← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-06-16
0
Top-5 Hits
2
Top-15 Hits
29
HRs in Slate
97%
Coverage
226
Scored
What Happened
A high-volume day with 29 HRs across scored matchups.
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
7 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
10 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
7 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
7 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
4 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Edward Cabrera: {'batter': 'Hunter Goodman', 'rank': 1, 'score': 86.0}, {'batter': 'Brett Sullivan', 'rank': 9, 'score': 74.0}
Slade Cecconi: {'batter': 'Jake Bauers', 'rank': 2, 'score': 77.0}, {'batter': 'Jackson Chourio', 'rank': 15, 'score': 71.0}
Mitch Keller: {'batter': 'Nick Kurtz', 'rank': 6, 'score': 75.0}, {'batter': 'Shea Langeliers', 'rank': 12, 'score': 72.0}
Drew Rasmussen: {'batter': 'Shohei Ohtani', 'rank': 8, 'score': 74.0}, {'batter': 'Max Muncy', 'rank': 14, 'score': 71.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Hunter Goodman | Edward Cabrera | 43.4% | 86 | 5.7 | 1.01 | 🌤️ | 14.9% | |
| 2 | — | Jake Bauers | Slade Cecconi | 30.9% | 77 | 4.3 | 1.02 | 🌤️ | 10.2% | |
| 3 | — | Byron Buxton | Kumar Rocker | 29.1% | 77 | 4.1 | 0.93 | 🌤️ | 12.0% | |
| 4 | — | JJ Bleday | Kodai Senga | 39.8% | 76 | 6.2 | 1.20 | ❄ | 10.7% | |
| 5 | — | Matt Olson | Adrian Houser | 32.5% | 76 | 5.2 | 0.95 | · | 11.8% | |
| 6 | — | Nick Kurtz | Mitch Keller | 39.2% | 75 | 3.8 | 1.14 | · | 10.9% | |
| 7 | — | Juan Soto | Brady Singer | 26.5% | 74 | 6.4 | 1.20 | ❄ | 13.2% | |
| 8 | ✅ | Shohei Ohtani | Drew Rasmussen | 41.6% | 74 | 3.1 | 1.30 | 🌤️ | 10.7% | 106.9 mph · 427ft · 27.0° |
| 9 | — | Brett Sullivan | Edward Cabrera | 32.7% | 74 | 5.7 | 1.01 | 🔥 | 7.2% | |
| 10 | ✅ | Mike Trout | Merrill Kelly | 21.1% | 73 | 6.4 | 0.94 | · | 17.9% | 104.0 mph · 436ft · 29.0° |
| 11 | — | Dillon Dingler | Hunter Brown | 22.9% | 73 | 1.9 | 1.00 | 🌤️ | 13.0% | |
| 12 | — | Shea Langeliers | Mitch Keller | 26.6% | 72 | 3.8 | 1.14 | · | 9.8% | |
| 13 | — | Colson Montgomery | Gerrit Cole | 31.8% | 72 | 4.5 | 1.07 | 🌤️ | 10.2% | |
| 14 | — | Max Muncy | Drew Rasmussen | 33.2% | 71 | 3.1 | 1.30 | · | 10.6% | |
| 15 | — | Jackson Chourio | Slade Cecconi | 31.9% | 71 | 4.3 | 1.02 | · | 10.9% |
All 27 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shohei Ohtani | 41.6% | 106.9 | 427ft | 27.0° |
| 10 | Mike Trout | 21.1% | 104.0 | 436ft | 29.0° |
| 17 | Kyle Schwarber | 25.3% | 96.6 | 352ft | 23.0° |
| 20 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 21.1% | 97.7 | 386ft | 33.0° |
| 29 | Brandon Lowe | 24.9% | 104.6 | 371ft | 24.0° |
| 30 | Zach Neto | 21.8% | 108.0 | 421ft | 27.0° |
| 31 | Sal Stewart | 16.8% | 106.9 | 410ft | 26.0° |
| 35 | Ben Rice | 24.5% | 96.9 | 371ft | 36.0° |
| 36 | Spencer Steer | 24.6% | 102.9 | 392ft | 35.0° |
| 39 | Esteury Ruiz | 30.4% | 98.0 | 358ft | 29.0° |
| 40 | Kody Clemens | 24.9% | 104.9 | 367ft | 23.0° |
| 58 | Zack Gelof | 22.3% | 98.4 | 360ft | 37.0° |
| 63 | Paul Goldschmidt | 22.8% | 103.9 | 390ft | 37.0° |
| 69 | Curtis Mead | 20.1% | 104.6 | 424ft | 25.0° |
| 82 | Bryan Reynolds | 8.8% | 97.3 | 350ft | 31.0° |
| 86 | Garrett Mitchell | 10.6% | 111.8 | 440ft | 22.0° |
| 89 | Brice Turang | 22.4% | 103.3 | 409ft | 26.0° |
| 98 | TJ Rumfield | 13.5% | 96.0 | 385ft | 36.0° |
| 106 | Brandon Marsh | 16.8% | 104.4 | 402ft | 24.0° |
| 114 | Alec Bohm | 7.7% | 105.7 | 447ft | 27.0° |
| 155 | Jarren Duran | 13.2% | 109.0 | 445ft | 21.0° |
| 159 | Lane Thomas | 8.1% | 101.9 | 407ft | 27.0° |
| 169 | José Caballero | 12.0% | 90.5 | 351ft | 34.0° |
| 170 | George Springer | 7.5% | 109.2 | 438ft | 24.0° |
| 190 | Trevor Larnach | 7.0% | 108.8 | 425ft | 31.0° |
| 191 | Davis Schneider | 6.0% | 105.7 | 419ft | 32.0° |
| 213 | Andrés Giménez | 7.7% | 104.9 | 413ft | 24.0° |