HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
2.0
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
12.7%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
51th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
81.2%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
·
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
·
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
·
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
23.5%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
17
Pool Matchups
4
HRs Allowed (Pool)
0
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
23.5%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 23.5% | 2.0 | 102.7mph | 107.0mph | 29.0° | 391ft | Flat +0.0pp |
| Last 15 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 23.5% | 2.0 | 102.7mph | 107.0mph | 29.0° | 391ft | Flat +0.0pp |
| Last 30 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 23.5% | 2.0 | 102.7mph | 107.0mph | 29.0° | 391ft | Flat +0.0pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
102.7
Avg Max EV
111.1
Max EV Allowed
13
Hard-Hit Proxy · 81.2%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
107.0
Avg HR EV
29.0°
Avg HR Launch
391
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Cam Smith | 111.1mph | 111.1mph | 34° | 402ft | Yes |
| 2026-04-04 | Christian Walker | 108.2mph | 108.2mph | 20° | 383ft | Yes |
| 2026-04-04 | Yainer Diaz | 106.3mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Mauricio Dubon | 104.8mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Victor Caratini | 103.4mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Jake Meyers | 100.7mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 110.7mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Jesús Sánchez | 109.2mph | 109.2mph | 24° | 417ft | Yes |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Christian Walker | #33 | 51 | Sutter Health Park | 108.2mph | 20.0° | 383.0ft |
| 2026-04-04 | Cam Smith | #85 | 39 | Sutter Health Park | 111.1mph | 34.0° | 402.0ft |
| 2026-03-29 | George Springer | #21 | 58 | Rogers Centre | 99.6mph | 38.0° | 362.0ft |
| 2026-03-29 | Jesús Sánchez | #90 | 45 | Rogers Centre | 109.2mph | 24.0° | 417.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 107 | 39.2% | +6.1 | 87.9 | 29.9° | 3 |
| Sweeper | 47 | 17.2% | +2.3 | 82.5 | 14.4° | 0 |
| Sinker | 44 | 16.1% | -0.6 | 83.1 | 11.9° | 0 |
| Slider | 42 | 15.4% | +5.3 | 84.2 | 26.6° | 2 |
| Changeup | 33 | 12.1% | +4.6 | 84.2 | 42.2° | 0 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
81.2%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Jake Meyers | #174 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Mauricio Dubon | #147 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Cam Smith | #85 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-04 | Victor Caratini | #69 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Yainer Diaz | #51 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Jeremy Pena | #48 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Jose Altuve | #39 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Isaac Paredes | #36 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Christian Walker | #33 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-03-29 | Ernie Clement | #160 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Tyler Heineman | #147 | 33 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Andrés Giménez | #128 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Jesús Sánchez | #90 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-03-29 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | #64 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Addison Barger | #47 | 51 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-03-29 | George Springer | #21 | 58 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-03-29 | Daulton Varsho | #19 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | ❄ COLD | · |