2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 10 Bo Bichette 4 HRs · 11 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 12 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs 1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 10 Bo Bichette 4 HRs · 11 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 12 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs
HOU
@ 7:07p
TOR
Rogers Centre · 15 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 7:07p · roof unknown
Park 1.18× Wind 0 mph dome unknown
Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.18

Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Mike Burrows
Mike Burrows RHP 💥 Meltdown
1.92 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +1.00 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Kazuma Okamoto Kazuma Okamoto 76 🟡 B +625 · 2 0.221 92.2 11.4% 30.9% vs RHP 400 18.3% 33.3% 33.2% 26
2 George Springer George Springer 61 🔵 C+ · · 32 0.173 88.3 8.3% 21.9% vs RHP 392 10.1% 25.0% 23.6% 35
3 Daulton Varsho Daulton Varsho 60 🔵 C+ +850 🔥 HOT 37 0.154 86.2 8.0% 14.3% vs RHP 386 9.8% 50.0% 22.7% 10
4 Davis Schneider Davis Schneider 60 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 39 0.145 88.5 10.3% 14.3% vs RHP 399 5.3% 33.3% 18.0% 17
5 Alejandro Kirk Alejandro Kirk 49 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 91 0.180 85.5 4.9% 22.2% vs RHP 394 5.6% 0.0% 14.6% 19
6 Andres Gimenez Andres Gimenez 44 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 122 0.139 86.5 5.9% 14.3% vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 27
7 Nathan Lukes Nathan Lukes 37 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 181 0.098 86.3 2.6% 10.0% vs RHP 383 3.4% 10.0% 10.7% 28
Trey Yesavage
Trey Yesavage RHP
0.82 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.49 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Yordan Alvarez Yordan Alvarez 72 🟡 B +575 🌧️ COOL 6 0.311 94.5 9.5% 27.4% vs RHP 400 27.3% 0.0% 27.9% 40
2 Brice Matthews Brice Matthews 49 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 89 0.139 88.1 6.7% 11.1% vs RHP 410 10.5% 25.0% 17.8% 18
3 Jeremy Peña Jeremy Peña 48 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 93 0.167 86.9 4.6% 16.1% vs RHP 388 9.4% 18.2% 23.0% 33
4 Cam Smith Cam Smith 48 ⚪ D · · 97 0.133 89.6 7.6% 15.6% vs RHP 418 11.0% 18.2% 12.5% 35
5 Isaac Paredes Isaac Paredes 47 ⚪ D · · 102 0.168 87.1 5.6% 20.0% vs RHP 367 10.7% 9.1% 14.4% 31
6 Jose Altuve Jose Altuve 45 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 114 0.158 85.9 5.8% 26.9% vs RHP 376 6.7% 0.0% 24.7% 32
7 Yainer Diaz Yainer Diaz 41 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 147 0.111 87.7 4.9% 11.8% vs RHP 383 6.2% 20.0% 14.6% 14
8 Joey Loperfido Joey Loperfido 32 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 210 0.078 89.6 5.6% 0.0% vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 21
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.21 · build 521

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.