Connelly Early
LHP
BOS
14
HRs Allowed
11.5%
HR Rate (Pool)
12.9%
Overall HR/FB
4.48
FIP
4.29
xFIP
+0.19
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
1.0
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
12.9%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
54th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
68.2%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
4.48
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
66th pctile
4.29
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.19
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
59th pctile
11.5%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
122
Pool Matchups
14
HRs Allowed (Pool)
6
Top-15 Matchups
1
HRs to Top-15
11.5%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 13.3% | 1.0 | 96.8mph | 103.5mph | 26.5° | 400ft | Flat +1.8pp |
| Last 15 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 12.5% | 1.0 | 93.7mph | 102.5mph | 29.0° | 396ft | Flat +1.0pp |
| Last 30 | 42 | 5 | 5 | 11.9% | 1.0 | 94.5mph | 103.2mph | 27.8° | 391ft | Flat +0.4pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
97.0
Avg Max EV
114.6
Max EV Allowed
73
Hard-Hit Proxy · 68.2%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
105.3
Avg HR EV
28.4°
Avg HR Launch
395
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Dominic Canzone | 110.4mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Wyatt Langford | 106.8mph | 106.8mph | 28° | 418ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-14 | Brandon Nimmo | 105.6mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Kyle Higashioka | 104.4mph | 100.2mph | 25° | 381ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-14 | Justin Foscue | 104.3mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Jake Burger | 104.3mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-08 | Yandy Díaz | 102.5mph | 100.4mph | 34° | 390ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-08 | Junior Caminero | 102.4mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Kyle Higashioka | #118 | 45 | Fenway Park | 100.2mph | 25.0° | 381ft |
| 2026-06-14 | Wyatt Langford | #170 | 37 | Fenway Park | 106.8mph | 28.0° | 418ft |
| 2026-06-08 | Yandy Díaz | #17 | 67 | Tropicana Field | 100.4mph | 34.0° | 390ft |
| 2026-06-02 | Pete Alonso | #44 | 59 | Fenway Park | 110.8mph | 23.0° | 400ft |
| 2026-06-02 | Coby Mayo | #53 | 57 | Fenway Park | 97.8mph | 29.0° | 364ft |
| 2026-05-20 | Salvador Perez | #144 | 40 | Kauffman Stadium | 109.8mph | 24.0° | 379.0ft |
| 2026-05-15 | Drake Baldwin | #18 | 77 | Truist Park | 103.0mph | 32.0° | 407.0ft |
| 2026-05-15 | Michael Harris II | #38 | 65 | Truist Park | 104.6mph | 22.0° | 419.0ft |
| 2026-05-02 | Christian Walker | #139 | 27 | Fenway Park | 108.3mph | 21.0° | 388.0ft |
| 2026-05-02 | Brice Matthews | #211 | 16 | Fenway Park | 104.9mph | 30.0° | 406.0ft |
| 2026-04-26 | Gunnar Henderson | #14 | 72 | Camden Yards | 105.3mph | 25.0° | 391.0ft |
| 2026-04-26 | Samuel Basallo | #24 | 68 | Camden Yards | 101.5mph | 37.0° | 392.0ft |
| 2026-04-21 | Giancarlo Stanton | #147 | 32 | Fenway Park | 111.5mph | 41.0° | 369.0ft |
| 2026-03-29 | Eugenio Suárez | #174 | 55 | Great American Ball Park | 109.6mph | 27.0° | 431.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 494 | 36.1% | +0.0 | 83.3 | 35.2° | 6 |
| Sinker | 267 | 19.5% | -0.6 | 80.3 | 11.2° | 1 |
| Changeup | 256 | 18.7% | +0.3 | 86.1 | 4.4° | 3 |
| Curveball | 159 | 11.6% | +2.2 | 82.5 | 7.8° | 2 |
| Slider | 98 | 7.2% | -0.1 | 84.5 | 19.5° | 2 |
| Sweeper | 95 | 6.9% | -1.8 | 80.2 | 14.7° | 0 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
68.2%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Josh Naylor | #175 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-20 | Cole Young | #141 | 41 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-20 | Cal Raleigh | #126 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-20 | J. P. Crawford | #107 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-20 | Julio Rodríguez | #85 | 51 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-20 | Luke Raley | #34 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-20 | Dominic Canzone | #14 | 72 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Alejandro Osuna | #232 | 13 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Ezequiel Duran | #177 | 35 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Wyatt Langford | #170 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-14 | Josh Jung | #142 | 41 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Brandon Nimmo | #125 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Kyle Higashioka | #118 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-14 | Jake Burger | #68 | 54 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Justin Foscue | #53 | 58 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-08 | Nick Fortes | #120 | 23 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-08 | Ben Williamson | #116 | 25 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-08 | Taylor Walls | #114 | 26 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-08 | Austin Slater | #109 | 29 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-06-08 | Ryan Vilade | #62 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-08 | Cedric Mullins | #50 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-08 | Yandy Díaz | #17 | 67 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-06-08 | Junior Caminero | #15 | 68 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-08 | Jonathan Aranda | #8 | 75 | 🟡 B | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Tyler O'Neill | #222 | 26 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Leody Taveras | #206 | 29 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Taylor Ward | #183 | 34 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Blaze Alexander | #148 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Adley Rutschman | #69 | 53 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Coby Mayo | #53 | 57 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | 💥 |
| 2026-06-02 | Pete Alonso | #44 | 59 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-02 | Gunnar Henderson | #27 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Samuel Basallo | #23 | 68 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Chadwick Tromp | #268 | 9 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Ha-Seong Kim | #252 | 20 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Mauricio Dubón | #169 | 37 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Ozzie Albies | #164 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | #135 | 43 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Jorge Mateo | #132 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Austin Riley | #70 | 55 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Michael Harris II | #37 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Matt Olson | #20 | 70 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Lane Thomas | #254 | 16 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Kyle Isbel | #220 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Maikel Garcia | #198 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Vinnie Pasquantino | #157 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Salvador Perez | #144 | 40 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-20 | Carter Jensen | #136 | 41 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Isaac Collins | #124 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Bobby Witt Jr. | #51 | 59 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Jac Caglianone | #44 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Ha-Seong Kim | #187 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-15 | José Azócar | #165 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Mauricio Dubón | #164 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Ozzie Albies | #126 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Sandy León | #74 | 56 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Austin Riley | #62 | 59 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Michael Harris II | #38 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-15 | Drake Baldwin | #18 | 77 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-15 | Matt Olson | #4 | 91 | 🔥 A+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Taylor Walls | #240 | 6 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Cedric Mullins | #239 | 6 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Nick Fortes | #223 | 10 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Chandler Simpson | #222 | 10 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Jake Fraley | #203 | 14 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Ben Williamson | #180 | 19 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Jonathan Aranda | #171 | 20 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Yandy Díaz | #170 | 20 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Junior Caminero | #138 | 24 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Joey Loperfido | #257 | 6 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Cam Smith | #247 | 9 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Jose Altuve | #234 | 11 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Carlos Correa | #214 | 15 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Brice Matthews | #211 | 16 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-02 | Isaac Paredes | #170 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Yainer Diaz | #158 | 24 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Christian Walker | #139 | 27 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-02 | Yordan Alvarez | #100 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Blaze Alexander | #185 | 35 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Tyler O'Neill | #123 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Dylan Beavers | #82 | 54 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Taylor Ward | #61 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Pete Alonso | #59 | 59 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Jeremiah Jackson | #48 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Samuel Basallo | #24 | 68 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-26 | Adley Rutschman | #15 | 72 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Gunnar Henderson | #14 | 72 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-21 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | #236 | 11 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | José Caballero | #217 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Austin Wells | #206 | 21 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Ryan McMahon | #186 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Cody Bellinger | #180 | 26 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Giancarlo Stanton | #147 | 32 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-21 | Trent Grisham | #136 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Ben Rice | #46 | 55 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Aaron Judge | #34 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Victor Scott II | #251 | 18 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Masyn Winn | #250 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | José Fermín | #248 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Jordan Walker | #245 | 23 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Alec Burleson | #244 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Pedro Pagés | #243 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Ramón Urías | #242 | 27 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Iván Herrera | #241 | 33 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Luis Arraez | #240 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Jose Iglesias | #238 | 14 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Xander Bogaerts | #233 | 25 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Jake Cronenworth | #229 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Elias Diaz | #227 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Jackson Merrill | #223 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Gavin Sheets | #222 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Manny Machado | #217 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | #210 | 32 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Dane Myers | #190 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-29 | TJ Friedl | #189 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Matt McLain | #186 | 33 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Spencer Steer | #182 | 39 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Noelvi Marte | #178 | 41 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Elly De La Cruz | #177 | 40 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Tyler Stephenson | #175 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Eugenio Suárez | #174 | 55 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sal Stewart | #172 | 56 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |