Hunter Brown
RHP
HOU
4
HRs Allowed
11.4%
HR Rate (Pool)
5.9%
Overall HR/FB
1.89
FIP
2.75
xFIP
-0.86
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
1.0
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
5.9%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
6th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
71.4%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
1.89
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
2th pctile
2.75
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.86
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
9th pctile
11.4%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
35
Pool Matchups
4
HRs Allowed (Pool)
1
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
11.4%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 5.9% | 0.5 | 96.9mph | 101.9mph | 23.0° | 388ft | Down -5.5pp |
| Last 15 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 5.9% | 0.5 | 96.9mph | 101.9mph | 23.0° | 388ft | Down -5.5pp |
| Last 30 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 5.9% | 0.5 | 96.9mph | 101.9mph | 23.0° | 388ft | Down -5.5pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
97.6
Avg Max EV
112.0
Max EV Allowed
20
Hard-Hit Proxy · 71.4%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
103.2
Avg HR EV
27.5°
Avg HR Launch
378
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | George Springer | 105.4mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Andrés Giménez | 104.4mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Daulton Varsho | 104.1mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Kazuma Okamoto | 101.9mph | 101.9mph | 23° | 388ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-16 | Riley Greene | 112.0mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Alex Bregman | 104.9mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Wilyer Abreu | 101.5mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Ceddanne Rafaela | 98.6mph | 98.6mph | 26° | 337ft | Yes |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Kazuma Okamoto | #53 | 57 | Rogers Centre | 101.9mph | 23.0° | 388ft |
| 2026-03-31 | Ceddanne Rafaela | #153 | 35 | Minute Maid Park | 98.6mph | 26.0° | 337.0ft |
| 2026-03-26 | Mike Trout | #21 | 44 | Daikin Park | 108.5mph | 35.0° | 403.0ft |
| 2026-03-26 | Nolan Schanuel | #115 | 28 | Daikin Park | 103.6mph | 26.0° | 383.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 148 | 34.8% | -2.5 | 83.4 | 34.5° | 0 |
| Sinker | 122 | 28.7% | -0.6 | 79.5 | 9.4° | 1 |
| Knuckle Curve | 83 | 19.5% | -0.8 | 81.1 | -9.2° | 0 |
| Slider | 41 | 9.6% | +0.0 | 76.0 | -4.8° | 0 |
| Changeup | 31 | 7.3% | +0.5 | 75.1 | 17.6° | 0 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
71.4%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Nathan Lukes | #200 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Ernie Clement | #174 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Andrés Giménez | #173 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Alejandro Kirk | #146 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Daulton Varsho | #118 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Jesús Sánchez | #94 | 48 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-22 | George Springer | #91 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Kazuma Okamoto | #53 | 57 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-16 | Zach McKinstry | #208 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Colt Keith | #164 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Kevin McGonigle | #160 | 38 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Hao-Yu Lee | #150 | 40 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-16 | James Outman | #144 | 41 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Riley Greene | #68 | 55 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Kerry Carpenter | #49 | 59 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Spencer Torkelson | #33 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Dillon Dingler | #11 | 73 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Abraham Toro | #165 | 28 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Jarren Duran | #155 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Ceddanne Rafaela | #153 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-03-31 | Alex Bregman | #127 | 36 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Romy Gonzalez | #110 | 39 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Carlos Narvaez | #102 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Roman Anthony | #91 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Wilyer Abreu | #89 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Trevor Story | #88 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-26 | Nolan Schanuel | #115 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-03-26 | Luis Rengifo | #100 | 26 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-26 | Jorge Soler | #52 | 39 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-26 | Yoan Moncada | #47 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-26 | Logan O'Hoppe | #46 | 38 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-26 | Zach Neto | #35 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-26 | Taylor Ward | #31 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-26 | Mike Trout | #21 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-03-26 | Jo Adell | #18 | 50 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |