Merrill Kelly
RHP
AZ
10
HRs Allowed
10.8%
HR Rate (Pool)
22.2%
Overall HR/FB
6.88
FIP
5.55
xFIP
+1.33
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
0.91
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
22.2%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
92th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
75.9%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
6.88
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
97th pctile
5.55
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+1.33
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
95th pctile
10.8%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
93
Pool Matchups
10
HRs Allowed (Pool)
9
Top-15 Matchups
3
HRs to Top-15
10.8%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 14.3% | 1.0 | 99.9mph | 106.0mph | 28.0° | 428ft | Up +3.5pp |
| Last 15 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 8.7% | 0.67 | 98.3mph | 106.0mph | 28.0° | 428ft | Down -2.1pp |
| Last 30 | 48 | 6 | 7 | 14.6% | 1.17 | 99.3mph | 105.1mph | 26.6° | 401ft | Up +3.8pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
100.0
Avg Max EV
113.7
Max EV Allowed
60
Hard-Hit Proxy · 75.9%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
105.8
Avg HR EV
25.6°
Avg HR Launch
395
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Masyn Winn | 107.5mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Iván Herrera | 106.3mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Nathan Church | 100.1mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Jimmy Crooks | 100.1mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Mike Trout | 110.8mph | 104.0mph | 29° | 436ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-16 | Zach Neto | 108.0mph | 108.0mph | 27° | 421ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-16 | Jo Adell | 105.3mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Logan O'Hoppe | 102.7mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Mike Trout | #10 | 73 | Chase Field | 104.0mph | 29.0° | 436ft |
| 2026-06-16 | Zach Neto | #30 | 65 | Chase Field | 108.0mph | 27.0° | 421ft |
| 2026-06-05 | James Wood | #3 | 81 | Chase Field | 105.9mph | 29.0° | 419ft |
| 2026-06-05 | Cj Abrams | #38 | 61 | Chase Field | 106.0mph | 20.0° | 386ft |
| 2026-06-05 | Daylen Lile | #103 | 46 | Chase Field | 101.2mph | 30.0° | 393ft |
| 2026-05-31 | Dominic Canzone | #25 | 70 | T-Mobile Park | 105.0mph | 26.0° | 364ft |
| 2026-05-31 | Cole Young | #170 | 39 | T-Mobile Park | 105.4mph | 25.0° | 389ft |
| 2026-05-20 | Casey Schmitt | #46 | 60 | Chase Field | 109.9mph | 22.0° | 369.0ft |
| 2026-05-15 | Hunter Goodman | #17 | 78 | Coors Field | 111.4mph | 19.0° | 387.0ft |
| 2026-05-03 | Moisés Ballesteros | #12 | 46 | Wrigley Field | 101.0mph | 29.0° | 389.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 326 | 26.4% | +1.6 | 85.8 | 31.3° | 6 |
| Changeup | 319 | 25.8% | +1.1 | 82.8 | -0.8° | 2 |
| Cutter | 188 | 15.2% | +4.5 | 86.2 | 31.1° | 5 |
| Slider | 143 | 11.6% | -0.4 | 80.7 | 9.5° | 0 |
| Curveball | 141 | 11.4% | +0.3 | 84.1 | 4.1° | 2 |
| Sinker | 118 | 9.6% | +2.1 | 85.9 | 3.7° | 2 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
75.9%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Masyn Winn | #188 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Jimmy Crooks | #151 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Nathan Church | #129 | 43 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-22 | JJ Wetherholt | #109 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Lars Nootbaar | #99 | 48 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Iván Herrera | #84 | 50 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Alec Burleson | #26 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Jordan Walker | #21 | 67 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Nolan Schanuel | #184 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Jo Adell | #117 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Oswald Peraza | #116 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Logan O'Hoppe | #96 | 50 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Zach Neto | #30 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-16 | Mike Trout | #10 | 73 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-11 | Javier Sanoja | #107 | 30 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-11 | Jakob Marsee | #106 | 30 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-11 | Xavier Edwards | #82 | 40 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-11 | Joe Mack | #61 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-11 | Otto Lopez | #59 | 49 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-11 | Liam Hicks | #48 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-11 | Kyle Stowers | #29 | 57 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-11 | Owen Caissie | #21 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-11 | Esteury Ruiz | #9 | 71 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Nasim Nuñez | #231 | 18 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Daylen Lile | #103 | 46 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-05 | Keibert Ruiz | #53 | 57 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Jacob Young | #45 | 59 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Cj Abrams | #38 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-05 | Curtis Mead | #14 | 70 | 🟡 B | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-05 | James Wood | #3 | 81 | 🟢 A | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-31 | Josh Naylor | #199 | 33 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Cole Young | #170 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-31 | Jhonny Pereda | #107 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Colt Emerson | #74 | 55 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-31 | J.P. Crawford | #67 | 56 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Randy Arozarena | #50 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Julio Rodríguez | #26 | 70 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Dominic Canzone | #25 | 70 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-31 | Luke Raley | #3 | 84 | 🟢 A | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Drew Gilbert | #181 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Luis Arraez | #180 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Matt Chapman | #137 | 39 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Daniel Susac | #133 | 40 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Bryce Eldridge | #109 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Willy Adames | #38 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Rafael Devers | #21 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Harrison Bader | #12 | 71 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-25 | Casey Schmitt | #4 | 76 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Drew Gilbert | #245 | 21 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Luis Arraez | #238 | 23 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Bryce Eldridge | #235 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Will Brennan | #215 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Matt Chapman | #208 | 29 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Daniel Susac | #114 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Willy Adames | #113 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Rafael Devers | #99 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Casey Schmitt | #46 | 60 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kyle Karros | #176 | 37 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Willi Castro | #154 | 41 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Troy Johnston | #145 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Ezequiel Tovar | #129 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Edouard Julien | #82 | 54 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-15 | TJ Rumfield | #49 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Jake McCarthy | #30 | 70 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Hunter Goodman | #17 | 78 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-15 | Mickey Moniak | #2 | 93 | 🔥 A+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Marcus Semien | #254 | 8 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Brett Baty | #240 | 12 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Bo Bichette | #225 | 15 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Carson Benge | #211 | 18 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Luis Robert Jr. | #195 | 19 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Mark Vientos | #151 | 25 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Francisco Alvarez | #144 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Francisco Lindor | #137 | 27 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Juan Soto | #100 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Carson Kelly | #70 | 35 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Nico Hoerner | #53 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Matt Shaw | #47 | 38 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Michael Busch | #35 | 40 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Ian Happ | #30 | 41 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Alex Bregman | #25 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | #22 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Dansby Swanson | #17 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Moisés Ballesteros | #12 | 46 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-04-21 | Tristan Peters | #242 | 8 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Edgar Quero | #234 | 13 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Luisangel Acuña | #214 | 18 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Chase Meidroth | #198 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Miguel Vargas | #120 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Andrew Benintendi | #112 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Colson Montgomery | #86 | 45 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Everson Pereira | #38 | 57 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Munetaka Murakami | #26 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | · — | · |