PJ Poulin
LHP
WSH
6
HRs Allowed
8.8%
HR Rate (Pool)
17.6%
Overall HR/FB
5.75
FIP
5.34
xFIP
+0.41
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
0.75
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
17.6%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
84th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
70.3%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
5.75
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
91th pctile
5.34
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.41
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
70th pctile
8.8%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
68
Pool Matchups
6
HRs Allowed (Pool)
5
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
8.8%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 25.0% | 2.0 | 101.2mph | 102.0mph | 28.0° | 384ft | Up +16.2pp |
| Last 15 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 17.4% | 1.33 | 99.4mph | 102.0mph | 28.0° | 384ft | Up +8.6pp |
| Last 30 | 41 | 5 | 5 | 12.2% | 1.0 | 98.1mph | 102.9mph | 30.0° | 382ft | Up +3.4pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
98.8
Avg Max EV
112.2
Max EV Allowed
45
Hard-Hit Proxy · 70.3%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
102.9
Avg HR EV
30.5°
Avg HR Launch
385
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Alec Bohm | 106.8mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Bryson Stott | 104.7mph | 104.4mph | 31° | 403ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-23 | Brandon Marsh | 103.8mph | 103.8mph | 28° | 400ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-23 | Trea Turner | 103.8mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Justin Crawford | 101.8mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-19 | Junior Caminero | 112.2mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-19 | Yandy Díaz | 107.7mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-19 | Jonny DeLuca | 104.6mph | 104.6mph | 29° | 398ft | Yes |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Brandon Marsh | #91 | 49 | Nationals Park | 103.8mph | 28.0° | 400ft |
| 2026-06-23 | Bryson Stott | #123 | 43 | Nationals Park | 104.4mph | 31.0° | 403ft |
| 2026-06-19 | Jonathan Aranda | #62 | 54 | Tropicana Field | 95.2mph | 24.0° | 334ft |
| 2026-06-19 | Jonny DeLuca | #146 | 39 | Tropicana Field | 104.6mph | 29.0° | 398ft |
| 2026-05-25 | Rhys Hoskins | #62 | 54 | Progressive Field | 106.6mph | 38.0° | 377.0ft |
| 2026-03-31 | Kyle Schwarber | #41 | 57 | Citizens Bank Park | 103.0mph | 33.0° | 397.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweeper | 207 | 35.4% | -0.6 | 80.8 | 23.8° | 2 |
| Fastball | 174 | 29.8% | +1.1 | 87.9 | 26.4° | 2 |
| Sinker | 125 | 21.4% | -3.4 | 85.4 | 1.7° | 0 |
| Changeup | 78 | 13.4% | +1.7 | 80.1 | 0.2° | 0 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
70.3%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Justin Crawford | #210 | 27 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Trea Turner | #177 | 35 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Alec Bohm | #129 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Bryson Stott | #123 | 43 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-06-23 | Brandon Marsh | #91 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-23 | Bryce Harper | #17 | 68 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Kyle Schwarber | #2 | 82 | 🟢 A | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-19 | Chandler Simpson | #208 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-19 | Richie Palacios | #195 | 26 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-19 | Taylor Walls | #158 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-19 | Jonny DeLuca | #146 | 39 | ⚪ D | · — | 💥 |
| 2026-06-19 | Hunter Feduccia | #105 | 48 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-19 | Cedric Mullins | #88 | 50 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-19 | Yandy Díaz | #68 | 53 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-19 | Jonathan Aranda | #62 | 54 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-19 | Junior Caminero | #19 | 68 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Jhonny Pereda | #169 | 37 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Josh Naylor | #131 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Cole Young | #126 | 44 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Julio Rodríguez | #70 | 53 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Luke Raley | #21 | 67 | 🔵 C+ | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Colt Emerson | #15 | 70 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Dominic Canzone | #5 | 81 | 🟢 A | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Steven Kwan | #248 | 22 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Austin Hedges | #218 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Daniel Schneemann | #108 | 46 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Brayan Rocchio | #100 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Travis Bazzana | #63 | 57 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Chase DeLauter | #55 | 58 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | José Ramírez | #53 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Angel Martínez | #29 | 67 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Kyle Manzardo | #21 | 70 | 🟡 B | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Steven Kwan | #221 | 19 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Brayan Rocchio | #112 | 43 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Patrick Bailey | #94 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Travis Bazzana | #68 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Rhys Hoskins | #62 | 54 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-25 | Chase DeLauter | #55 | 56 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-25 | José Ramírez | #54 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Kyle Manzardo | #22 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Angel Martínez | #15 | 69 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Edgar Quero | #207 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Tristan Peters | #193 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Chase Meidroth | #174 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Luisangel Acuña | #163 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Sam Antonacci | #81 | 59 | 🟠 C | · — | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Everson Pereira | #56 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Miguel Vargas | #49 | 66 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Colson Montgomery | #34 | 71 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Munetaka Murakami | #8 | 83 | 🟢 A | · — | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Drew Gilbert | #201 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Luis Arraez | #190 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Patrick Bailey | #168 | 36 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Jung Hoo Lee | #136 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Matt Chapman | #94 | 51 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Heliot Ramos | #77 | 55 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Rafael Devers | #76 | 55 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Casey Schmitt | #34 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Willy Adames | #33 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Bryson Stott | #182 | 31 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-31 | J.T. Realmuto | #172 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Trea Turner | #171 | 34 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Alec Bohm | #167 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Nick Castellanos | #158 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Brandon Marsh | #149 | 36 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Max Kepler | #144 | 39 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Bryce Harper | #90 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Kyle Schwarber | #41 | 57 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |