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Study Day
📅 2026-06-13
1
Top-5 Hits
3
Top-15 Hits
31
HRs in Slate
76%
Coverage
231
Scored
What Happened
A high-volume day with 31 HRs across scored matchups.
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
7 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
9 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
10 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
9 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
2 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Kyle Freeland: {'batter': 'Nick Kurtz', 'rank': 2, 'score': 86.0}, {'batter': 'Shea Langeliers', 'rank': 3, 'score': 83.0}, {'batter': 'Tyler Soderstrom', 'rank': 10, 'score': 75.0}
Randy Vásquez: {'batter': 'Pete Alonso', 'rank': 8, 'score': 76.0}, {'batter': 'Colton Cowser', 'rank': 9, 'score': 76.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Hunter Goodman | ATH Bullpen Proxy | 37.0% | 91 | 4.8 | 1.19 | 🌤️ | 15.2% | |
| 2 | — | Nick Kurtz | Kyle Freeland | 29.5% | 86 | 5.6 | 1.19 | 🌤️ | 13.7% | |
| 3 | — | Shea Langeliers | Kyle Freeland | 46.5% | 83 | 5.6 | 1.19 | · | 12.3% | |
| 4 | ✅ | Byron Buxton | Matthew Liberatore | 25.7% | 81 | 4.5 | 0.98 | 🌤️ | 13.1% | 106.5 mph · 420ft · 31.0° |
| 5 | — | Jake Bauers | Aaron Nola | 34.3% | 78 | 4.4 | 0.98 | 🌤️ | 11.3% | |
| 6 | — | James Wood | Luis Castillo | 34.0% | 76 | 4.1 | 1.09 | 🌧️ | 16.5% | |
| 7 | — | Matt Olson | Sean Manaea | 34.3% | 76 | 4.0 | 1.01 | · | 11.3% | |
| 8 | ✅ | Pete Alonso | Randy Vásquez | 31.6% | 76 | 4.8 | 1.16 | · | 13.1% | 104.3 mph · 392ft · 26.0° |
| 9 | — | Colton Cowser | Randy Vásquez | 24.0% | 76 | 4.8 | 1.16 | 🌤️ | 13.6% | |
| 10 | — | Tyler Soderstrom | Kyle Freeland | 30.8% | 75 | 5.6 | 1.19 | · | 10.5% | |
| 11 | ✅ | Corbin Carroll | Rhett Lowder | 29.8% | 75 | 3.8 | 1.17 | 🌤️ | 9.7% | 111.8 mph · 433ft · 23.0° |
| 12 | — | Dillon Dingler | Joey Cantillo | 28.7% | 75 | 4.8 | 0.93 | 🌤️ | 11.0% | |
| 13 | — | Dominic Canzone | Cade Cavalli | 29.6% | 74 | 3.4 | 1.09 | 🌤️ | 11.8% | |
| 14 | — | JJ Bleday | Michael Soroka | 33.3% | 73 | 3.4 | 1.17 | 🌧️ | 10.1% | |
| 15 | — | Ryan Ward | Sean Burke | 32.2% | 72 | 3.8 | 0.91 | 🌤️ | 9.7% |
All 31 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Byron Buxton | 25.7% | 106.5 | 420ft | 31.0° |
| 8 | Pete Alonso | 31.6% | 104.3 | 392ft | 26.0° |
| 11 | Corbin Carroll | 29.8% | 111.8 | 433ft | 23.0° |
| 17 | Colt Emerson | 35.1% | 98.6 | 386ft | 36.0° |
| 24 | Gavin Sheets | 19.1% | 97.3 | 355ft | 35.0° |
| 30 | Jackson Chourio | 25.0% | 102.3 | 410ft | 31.0° |
| 31 | Zack Gelof | 22.8% | 96.5 | 400ft | 31.0° |
| 32 | Jordan Walker | 21.6% | 116.6 | 454ft | 24.0° |
| 34 | Manny Machado | 14.6% | 106.2 | 429ft | 22.0° |
| 39 | Shohei Ohtani | 21.7% | 109.6 | 409ft | 26.0° |
| 58 | Christian Walker | 16.9% | 108.9 | 394ft | 20.0° |
| 60 | Jackson Merrill | 8.7% | 99.0 | 372ft | 34.0° |
| 62 | Paul Goldschmidt | 21.5% | 103.2 | 400ft | 33.0° |
| 63 | Kazuma Okamoto | 20.8% | 102.4 | 352ft | 21.0° |
| 70 | Ian Happ | 33.3% | 103.6 | 404ft | 29.0° |
| 72 | Max Muncy | 14.8% | 101.4 | 409ft | 32.0° |
| 78 | Royce Lewis | 12.4% | 100.1 | 366ft | 25.0° |
| 81 | Jasson Domínguez | 21.6% | 97.1 | 357ft | 24.0° |
| 92 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 24.2% | 102.7 | 385ft | 31.0° |
| 93 | Jarren Duran | 18.8% | 102.5 | 400ft | 33.0° |
| 110 | Garrett Mitchell | 10.7% | 105.8 | 425ft | 25.0° |
| 114 | Noelvi Marte | 10.7% | 104.8 | 413ft | 30.0° |
| 124 | Eli White | 11.5% | 106.6 | 390ft | 23.0° |
| 152 | Iván Herrera | 11.4% | 103.6 | 403ft | 34.0° |
| 154 | Edmundo Sosa | 14.8% | 99.5 | 375ft | 24.0° |
| 157 | Jake Burger | 12.1% | 107.3 | 421ft | 24.0° |
| 162 | Lane Thomas | 6.6% | 105.4 | 432ft | 31.0° |
| 171 | Brice Matthews | 13.3% | 105.3 | 434ft | 32.0° |
| 202 | Tristan Peters | 7.2% | 108.5 | 388ft | 26.0° |
| 208 | Jake Meyers | 6.3% | 99.8 | 419ft | 29.0° |
| 210 | Luke Keaschall | 5.7% | 107.1 | 371ft | 24.0° |