← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-06-18
1
Top-5 Hits
4
Top-15 Hits
16
HRs in Slate
73%
Coverage
136
Scored
What Happened
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
4 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
8 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
12 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
6 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
4 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
LAA Bullpen Proxy: {'batter': 'Nick Kurtz', 'rank': 1, 'score': 90.0}, {'batter': 'Shea Langeliers', 'rank': 6, 'score': 78.0}, {'batter': 'Tyler Soderstrom', 'rank': 10, 'score': 72.0}
Ryan Weathers: {'batter': 'Randal Grichuk', 'rank': 2, 'score': 83.0}, {'batter': 'Colson Montgomery', 'rank': 3, 'score': 82.0}, {'batter': 'Miguel Vargas', 'rank': 11, 'score': 72.0}
Bryan Hudson: {'batter': 'Spencer Jones', 'rank': 7, 'score': 75.0}, {'batter': 'Ben Rice', 'rank': 8, 'score': 73.0}
Parker Messick: {'batter': 'Jake Bauers', 'rank': 9, 'score': 73.0}, {'batter': 'Jackson Chourio', 'rank': 13, 'score': 71.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Nick Kurtz | LAA Bullpen Proxy | 36.1% | 90 | 4.4 | 1.19 | · | 18.2% | |
| 2 | — | Randal Grichuk | Ryan Weathers | 40.1% | 83 | 4.5 | 1.16 | 🌤️ | 12.8% | |
| 3 | ✅ | Colson Montgomery | Ryan Weathers | 39.0% | 82 | 4.5 | 1.16 | 🌤️ | 13.0% | 107.2 mph · 420ft · 27.0° |
| 4 | — | Byron Buxton | Jack Leiter | 29.3% | 81 | 4.4 | 0.91 | 🌤️ | 14.6% | |
| 5 | — | Kyle Schwarber | Sean Manaea | 38.3% | 78 | 4.0 | 1.11 | 🌧️ | 13.9% | |
| 6 | ✅ | Shea Langeliers | LAA Bullpen Proxy | 31.6% | 78 | 4.4 | 1.19 | 🌧️ | 14.9% | 103.8 mph · 430ft · 30.0° |
| 7 | — | Spencer Jones | Bryan Hudson | 32.5% | 75 | 3.9 | 1.16 | 🌤️ | 4.7% | |
| 8 | — | Ben Rice | Bryan Hudson | 39.4% | 73 | 3.9 | 1.16 | 🌧️ | 8.9% | |
| 9 | — | Jake Bauers | Parker Messick | 25.6% | 73 | 3.3 | 1.06 | 🌤️ | 9.9% | |
| 10 | ✅ | Tyler Soderstrom | LAA Bullpen Proxy | 29.5% | 72 | 4.4 | 1.19 | · | 10.9% | 102.4 mph · 402ft · 30.0° |
| 11 | — | Miguel Vargas | Ryan Weathers | 24.5% | 72 | 4.5 | 1.16 | · | 13.1% | |
| 12 | ✅ | Juan Soto | Aaron Nola | 23.7% | 71 | 4.7 | 1.11 | 🌧️ | 12.2% | 105.0 mph · 389ft · 42.0° |
| 13 | — | Jackson Chourio | Parker Messick | 41.8% | 71 | 3.3 | 1.06 | · | 10.6% | |
| 14 | — | Dominic Canzone | Shane Baz | 26.2% | 69 | 3.9 | 0.91 | · | 11.9% | |
| 15 | — | Jordan Walker | Noah Cameron | 25.3% | 68 | 3.5 | 0.92 | 🌤️ | 11.5% |
All 16 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Colson Montgomery | 39.0% | 107.2 | 420ft | 27.0° |
| 6 | Shea Langeliers | 31.6% | 103.8 | 430ft | 30.0° |
| 10 | Tyler Soderstrom | 29.5% | 102.4 | 402ft | 30.0° |
| 12 | Juan Soto | 23.7% | 105.0 | 389ft | 42.0° |
| 43 | Jac Caglianone | 18.5% | 110.0 | 402ft | 22.0° |
| 50 | Brooks Lee | 15.9% | 104.3 | 365ft | 21.0° |
| 53 | Ryan McMahon | 8.1% | 108.3 | 430ft | 28.0° |
| 74 | Kyle Manzardo | 8.0% | 100.8 | 370ft | 27.0° |
| 81 | Trevor Larnach | 7.5% | 103.0 | 419ft | 24.0° |
| 82 | Travis Bazzana | 9.1% | 106.2 | 398ft | 25.0° |
| 88 | David Fry | 8.5% | 100.2 | 380ft | 34.0° |
| 109 | Wyatt Langford | 6.5% | 106.4 | 366ft | 44.0° |
| 116 | Caleb Durbin | 8.3% | 98.6 | 386ft | 34.0° |
| 119 | Ezequiel Duran | 6.3% | 95.7 | 374ft | 32.0° |
| 134 | Nathan Lukes | 6.6% | 100.4 | 392ft | 22.0° |
| 135 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 5.2% | 98.4 | 360ft | 42.0° |