RHP 394 13.8% 20.0% 25.9% 29
4 Manny Machado Manny Machado 51 🟠 C · · 85 0.173 89.8 8.8% 25.7% vs RHP 397 17.4% 16.7% 13.7% 41
5 Jackson Merrill Jackson Merrill 46 ⚪ D · · 108 0.143 90.2 9.4% 13.0% vs RHP 407 11.8% 16.7% 9.0% 42
6 Xander Bogaerts Xander Bogaerts 37 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 159 0.115 87.8 7.5% 20.0% vs RHP 395 10.4% 0.0% 9.7% 26
7 Samad Taylor Samad Taylor 28 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 207 0.100 84.3 5.2% 25.0% 407 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 31
Wandy Peralta
Wandy Peralta LHP
0.73 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.00 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Jake Burger Jake Burger 48 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 91 0.191 90.0 5.9% 26.7% vs LHP 397 14.7% 18.2% 19.9% 31
2 Joc Pederson Joc Pederson 48 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 95 0.208 91.6 6.0% 19.2% 387 13.7% 11.1% 14.0% 26
3 Wyatt Langford Wyatt Langford 47 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 98 0.179 88.8 4.9% 25.0% vs LHP 392 10.9% 36.4% 18.3% 38
4 Kyle Higashioka Kyle Higashioka 43 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 129 0.167 87.8 6.1% 40.0% vs LHP 397 10.3% 14.3% 15.7% 15
5 Brandon Nimmo Brandon Nimmo 39 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 150 0.158 92.2 6.3% 7.1% vs LHP 411 8.7% 0.0% 8.9% 40
6 Ezequiel Duran Ezequiel Duran 37 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 160 0.156 89.6 4.5% 16.7% vs LHP 370 8.8% 9.1% 8.6% 27
7 Josh Jung Josh Jung 37 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 162 0.144 90.0 4.5% 16.7% vs LHP 387 11.6% 8.3% 7.9% 38
8 Nicky Lopez Nicky Lopez 18 ⚪ D · · 234 0.067 83.2 · 9.1% 397 6.7% 0.0% 7.7% 27
9 Alejandro Osuna Alejandro Osuna 12 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 237 0.027 88.0 · 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 12
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.21 · build 521

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.