2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
AZ
@ 6:45p
STL
Busch Stadium · 16 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 6:45p · roof open
Park 0.83× Wind 1 mph in 87°F open
-9
5 mph · in
72°F
6:45p
Suppress for HR environment
-9
5 mph · in
72°F
7:45p
Suppress for HR environment
-9
5 mph · in
72°F
8:45p
Suppress for HR environment
-9
5 mph · in
72°F
9:45p
Suppress for HR environment
-9
5 mph · in
72°F
10:45p
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Neutral · Combined 1.00

87°F, wind 1 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +2 — mild park boost, weather flat.

Zac Gallen
Zac Gallen RHP
1.73 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.79 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Jordan Walker Jordan Walker 63 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 12 0.238 93.9 11.6% 30.2% vs RHP 408 18.2% 7.7% 16.4% 39
2 Alec Burleson Alec Burleson 57 🟠 C · · 26 0.202 91.7 10.3% 23.1% vs RHP 405 17.6% 27.3% 15.0% 46
3 Lars Nootbaar Lars Nootbaar 45 ⚪ D · · 61 0.182 94.6 10.8% 10.0% vs RHP 439 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 32
4 Ivan Herrera Ivan Herrera 41 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 74 0.168 89.9 8.3% 19.4% vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 35
5 Nathan Church Nathan Church 39 ⚪ D · · 84 0.142 85.9 9.5% 22.7% vs RHP 387 6.5% 0.0% 8.0% 21
6 Jj Wetherholt Jj Wetherholt 38 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 86 0.151 90.0 8.5% 19.6% vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 45
7 Masyn Winn Masyn Winn 30 ⚪ D · · 117 0.092 87.7 5.8% 13.6% vs RHP 389 4.2% 9.1% 7.4% 40
8 José Fermín José Fermín 28 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 122 0.094 85.7 3.3% 20.0% vs RHP 372 5.3% 20.0% 8.1% 22
Michael McGreevy
Michael McGreevy RHP
1.34 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.54 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Corbin Carroll Corbin Carroll 59 🟠 C · ❄ COLD 23 0.256 91.8 10.9% 25.0% vs RHP 406 16.9% 15.4% 15.1% 40
2 Ketel Marte Ketel Marte 48 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 53 0.188 91.3 10.0% 14.3% vs RHP 413 13.1% 15.4% 10.1% 48
3 Gabriel Moreno Gabriel Moreno 47 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 56 0.200 90.3 9.6% 17.6% vs RHP 395 11.4% 8.3% 11.0% 33
4 Jorge Barrosa Jorge Barrosa 39 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 82 0.184 86.5 8.1% 13.3% vs RHP 376 2.9% 0.0% 16.4% 8
5 Nolan Arenado Nolan Arenado 36 ⚪ D · · 98 0.157 85.5 7.6% 15.4% vs RHP 400 9.7% 0.0% 8.4% 40
6 Ildemaro Vargas Ildemaro Vargas 34 ⚪ D · · 107 0.158 86.9 6.3% 11.1% vs RHP 399 7.1% 0.0% 8.1% 25
7 Adrian Del Castillo Adrian Del Castillo 32 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 111 0.117 89.3 7.8% 16.7% vs RHP 396 8.1% 0.0% 7.2% 12
8 Geraldo Perdomo Geraldo Perdomo 27 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 125 0.105 87.2 5.0% 7.9% vs RHP 379 4.7% 7.7% 6.4% 37
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 516

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.