2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Hunter Dobbins
Hunter Dobbins RHP STL
16 matchups scored · 2 game days
4 HRs Allowed
25.0% HR Rate (Pool)
6.3% Overall HR/FB
2.5 FIP
2.88 xFIP
-0.39 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
2.0
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
6.3%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
7th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
75.0%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
2.5
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
8th pctile
2.88
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.39
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
29th pctile
25.0%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
16
Pool Matchups
4
HRs Allowed (Pool)
0
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
25.0%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 7 1 3 42.9% 3.0 101.3mph 103.3mph 28.7° 389ft Up +17.9pp
Last 15 7 1 3 42.9% 3.0 101.3mph 103.3mph 28.7° 389ft Up +17.9pp
Last 30 7 1 3 42.9% 3.0 101.3mph 103.3mph 28.7° 389ft Up +17.9pp
Batted-Ball Damage
16 tracked BBE from 16 pool matchups
98.9
110.0
12
0
104.9
28.2°
396
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-11 Juan Soto 108.9mph 101.2mph 30° 398ft Yes
2026-06-11 Jared Young 105.6mph 105.6mph 22° 390ft Yes
2026-06-11 Bo Bichette 104.9mph 103.0mph 34° 378ft Yes
2026-06-11 MJ Melendez 102.2mph · · · ·
2026-04-30 Brandon Lowe 110.0mph 110.0mph 27° 416ft Yes
2026-04-30 Konnor Griffin 106.4mph · · · ·
2026-04-30 Henry Davis 104.7mph · · · ·
2026-04-30 Bryan Reynolds 101.1mph · · · ·
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
2 days · 4 total HRs
HRs Allowed
4 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-11 Juan Soto #17 64 Citi Field 101.2mph 30.0° 398ft
2026-06-11 Jared Young #24 61 Citi Field 105.6mph 22.0° 390ft
2026-06-11 Bo Bichette #89 37 Citi Field 103.0mph 34.0° 378ft
2026-04-30 Brandon Lowe #78 30 PNC Park 110.0mph 27.0° 416.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Fastball 96 32.5% +0.2 82.5 28.8° 0
Slider 58 19.7% -0.3 83.2 12.8° 1
Sinker 40 13.6% -8.8 87.1 3.9° 0
Sweeper 37 12.5% +4.9 91.6 22.5° 1
Splitter 35 11.9% +1.2 82.8 8.6° 1
Curveball 29 9.8% +2.2 82.8 25.7° 0
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
75.0%
75.0%
All Scored Matchups
16 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-11 Brett Baty #102 31 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-11 Bo Bichette #89 37 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-11 Carson Benge #46 52 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-11 Marcus Semien #32 56 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-11 Jared Young #24 61 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-11 MJ Melendez #23 61 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-11 Juan Soto #17 64 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL 💥
2026-04-30 Henry Davis #180 5 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-30 Nick Gonzales #179 6 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-30 Bryan Reynolds #177 8 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-30 Jake Mangum #165 14 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-30 Konnor Griffin #164 14 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-04-30 Spencer Horwitz #121 21 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-30 Ryan O'Hearn #84 29 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-30 Brandon Lowe #78 30 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-04-30 Oneil Cruz #36 48 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
Six home runs to freedom

Hunter Dobbins's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see vulnerability signals, today’s threat breakdown, recent splits, batted-ball damage, and every scored matchup.

16 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 516

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.