2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
NYY
@ 7:10p
BOS
Fenway Park · 16 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open
Park 0.95× Wind 3 mph out 84°F open
+1
6 mph · slight_out
69°F
7:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
6 mph · slight_out
69°F
8:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
6 mph · slight_out
69°F
9:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
6 mph · slight_out
69°F
10:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
6 mph · slight_out
69°F
11:10p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Elevated · Combined 1.04

84°F, wind 3 mph W (out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Connelly Early
Connelly Early LHP
1.54 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.58 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ben Rice Ben Rice 78 🟡 B +1000 · 1 0.314 91.9 12.8% 45.5% vs LHP 390 25.4% 33.3% 35.8% 35
2 Paul Goldschmidt Paul Goldschmidt 69 🔵 C+ · · 6 0.239 86.9 11.1% 42.1% vs LHP 390 20.9% 45.5% 32.4% 37
3 Amed Rosario Amed Rosario 61 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 16 0.219 90.3 11.3% 15.0% vs LHP 399 12.5% 25.0% 19.3% 14
4 Cody Bellinger Cody Bellinger 52 🟠 C · · 42 0.185 89.1 9.2% 17.4% vs LHP 379 12.5% 16.7% 13.4% 37
5 Jasson Dominguez Jasson Dominguez 44 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 64 0.224 89.6 4.5% 16.7% vs LHP 353 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% 28
6 Austin Wells Austin Wells 36 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 97 0.094 89.3 8.4% 9.1% vs LHP 377 8.0% 0.0% 9.6% 7
7 Jose Caballero Jose Caballero 34 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 105 0.137 83.9 5.6% 30.0% vs LHP 371 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% 26
8 Anthony Volpe Anthony Volpe 33 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 109 0.103 88.4 6.7% 14.3% vs LHP 409 2.7% 0.0% 7.9% 26
Cam Schlittler
Cam Schlittler RHP
0.46 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.60 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Willson Contreras Willson Contreras 55 🟠 C +1000 🌧️ COOL 32 0.229 90.0 8.9% 33.3% vs RHP 402 18.9% 16.7% 27.1% 31
2 Wilyer Abreu Wilyer Abreu 47 ⚪ D +950 · 55 0.174 89.8 8.6% 13.0% vs RHP 402 13.5% 27.3% 14.0% 36
3 Jarren Duran Jarren Duran 44 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 66 0.162 89.8 8.4% 36.7% vs RHP 396 14.9% 18.2% 14.5% 28
4 Ceddanne Rafaela Ceddanne Rafaela 37 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 92 0.168 86.4 6.0% 15.4% vs RHP 370 9.6% 8.3% 9.7% 40
5 Caleb Durbin Caleb Durbin 31 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 115 0.138 85.2 4.4% 17.4% vs RHP 388 5.7% 18.2% 9.7% 34
6 Carlos Narvaez Carlos Narvaez 24 ⚪ D +1000 🌤️ WARM 130 0.082 91.0 6.2% 11.1% vs RHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 8
7 Marcelo Mayer Marcelo Mayer 24 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 132 0.089 86.0 5.9% 2.9% vs RHP 388 3.7% 0.0% 5.3% 22
8 Masataka Yoshida Masataka Yoshida 21 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 137 0.094 88.4 3.1% 3.3% vs RHP 393 3.8% 0.0% 5.3% 16
🏟️
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