Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-06-25T11:00:42-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-25
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jordan Walker | Zac Gallen | Knuckle Curve | +14.8 | +2.9 | 19% | 1 | 2 | #11 | |
| · | Trea Turner | Cade Cavalli | Knuckle Curve | +9.4 | -0.1 | 29% | 0 | 2 | #118 | |
| · | Casey Schmitt | Jeffrey Springs | Changeup | +8.6 | +1.9 | 23% | 4 | 5 | #21 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Connelly Early | Fastball | +6.9 | +0.0 | 36% | 7 | 6 | #6 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Connelly Early | Fastball | +6.7 | +0.0 | 36% | 11 | 6 | #1 | |
| · | Alec Burleson | Zac Gallen | Knuckle Curve | +7.9 | +2.9 | 19% | 0 | 2 | #23 | |
| · | Jj Wetherholt | Zac Gallen | Knuckle Curve | +7.5 | +2.9 | 19% | 0 | 2 | #84 | |
| · | Jung Hoo Lee | Jeffrey Springs | Fastball | +3.3 | +1.3 | 43% | 3 | 9 | #94 | |
| · | Luke Raley | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +2.2 | +0.2 | 49% | 6 | 5 | #17 | |
| · | George Springer | MacKenzie Gore | Cutter | +10.3 | +1.4 | 9% | 3 | 3 | #31 | |
| · | Colt Emerson | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +2.1 | +0.2 | 49% | 4 | 5 | #25 | |
| · | Isaac Collins | Casey Legumina | Sweeper | +6.3 | +3.9 | 17% | 1 | 1 | #115 | |
| · | Carson Kelly | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.3 | -0.4 | 53% | 0 | 4 | #72 | |
| · | Kazuma Okamoto | MacKenzie Gore | Fastball | +3.6 | -1.2 | 44% | 8 | 2 | #4 | |
| · | Yordan Alvarez | Troy Melton | Fastball | +2.9 | +0.7 | 40% | 7 | 5 | #8 | |
| · | Brandon Lowe | Bryce Miller | Fastball | +3.2 | -1.6 | 47% | 8 | 3 | #38 | |
| · | Seiya Suzuki | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.9 | -0.4 | 53% | 3 | 4 | #50 | |
| · | Ian Happ | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.8 | -0.4 | 53% | 6 | 4 | #13 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Cade Cavalli | Fastball | +3.7 | +1.1 | 35% | 8 | 3 | #20 | |
| · | Dansby Swanson | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.8 | -0.4 | 53% | 4 | 4 | #47 | |
| · | Josh Naylor | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +1.1 | +0.2 | 49% | 5 | 5 | #108 | |
| · | Zack Gelof | Landen Roupp | Cutter | +8.2 | +1.3 | 13% | 2 | 1 | #60 | |
| · | Bryan Reynolds | Bryce Miller | Fastball | +2.9 | -1.6 | 47% | 6 | 3 | #64 | |
| · | Alec Burleson | Zac Gallen | Fastball | +2.4 | +1.4 | 37% | 5 | 6 | #23 | |
| · | Michael Busch | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.1 | -0.4 | 53% | 4 | 4 | #44 | |
| · | Jose Altuve | Troy Melton | Fastball | +2.2 | +0.7 | 40% | 3 | 5 | #77 | |
| · | Alex Bregman | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.1 | -0.4 | 53% | 3 | 4 | #83 | |
| · | Tyler Callihan | Bryce Miller | Fastball | +2.3 | -1.6 | 47% | 1 | 3 | #87 | |
| · | Drew Gilbert | Jeffrey Springs | Fastball | +1.0 | +1.3 | 43% | 2 | 9 | #112 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Cade Cavalli | Fastball | +2.8 | +1.1 | 35% | 8 | 3 | #3 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.6 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.1 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+19.7 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.