LongDong™️ — Morning Wizard

Step 1 of 9

Park + Weather

Today's most HR-friendly environments — parks and weather conditions that favor the long ball.

CHC

NYM

CHC @ NYM Wind out 1.509

Citi Field Park × 1.08 hot air · strong partial wind out · roof open

1.08× 82.0°F 16.0 mph open

· · #13 Mark Vientos

TEX

TOR

TEX @ TOR Neutral 1.157

Rogers Centre Park × 1.16 neutral

1.16× 0 mph

#4 Kazuma Okamoto · ·

PHI

WSH

PHI @ WSH Wind in 1.100

Nationals Park Park × 1.00 hot air · light wind in · roof open

1.00× 87.4°F 7 mph open

· #8 James Wood ·

HOU

DET

HOU @ DET Wind out 1.082

Comerica Park Park × 0.98 warm air · light partial wind out · roof open

0.98× 79.2°F 3 mph open

· · #18 Christian Walker

NYY

BOS

NYY @ BOS Wind out 1.045

Fenway Park Park × 0.95 hot air · light wind out · roof open

0.95× 83.7°F 3 mph open

#1 Ben Rice · ·

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Step 2 of 9

🎯

Susceptible Pitchers

Pitchers on today's slate with the highest HR-susceptibility scores — they give up dingers at elevated rates.

Jeffrey Springs ⚠️ High

21 HRs · 0.250 HR/IP · 19.6% HR/FB · 5.63 ERA

FIP 5.63 · xFIP 4.36 · Gap +1.27

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Step 3 of 9

💥

FIP-xFIP Gap Risk

Pitchers pitching today whose FIP is running above xFIP, pointing to HR over-allowance.

Tatsuya Imai 8.6% HR rate

58 apps · 5 HRs · FIP 5.77 · xFIP 4.93 · Gap +0.84

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Step 4 of 9

⚡

Splits Edge

Batter-pitcher matchups where handedness creates a significant HR/FB advantage over the batter's overall rate.

Carson Kelly vs Freddy Peralta +100%

RHB vs RHP · Matchup HR/FB 10.6% (overall 5.3%)

⚪ D #75

Jorbit Vivas vs Cristopher Sánchez +98%

LHB vs LHP · Matchup HR/FB 10.7% (overall 5.4%)

⚪ D #114

Juan Soto vs Matthew Boyd +89%

LHB vs LHP · Matchup HR/FB 30.3% (overall 16.0%)

🟡 B #2

Marcelo Mayer vs Cam Schlittler +83%

LHB vs RHP · Matchup HR/FB 5.3% (overall 2.9%)

⚪ D #132

Jonah Heim vs Landen Roupp +71%

SHB vs RHP · Matchup HR/FB 9.6% (overall 5.6%)

⚪ D #90

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Step 5 of 9

🎯

Arsenal Edges

Pitch-type exploits — batters who crush the exact pitches their opponent throws most.

Jordan Walker vs Zac Gallen 9.6

Knuckle Curve (Breaking) · 19% usage

Bat RV/100: 14.8 · Pit RV/100: 2.9 · 1 bat HRs

Alika Williams vs Landen Roupp 9.3

Cutter (Hard) · 13% usage

Bat RV/100: 16.9 · Pit RV/100: 1.3 · 1 bat HRs

Trea Turner vs Cade Cavalli 7.1

Knuckle Curve (Breaking) · 29% usage

Bat RV/100: 9.4 · Pit RV/100: -0.1 · 0 bat HRs

Bryce Eldridge vs Jeffrey Springs 6.8

Fastball (Hard) · 43% usage

Bat RV/100: 4.6 · Pit RV/100: 1.3 · 5 bat HRs

Casey Schmitt vs Jeffrey Springs 6.8

Changeup (Offspeed) · 23% usage

Bat RV/100: 8.6 · Pit RV/100: 1.9 · 4 bat HRs

View full report →

Step 6 of 9

🔥

Hot / Cold Streaks

Who's been raking and who's been ice cold over the last 7 tracked days.

🔥 Hot (2+ HRs in 7 days)

Ben Rice 2 HRs / 4 games

Byron Buxton 2 HRs / 7 games

Max Muncy 2 HRs / 4 games

Pete Alonso 2 HRs / 3 games

Shohei Ohtani 2 HRs / 5 games

❄️ Cold (0 HRs in 3+ games)

Hunter Goodman 0 HRs / 5 games

Juan Soto 0 HRs / 4 games

JJ Bleday 0 HRs / 3 games

Jake Bauers 0 HRs / 3 games

James Wood 0 HRs / 3 games

Step 7 of 9

💨

Unlucky Barrels

Batters who crushed the ball (EV 105+ mph) but didn't get the HR — regression candidates due to break through.

Ian Happ 109.0 mph max EV

6 apps · 0 HRs · 4 hard-hit games · Avg max EV 107.0

Jackson Chourio 108.5 mph max EV

5 apps · 0 HRs · 4 hard-hit games · Avg max EV 103.9

Nick Kurtz 109.5 mph max EV

4 apps · 1 HRs · 4 hard-hit games · Avg max EV 109.0

Brandon Nimmo 110.5 mph max EV

5 apps · 1 HRs · 4 hard-hit games · Avg max EV 107.1

Kyle Stowers 107.2 mph max EV

5 apps · 1 HRs · 4 hard-hit games · Avg max EV 104.5

View full report →

Step 8 of 9

👑

Today's Top Picks

The top 10 matchups on the board — your starting point for building today's locks.

#1

Ben Rice vs Connelly Early

78 🟡 B NYY @ BOS

#2

Juan Soto vs Matthew Boyd

75 🟡 B 🌧️ COOL CHC @ NYM

#3

Kyle Schwarber vs Cade Cavalli

75 🟡 B PHI @ WSH

#4

Kazuma Okamoto vs MacKenzie Gore

70 🟡 B 🌧️ COOL TEX @ TOR

#5

Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Freddy Peralta

69 🔵 C+ 🌧️ COOL CHC @ NYM

#6

Paul Goldschmidt vs Connelly Early

69 🔵 C+ NYY @ BOS

#7

Dillon Dingler vs Tatsuya Imai

67 🔵 C+ 🌧️ COOL HOU @ DET

#8

James Wood vs Cristopher Sánchez

67 🔵 C+ PHI @ WSH

#9

Corey Seager vs Kevin Gausman

65 🔵 C+ 🌤️ WARM TEX @ TOR

#10

Yordan Alvarez vs Troy Melton

64 🔵 C+ 🌧️ COOL HOU @ DET

Step 9 of 9

📋

Wizard Summary

Here's everyone you locked during your morning research. Ready to go!

That was a sample wizard from 2026-06-25. The real one uses today's live data.

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Morning Wizard (Trial)

Park + Weather

Susceptible Pitchers

FIP-xFIP Gap Risk

Splits Edge

Arsenal Edges

Hot / Cold Streaks

🔥 Hot (2+ HRs in 7 days)

❄️ Cold (0 HRs in 3+ games)

Unlucky Barrels

Today's Top Picks

Wizard Summary

The top 10 picks. Every morning.