2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 10 Bo Bichette 4 HRs · 11 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 12 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs 1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 10 Bo Bichette 4 HRs · 11 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 12 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs
BOS
@ 1:10p
COL
Coors Field · 15 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open
Park 1.13× Wind 2 mph in 85°F open
+6
4 mph · slight_out
69°F
1:10p
Boost for HR environment
+6
4 mph · slight_out
69°F
2:10p
Boost for HR environment
+6
4 mph · slight_out
69°F
3:10p
Boost for HR environment
+6
4 mph · slight_out
69°F
4:10p
Boost for HR environment
+6
4 mph · slight_out
69°F
5:10p
Boost for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.24

85°F, wind 2 mph NW (in) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Kyle Freeland
Kyle Freeland LHP 💥 Meltdown
1.81 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.76 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Willson Contreras Willson Contreras 72 🟡 B · 🌧️ COOL 5 0.232 90.0 11.0% 31.2% vs LHP 402 19.2% 16.7% 36.1% 29
2 Wilyer Abreu Wilyer Abreu 61 🔵 C+ · · 35 0.160 89.8 10.5% 5.6% vs LHP 402 13.7% 27.3% 14.2% 34
3 Ceddanne Rafaela Ceddanne Rafaela 54 🟠 C · ❄ COLD 66 0.171 86.4 7.4% 14.3% vs LHP 370 9.7% 16.7% 13.8% 38
4 Caleb Durbin Caleb Durbin 48 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 94 0.141 85.2 5.5% 7.7% vs LHP 388 5.8% 27.3% 16.3% 36
5 Andruw Monasterio Andruw Monasterio 46 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 112 0.123 88.1 7.3% 16.7% vs LHP 398 12.5% 0.0% 10.3% 13
6 Carlos Narvaez Carlos Narvaez 39 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 165 0.082 91.0 7.6% 0.0% vs LHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 6
7 Connor Wong Connor Wong 39 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 169 0.102 87.0 6.6% 0.0% vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 10
Ranger Suarez
Ranger Suarez LHP
0.68 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.49 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Hunter Goodman Hunter Goodman 70 🟡 B · · 10 0.274 90.9 9.8% 35.7% vs LHP 404 25.0% 16.7% 32.8% 33
2 Tj Rumfield Tj Rumfield 45 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 113 0.202 84.4 6.2% 7.1% vs LHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 21.9% 42
3 Braxton Fulford Braxton Fulford 41 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 151 0.154 88.8 7.3% 6.7% 376 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 8
4 Kyle Karros Kyle Karros 41 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 152 0.129 89.4 6.7% 6.7% vs LHP 404 6.9% 11.1% 7.3% 28
5 Willi Castro Willi Castro 40 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 154 0.115 88.8 6.0% 7.7% vs LHP 425 6.9% 16.7% 11.9% 38
6 Ezequiel Tovar Ezequiel Tovar 40 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 160 0.129 88.0 6.9% 0.0% vs LHP 415 7.0% 8.3% 6.4% 21
7 Jake Mccarthy Jake Mccarthy 39 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 164 0.170 84.4 5.4% 0.0% vs LHP 418 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 30
8 Tyler Freeman Tyler Freeman 29 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 222 0.095 87.6 2.8% 25.0% vs LHP 369 3.3% 0.0% 9.4% 24
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.21 · build 521

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.