ATL
@
5:40p
SD
Stadium Conditions
Petco Park
First pitch 5:40p
· roof open
Park 0.89×
Wind 7 mph in
75°F
open
-5
2 mph · cross
64°F
5:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-5
2 mph · cross
64°F
6:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-5
2 mph · cross
64°F
7:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-5
2 mph · cross
64°F
8:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-5
2 mph · cross
64°F
9:40p
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Suppress · Combined 0.80
75°F, wind 7 mph W (in) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
SD Bullpen Proxy
1.08 HR/9
· FIP-xFIP +0.00
·
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Drake Baldwin | 66 | 🔵 C+ | · | ❄ COLD | 19 | 0.223 | 92.2 | 17.8% | 31.1% | 407 | 21.1% | 0.0% | 24.8% | 12 |
| 2 |
|
Matt Olson | 65 | 🔵 C+ | +425 | ❄ COLD | 24 | 0.276 | 92.7 | 13.5% | 21.4% | 409 | 21.8% | 7.1% | 14.6% | 31 |
| 3 |
|
Austin Riley | 42 | ⚪ D | +500 | 🌤️ WARM | 142 | 0.159 | 91.2 | 10.4% | 12.0% | 409 | 7.8% | 0.0% | 8.4% | 25 |
| 4 |
|
Ozzie Albies | 35 | ⚪ D | +575 | 🌧️ COOL | 194 | 0.163 | 87.2 | 4.1% | 11.2% | 383 | 12.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 41 |
| 5 |
|
Dominic Smith | 35 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 196 | 0.145 | 87.7 | 7.2% | 10.5% | 390 | 8.2% | 0.0% | 7.5% | 26 |
| 6 |
|
Mike Yastrzemski | 33 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 203 | 0.147 | 90.6 | 3.6% | 12.0% | 374 | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 15 |
| 7 |
|
Mauricio Dubon | 29 | ⚪ D | +800 | 🌧️ COOL | 219 | 0.139 | 86.3 | 5.6% | 9.0% | 392 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 42 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Manny Machado | 49 | ⚪ D | +500 | 🌤️ WARM | 88 | 0.195 | 90.0 | 7.6% | 21.4% vs LHP | 399 | 18.1% | 25.0% | 18.5% | 38 |
| 2 |
|
Ty France | 47 | ⚪ D | +625 | 🌧️ COOL | 101 | 0.201 | 91.0 | 8.4% | 14.3% vs LHP | 393 | 13.0% | 11.1% | 18.4% | 20 |
| 3 |
|
Jackson Merrill | 39 | ⚪ D | +500 | · | 168 | 0.141 | 90.2 | 8.0% | 15.4% vs LHP | 407 | 11.3% | 16.7% | 7.8% | 41 |
| 4 |
|
Miguel Andujar | 34 | ⚪ D | +700 | 🌧️ COOL | 199 | 0.156 | 88.0 | 5.3% | 12.5% vs LHP | 394 | 12.5% | 0.0% | 10.3% | 3 |
| 5 |
|
Xander Bogaerts | 29 | ⚪ D | +625 | ❄ COLD | 223 | 0.111 | 87.9 | 6.3% | 7.1% vs LHP | 395 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 6.4% | 23 |
| 6 |
|
Freddy Fermin | 26 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌤️ WARM | 231 | 0.111 | 86.3 | 4.4% | 40.0% vs LHP | 382 | 5.6% | 0.0% | 11.7% | 4 |
| 7 |
|
Samad Taylor | 20 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 242 | 0.080 | 86.0 | 4.0% | 20.0% | 407 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.7% | 32 |