← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-06-15
1
Top-5 Hits
3
Top-15 Hits
15
HRs in Slate
68%
Coverage
149
Scored
What Happened
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
6 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
9 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
10 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
5 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
3 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Jared Jones: {'batter': 'Nick Kurtz', 'rank': 2, 'score': 81.0}, {'batter': 'Shea Langeliers', 'rank': 3, 'score': 77.0}, {'batter': 'Tyler Soderstrom', 'rank': 10, 'score': 72.0}
Nick Martinez: {'batter': 'Shohei Ohtani', 'rank': 4, 'score': 77.0}, {'batter': 'Max Muncy', 'rank': 8, 'score': 73.0}
Tobias Myers: {'batter': 'JJ Bleday', 'rank': 12, 'score': 71.0}, {'batter': 'Noelvi Marte', 'rank': 15, 'score': 70.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Hunter Goodman | Shota Imanaga | 34.8% | 85 | 4.7 | 1.03 | 🔥 | 13.2% | |
| 2 | ✅ | Nick Kurtz | Jared Jones | 48.2% | 81 | 4.1 | 1.19 | · | 13.6% | 106.0 mph · 380ft · 46.0° |
| 3 | — | Shea Langeliers | Jared Jones | 25.2% | 77 | 4.1 | 1.19 | · | 12.5% | |
| 4 | — | Shohei Ohtani | Nick Martinez | 31.9% | 77 | 4.2 | 1.29 | 🌤️ | 10.7% | |
| 5 | — | Kyle Schwarber | Ryan Gusto | 25.1% | 75 | 1.8 | 1.11 | 🌧️ | 14.6% | |
| 6 | — | James Wood | Mitch Spence | 36.9% | 74 | 8.7 | 1.02 | 🌧️ | 13.9% | |
| 7 | ✅ | Byron Buxton | MacKenzie Gore | 25.3% | 74 | 3.5 | 0.91 | 🌤️ | 12.4% | 103.4 mph · 398ft · 34.0° |
| 8 | — | Max Muncy | Nick Martinez | 25.7% | 73 | 4.2 | 1.29 | · | 10.6% | |
| 9 | — | Ian Happ | Michael Lorenzen | 38.3% | 72 | 5.2 | 1.03 | 🌧️ | 11.9% | |
| 10 | — | Tyler Soderstrom | Jared Jones | 35.9% | 72 | 4.1 | 1.19 | · | 10.7% | |
| 11 | — | Junior Caminero | Eric Lauer | 26.3% | 72 | 6.6 | 1.29 | · | 11.6% | |
| 12 | ✅ | JJ Bleday | Tobias Myers | 40.5% | 71 | 4.8 | 1.20 | ❄ | 8.9% | 98.1 mph · 365ft · 36.0° |
| 13 | — | Dillon Dingler | Kai-Wei Teng | 25.9% | 71 | 4.4 | 0.97 | 🌤️ | 8.1% | |
| 14 | — | Brandon Lowe | J.T. Ginn | 39.0% | 70 | 4.3 | 1.19 | 🌧️ | 8.9% | |
| 15 | — | Noelvi Marte | Tobias Myers | 24.4% | 70 | 4.8 | 1.20 | 🔥 | 7.1% |
All 15 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nick Kurtz | 48.2% | 106.0 | 380ft | 46.0° |
| 7 | Byron Buxton | 25.3% | 103.4 | 398ft | 34.0° |
| 12 | JJ Bleday | 40.5% | 98.1 | 365ft | 36.0° |
| 19 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 26.1% | 106.0 | 434ft | 28.0° |
| 20 | Mike Trout | 14.3% | 100.4 | 371ft | 29.0° |
| 35 | Isaac Paredes | 18.8% | 94.7 | 358ft | 36.0° |
| 51 | Spencer Torkelson | 18.5% | 103.0 | 372ft | 27.0° |
| 56 | Dylan Crews | 12.6% | 108.4 | 366ft | 22.0° |
| 62 | Joc Pederson | 12.1% | 104.3 | 394ft | 33.0° |
| 89 | Eugenio Suárez | 11.0% | 105.9 | 406ft | 36.0° |
| 98 | Josh Bell | 7.7% | 100.0 | 376ft | 32.0° |
| 100 | Kyle Tucker | 8.7% | 102.1 | 384ft | 24.0° |
| 115 | Colt Keith | 7.3% | 99.6 | 347ft | 29.0° |
| 119 | Kevin McGonigle | 7.7% | 102.5 | 383ft | 33.0° |
| 136 | Jeff Mcneil | 10.7% | 99.9 | 359ft | 23.0° |