2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs
Robert Gasser
Robert Gasser LHP MIL
51 matchups scored · 6 game days
8 HRs Allowed
15.7% HR Rate (Pool)
11.8% Overall HR/FB
4.55 FIP
4.94 xFIP
-0.39 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
1.33
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
11.8%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
43th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
64.0%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
4.55
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
68th pctile
4.94
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.39
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
28th pctile
15.7%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
51
Pool Matchups
8
HRs Allowed (Pool)
2
Top-15 Matchups
1
HRs to Top-15
15.7%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 16 2 0 0.0% 0.0 91.7mph · · · Down -15.7pp
Last 15 24 3 5 20.8% 1.67 94.7mph 102.1mph 28.0° 413ft Up +5.1pp
Last 30 42 5 7 16.7% 1.4 96.2mph 102.6mph 29.8° 399ft Flat +1.0pp
Batted-Ball Damage
50 tracked BBE from 51 pool matchups
96.1
107.4
32
0
102.1
29.9°
398
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-21 Drake Baldwin 102.8mph · · · ·
2026-06-16 Travis Bazzana 102.1mph · · · ·
2026-06-09 Henry Bolte 106.9mph 106.9mph 27° 446ft Yes
2026-06-09 Shea Langeliers 106.6mph · · · ·
2026-06-09 Max Muncy 105.2mph · · · ·
2026-06-09 Jonah Heim 104.1mph 104.1mph 21° 426ft Yes
2026-06-09 Zack Gelof 102.5mph 102.5mph 38° 427ft Yes
2026-06-09 Tyler Soderstrom 95.0mph 95.0mph 26° 354ft Yes
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
6 days · 8 total HRs
HRs Allowed
8 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-09 Nick Kurtz #4 77 Las Vegas Ballpark · · ·
2026-06-09 Tyler Soderstrom #20 65 Las Vegas Ballpark 95.0mph 26.0° 354ft
2026-06-09 Jonah Heim #23 65 Las Vegas Ballpark 104.1mph 21.0° 426ft
2026-06-09 Zack Gelof #82 50 Las Vegas Ballpark 102.5mph 38.0° 427ft
2026-06-09 Henry Bolte #146 40 Las Vegas Ballpark 106.9mph 27.0° 446ft
2026-06-03 Victor Bericoto #245 22 American Family Field 102.7mph 29.0° 385ft
2026-05-23 Teoscar Hernández #137 46 American Family Field 104.3mph 38.0° 357.0ft
2026-05-17 Ryan Jeffers #33 70 Target Field 99.0mph 30.0° 389.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Sinker 164 28.4% +0.4 83.8 11.6° 1
Sweeper 157 27.2% +1.0 82.7 24.9° 2
Fastball 116 20.1% -1.7 80.4 42.2° 0
Cutter 93 16.1% -1.3 86.5 13.1° 1
Changeup 48 8.3% +5.7 86.7 23.6° 2
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
64.0%
64.0%
All Scored Matchups
51 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-21 Ha-Seong Kim #233 18 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-21 Joey Bart #179 35 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-21 Mauricio Dubón #140 42 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-21 Ozzie Albies #137 42 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-21 Austin Riley #110 46 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-21 Eli White #84 52 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-21 Drake Baldwin #23 66 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-21 Matt Olson #16 70 🟡 B 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-16 Steven Kwan #218 20 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-16 Austin Hedges #151 40 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-16 Brayan Rocchio #145 41 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-16 David Fry #139 42 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-16 Travis Bazzana #111 47 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-16 Rhys Hoskins #73 54 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-16 Kyle Manzardo #64 55 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-16 Gabriel Arias #54 58 🟠 C · — ·
2026-06-09 Henry Bolte #146 40 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT 💥
2026-06-09 Zack Gelof #82 50 🟠 C 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-09 Colby Thomas #58 54 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-09 Jonah Heim #23 65 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-09 Tyler Soderstrom #20 65 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-09 Max Muncy #18 65 🔵 C+ ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-09 Shea Langeliers #6 75 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-09 Nick Kurtz #4 77 🟡 B 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-03 Victor Bericoto #245 22 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-03 Luis Arraez #233 25 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-03 Daniel Susac #211 29 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-03 Matt Chapman #176 36 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-03 Jung Hoo Lee #139 41 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-03 Rafael Devers #60 55 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-03 Willy Adames #48 58 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-03 Bryce Eldridge #34 62 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-03 Casey Schmitt #16 68 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-23 Miguel Rojas #237 30 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-23 Kyle Tucker #228 32 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-23 Santiago Espinal #220 34 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-23 Will Smith #182 40 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-23 Teoscar Hernández #137 46 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-23 Freddie Freeman #136 46 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-23 Andy Pages #112 49 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-23 Mookie Betts #111 49 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-23 Shohei Ohtani #63 59 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-17 James Outman #250 18 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-17 Austin Martin #235 24 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-17 Luke Keaschall #230 26 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-17 Victor Caratini #225 28 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-17 Brooks Lee #187 35 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-17 Royce Lewis #137 45 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-17 Ryan Kreidler #79 55 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-17 Kody Clemens #50 62 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-17 Ryan Jeffers #33 70 🟡 B ➖ NTRL 💥
Six home runs to freedom

Robert Gasser's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see vulnerability signals, today’s threat breakdown, recent splits, batted-ball damage, and every scored matchup.

51 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.21 · build 521

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.