Michael Lorenzen
RHP
COL
13
HRs Allowed
9.8%
HR Rate (Pool)
22.1%
Overall HR/FB
5.08
FIP
4.31
xFIP
+0.77
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
0.87
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
22.1%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
92th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
74.0%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
5.08
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
81th pctile
4.31
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.77
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
83th pctile
9.8%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
133
Pool Matchups
13
HRs Allowed (Pool)
13
Top-15 Matchups
2
HRs to Top-15
9.8%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 16.7% | 1.5 | 100.3mph | 105.1mph | 31.3° | 433ft | Up +6.9pp |
| Last 15 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 14.8% | 1.33 | 94.8mph | 103.3mph | 32.0° | 430ft | Up +5.0pp |
| Last 30 | 52 | 6 | 6 | 11.5% | 1.0 | 98.2mph | 105.4mph | 32.0° | 426ft | Flat +1.7pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
98.3
Avg Max EV
114.2
Max EV Allowed
77
Hard-Hit Proxy · 74.0%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
103.4
Avg HR EV
30.7°
Avg HR Launch
412
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Bryan Reynolds | 107.0mph | 107.0mph | 37° | 433ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-21 | Endy Rodríguez | 106.9mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Ryan O'Hearn | 105.8mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Jared Triolo | 105.6mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Brandon Lowe | 105.4mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Nick Gonzales | 102.8mph | 102.2mph | 29° | 431ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-21 | Jake Mangum | 100.7mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 106.0mph | 106.0mph | 28° | 434ft | Yes |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Bryan Reynolds | #28 | 65 | Coors Field | 107.0mph | 37.0° | 433ft |
| 2026-06-21 | Nick Gonzales | #180 | 35 | Coors Field | 102.2mph | 29.0° | 431ft |
| 2026-06-15 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | #19 | 67 | Wrigley Field | 106.0mph | 28.0° | 434ft |
| 2026-06-10 | Ian Happ | #3 | 85 | Coors Field | 98.2mph | 34.0° | 424ft |
| 2026-06-03 | Vaughn Grissom | #87 | 49 | Angel Stadium | 106.8mph | 31.0° | 408ft |
| 2026-05-23 | ketel marte | #88 | 53 | Chase Field | 112.4mph | 33.0° | 424.0ft |
| 2026-05-17 | Corbin Carroll | #28 | 73 | Coors Field | 111.8mph | 24.0° | 448.0ft |
| 2026-05-17 | Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | #199 | 33 | Coors Field | 96.5mph | 36.0° | 379.0ft |
| 2026-05-06 | Juan Soto | #26 | 49 | Coors Field | 104.3mph | 30.0° | 435.0ft |
| 2026-05-06 | Marcus Semien | #139 | 31 | Coors Field | 100.8mph | 29.0° | 395.0ft |
| 2026-04-30 | Nathaniel Lowe | #7 | 80 | Great American Ball Park | 101.7mph | 31.0° | 399.0ft |
| 2026-04-30 | TJ Friedl | #70 | 33 | Great American Ball Park | 96.8mph | 28.0° | 360.0ft |
| 2026-03-28 | Liam Hicks | #155 | 29 | loanDepot Park | 100.3mph | 29.0° | 384.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 290 | 19.7% | +2.2 | 86.7 | 25.9° | 5 |
| Changeup | 276 | 18.7% | +3.7 | 80.0 | 9.3° | 3 |
| Sinker | 238 | 16.2% | +1.8 | 87.4 | 4.9° | 0 |
| Cutter | 208 | 14.1% | +0.4 | 83.3 | 14.3° | 2 |
| Curveball | 201 | 13.6% | +1.6 | 82.3 | -2.4° | 3 |
| Slider | 138 | 9.4% | +1.1 | 83.1 | 10.1° | 1 |
| Sweeper | 122 | 8.3% | +0.1 | 83.1 | 8.1° | 1 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
74.0%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Jared Triolo | #209 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Jake Mangum | #200 | 29 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Nick Gonzales | #180 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-21 | Ryan O'Hearn | #56 | 59 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Spencer Horwitz | #34 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Bryan Reynolds | #28 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | 🔥 HOT | 💥 |
| 2026-06-21 | Tyler Callihan | #15 | 70 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Endy Rodríguez | #13 | 71 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Brandon Lowe | #4 | 77 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Nico Hoerner | #133 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Dansby Swanson | #113 | 37 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Alex Bregman | #107 | 38 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Carson Kelly | #106 | 39 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Moisés Ballesteros | #91 | 42 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Michael Busch | #45 | 56 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Seiya Suzuki | #25 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | #19 | 67 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ian Happ | #9 | 72 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Carson Kelly | #161 | 35 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Nico Hoerner | #140 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Alex Bregman | #117 | 43 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Dansby Swanson | #94 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Moisés Ballesteros | #76 | 51 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Michael Busch | #66 | 54 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Seiya Suzuki | #33 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | #11 | 75 | 🟡 B | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Ian Happ | #3 | 85 | 🟢 A | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-06-03 | Logan O'Hoppe | #110 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Vaughn Grissom | #87 | 49 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-03 | Oswald Peraza | #56 | 56 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Zach Neto | #55 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Jo Adell | #51 | 57 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Jorge Soler | #37 | 60 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Mike Trout | #10 | 70 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-29 | Luis Arráez | #204 | 30 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-29 | Drew Gilbert | #203 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-29 | Jung Hoo Lee | #178 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-29 | Matt Chapman | #170 | 36 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-29 | Patrick Bailey | #117 | 46 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-29 | Heliot Ramos | #77 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-29 | Willy Adames | #48 | 59 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-29 | Rafael Devers | #42 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-29 | Casey Schmitt | #7 | 76 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-23 | jose fernandez | #268 | 23 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-23 | geraldo perdomo | #234 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-23 | alek thomas | #211 | 36 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-23 | adrian del castillo | #196 | 38 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-23 | ildemaro vargas | #158 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-23 | gabriel moreno | #140 | 46 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-23 | nolan arenado | #102 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-23 | ketel marte | #88 | 53 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-23 | corbin carroll | #25 | 68 | 🔵 C+ | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | #199 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-17 | Jose Fernandez | #183 | 36 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Geraldo Perdomo | #148 | 43 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Gabriel Moreno | #80 | 55 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Ildemaro Vargas | #73 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Nolan Arenado | #70 | 57 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Adrian Del Castillo | #68 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Corbin Carroll | #28 | 73 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-17 | Ryan Waldschmidt | #14 | 81 | 🟢 A | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Nick Gonzales | #248 | 9 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Marcell Ozuna | #226 | 17 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Nick Yorke | #222 | 18 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Bryan Reynolds | #203 | 23 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Konnor Griffin | #196 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Ryan O'Hearn | #167 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Spencer Horwitz | #144 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Oneil Cruz | #71 | 38 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Brandon Lowe | #23 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Marcus Semien | #139 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-06 | Brett Baty | #125 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Luis Robert Jr. | #124 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Carson Benge | #79 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Francisco Lindor | #78 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Bo Bichette | #77 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Mark Vientos | #71 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Francisco Alvarez | #44 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Juan Soto | #26 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-05 | Luis Robert Jr. | #200 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-05 | Marcus Semien | #199 | 17 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-05 | Brett Baty | #166 | 22 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-05 | Bo Bichette | #145 | 25 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-05 | Jorge Polanco | #91 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-05 | Francisco Alvarez | #85 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-05 | Francisco Lindor | #80 | 37 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-05 | Mark Vientos | #57 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-05 | Carson Benge | #43 | 49 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Matt McLain | #97 | 27 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Tyler Stephenson | #80 | 30 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-30 | TJ Friedl | #70 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-30 | JJ Bleday | #65 | 35 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Will Benson | #40 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Sal Stewart | #27 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Spencer Steer | #18 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Nathaniel Lowe | #7 | 80 | 🟢 A | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-30 | Elly De La Cruz | #6 | 80 | 🟢 A | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Ronny Mauricio | #250 | 8 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Tyrone Taylor | #233 | 21 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Mark Vientos | #229 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Marcus Semien | #222 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Bo Bichette | #219 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Brett Baty | #199 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Carson Benge | #181 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Juan Soto | #133 | 47 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Francisco Alvarez | #118 | 50 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Alex Call | #183 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Alex Freeland | #130 | 44 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Hyeseong Kim | #108 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Kyle Tucker | #99 | 50 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Ryan Ward | #97 | 51 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Will Smith | #83 | 54 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Max Muncy | #38 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Andy Pages | #30 | 68 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Shohei Ohtani | #10 | 81 | 🟢 A | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Jake Meyers | #208 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Mauricio Dubon | #151 | 30 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Victor Caratini | #116 | 41 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Yainer Diaz | #92 | 44 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Jeremy Pena | #80 | 44 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Cam Smith | #62 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Isaac Paredes | #53 | 47 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Jose Altuve | #40 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Christian Walker | #19 | 50 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Xavier Edwards | #236 | 21 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Javier Sanoja | #165 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Liam Hicks | #155 | 29 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | 💥 |
| 2026-03-28 | Eric Wagaman | #147 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Dane Myers | #122 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Otto Lopez | #91 | 36 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Connor Norby | #87 | 39 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Agustin Ramirez | #41 | 45 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Kyle Stowers | #7 | 58 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |