2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 10 Bo Bichette 4 HRs · 11 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 12 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs 1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 10 Bo Bichette 4 HRs · 11 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 12 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs
MIL
@ 7:10p
CIN
Great American Ball Park · 17 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open
Park 1.06× Wind 3 mph out 82°F open
+5
3 mph · out
70°F
7:10p
Boost for HR environment
+5
3 mph · out
70°F
8:10p
Boost for HR environment
+5
3 mph · out
70°F
9:10p
Boost for HR environment
+5
3 mph · out
70°F
10:10p
Boost for HR environment
+5
3 mph · out
70°F
11:10p
Boost for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.17

82°F, wind 3 mph SE (out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Rhett Lowder
Rhett Lowder RHP
0.81 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.37 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Jake Bauers Jake Bauers 67 🔵 C+ +850 🌤️ WARM 16 0.260 92.6 10.2% 35.9% vs RHP 399 18.9% 11.1% 23.3% 17
2 Jackson Chourio Jackson Chourio 67 🔵 C+ +750 🌧️ COOL 17 0.239 92.3 10.4% 20.0% vs RHP 395 18.4% 27.3% 21.2% 40
3 Brice Turang Brice Turang 54 🟠 C +1000 · 64 0.196 91.0 8.6% 28.9% vs RHP 406 10.8% 9.1% 14.7% 28
4 Garrett Mitchell Garrett Mitchell 53 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 69 0.156 92.3 10.3% 25.0% vs RHP 422 7.1% 20.0% 16.8% 27
5 William Contreras William Contreras 45 ⚪ D +850 🌤️ WARM 120 0.143 90.5 7.7% 16.7% vs RHP 418 9.9% 9.1% 7.2% 35
6 Christian Yelich Christian Yelich 43 ⚪ D +950 🌧️ COOL 134 0.138 88.2 7.3% 15.8% vs RHP 399 7.3% 11.1% 8.9% 26
7 David Hamilton David Hamilton 34 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 201 0.100 86.3 5.8% 7.5% vs RHP 383 5.6% 0.0% 7.5% 17
8 Sal Frelick Sal Frelick 30 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 217 0.090 85.9 4.0% 6.7% vs RHP 402 3.2% 0.0% 7.4% 23
Shane Drohan
Shane Drohan LHP
0.76 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.49 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Elly De La Cruz Elly De La Cruz 59 🟠 C +800 🌤️ WARM 45 0.237 94.2 10.9% 35.3% vs LHP 394 15.8% 0.0% 18.2% 1
2 Spencer Steer Spencer Steer 58 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 47 0.194 89.5 10.4% 28.6% vs LHP 394 12.3% 30.0% 25.6% 23
3 Sal Stewart Sal Stewart 54 🟠 C +950 · 63 0.197 90.8 10.8% 35.7% vs LHP 395 9.5% 8.3% 16.4% 33
4 Noelvi Marte Noelvi Marte 51 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 77 0.186 88.3 6.7% 20.0% vs LHP 429 11.1% 30.0% 22.3% 28
5 Tyler Stephenson Tyler Stephenson 45 ⚪ D +800 · 119 0.142 90.7 9.2% 8.3% vs LHP 384 8.1% 14.3% 12.4% 14
6 Matt Mclain Matt Mclain 41 ⚪ D +950 🔥 HOT 145 0.156 88.8 8.9% 26.7% vs LHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 17
7 Eugenio Suarez Eugenio Suarez 39 ⚪ D +700 · 163 0.148 87.1 7.9% 20.0% vs LHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 24
8 Dane Myers Dane Myers 38 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 174 0.121 90.0 8.1% 13.3% vs LHP 378 7.4% 0.0% 8.6% 8
9 Blake Dunn Blake Dunn 30 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 216 0.106 89.0 4.8% 6.7% 381 3.6% 0.0% 7.7% 30
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.21 · build 521

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.