AZ
@
6:45p
STL
Stadium Conditions
Busch Stadium
First pitch 6:45p
· roof open
Park 0.83×
Wind 2 mph in
85°F
open
-10
5 mph · in
73°F
6:45p
Suppress for HR environment
-10
5 mph · in
73°F
7:45p
Suppress for HR environment
-10
5 mph · in
73°F
8:45p
Suppress for HR environment
-10
5 mph · in
73°F
9:45p
Suppress for HR environment
-10
5 mph · in
73°F
10:45p
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.91
85°F, wind 2 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
AZ Bullpen Proxy
1.30 HR/9
· FIP-xFIP +0.00
·
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Jordan Walker | 62 | 🔵 C+ | +700 | 🌧️ COOL | 28 | 0.241 | 93.9 | 13.6% | 25.7% | 408 | 18.5% | 15.4% | 14.2% | 42 |
| 2 |
|
Nelson Velazquez | 54 | 🟠 C | +950 | 🔥 HOT | 58 | 0.235 | 93.6 | 12.5% | 33.3% | 407 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.1% | 10 |
| 3 |
|
Lars Nootbaar | 44 | ⚪ D | +750 | · | 126 | 0.173 | 94.6 | 11.9% | 18.2% | 439 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.3% | 31 |
| 4 |
|
Bryan Torres | 37 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 180 | 0.191 | 85.1 | 5.6% | 20.0% | 373 | 8.3% | 0.0% | 13.2% | 4 |
| 5 |
|
Ivan Herrera | 36 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 185 | 0.169 | 89.9 | 7.0% | 16.7% | 406 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.1% | 36 |
| 6 |
|
Jj Wetherholt | 34 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌧️ COOL | 198 | 0.154 | 90.0 | 7.3% | 13.6% | 389 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.5% | 45 |
| 7 |
|
Pedro Pages | 29 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 221 | 0.136 | 87.0 | 6.0% | 10.5% | 403 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.6% | 8 |
| 8 |
|
José Fermín | 17 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 248 | 0.097 | 85.7 | 1.1% | 5.4% | 372 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.8% | 22 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Corbin Carroll | 61 | 🔵 C+ | +625 | 🌧️ COOL | 34 | 0.260 | 91.8 | 11.3% | 13.6% vs LHP | 406 | 17.2% | 15.4% | 15.6% | 40 |
| 2 |
|
Tommy Troy | 50 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 84 | 0.171 | 84.5 | 10.9% | 20.0% vs LHP | 397 | 11.8% | 25.0% | 15.5% | 25 |
| 3 |
|
Gabriel Moreno | 50 | 🟠 C | · | 🌤️ WARM | 87 | 0.206 | 90.3 | 9.9% | 20.0% vs LHP | 395 | 11.8% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 33 |
| 4 |
|
Ketel Marte | 48 | ⚪ D | +700 | · | 92 | 0.187 | 91.3 | 10.3% | 29.4% vs LHP | 413 | 11.7% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 47 |
| 5 |
|
Nolan Arenado | 38 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌧️ COOL | 173 | 0.155 | 85.5 | 7.9% | 20.0% vs LHP | 400 | 9.9% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 37 |
| 6 |
|
Ildemaro Vargas | 36 | ⚪ D | · | · | 187 | 0.158 | 86.9 | 6.5% | 29.4% vs LHP | 399 | 7.3% | 0.0% | 9.8% | 24 |
| 7 |
|
Geraldo Perdomo | 28 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 227 | 0.106 | 87.2 | 5.1% | 7.1% vs LHP | 379 | 4.8% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 35 |