2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Tatsuya Imai RHP HOU
58 matchups scored · 7 game days
5 HRs Allowed
8.6% HR Rate (Pool)
27.5% Overall HR/FB
5.77 FIP
4.93 xFIP
+0.84 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
0.71
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
27.5%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
96th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
67.3%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
5.77
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
90th pctile
4.93
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.84
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
85th pctile
8.6%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
58
Pool Matchups
5
HRs Allowed (Pool)
4
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
8.6%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 8 1 1 12.5% 1.0 98.2mph 100.8mph 30.0° 376ft Up +3.9pp
Last 15 22 3 1 4.5% 0.33 97.6mph 100.8mph 30.0° 376ft Down -4.1pp
Last 30 40 5 2 5.0% 0.4 96.8mph 100.6mph 32.5° 362ft Down -3.6pp
Batted-Ball Damage
52 tracked BBE from 58 pool matchups
97.3
112.3
35
0
102.5
30.0°
371
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-19 Travis Bazzana 102.4mph · · · ·
2026-06-19 Rhys Hoskins 100.8mph 100.8mph 30° 376ft Yes
2026-06-19 Brayan Rocchio 100.4mph · · · ·
2026-06-12 Isaac Collins 106.6mph · · · ·
2026-06-12 Jac Caglianone 102.1mph · · · ·
2026-06-06 Carlos Cortes 108.9mph · · · ·
2026-06-06 Brent Rooker 106.1mph · · · ·
2026-06-06 Nick Kurtz 102.0mph · · · ·
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
7 days · 5 total HRs
HRs Allowed
5 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-19 Rhys Hoskins #97 48 Minute Maid Park 100.8mph 30.0° 376ft
2026-05-31 Jake Bauers #28 69 Minute Maid Park 100.4mph 35.0° 347ft
2026-05-18 Josh Bell #119 44 Target Field 104.0mph 26.0° 381.0ft
2026-05-12 Dominic Canzone #34 45 Minute Maid Park 105.5mph 25.0° 381.0ft
2026-05-12 Randy Arozarena #60 41 Minute Maid Park 101.7mph 34.0° 369.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Slider 346 44.5% -0.4 80.9 13.0° 4
Fastball 326 42.0% +0.3 84.4 25.8° 1
Sinker 62 8.0% -2.0 80.7 10.2° 0
Changeup 24 3.1% +8.4 75.3 21.5° 1
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
67.3%
67.3%
All Scored Matchups
58 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-19 Steven Kwan #202 24 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-19 Patrick Bailey #186 28 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-19 Brayan Rocchio #154 37 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-19 Rhys Hoskins #97 48 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-19 Kyle Manzardo #96 48 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-19 Gabriel Arias #85 50 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-19 Daniel Schneemann #76 51 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-19 Travis Bazzana #53 57 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Isaac Collins #205 27 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-12 Vinnie Pasquantino #151 39 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-12 Michael Massey #82 50 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-12 Carter Jensen #79 52 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Jac Caglianone #64 55 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-06 Darell Hernaiz #218 24 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 Henry Bolte #206 28 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 Jeff McNeil #199 29 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 Zack Gelof #100 47 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-06 Carlos Cortes #74 51 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 Brent Rooker #31 63 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 Tyler Soderstrom #20 67 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-06 Nick Kurtz #8 71 🟡 B 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 Shea Langeliers #2 80 🟢 A ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-31 David Hamilton #235 27 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-31 Joey Ortiz #202 33 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-31 Sal Frelick #176 38 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-31 Andrew Vaughn #110 48 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-31 Brice Turang #89 51 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-31 Garrett Mitchell #56 60 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-31 Gary Sánchez #55 60 🔵 C+ ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-31 Christian Yelich #48 62 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-31 Jake Bauers #28 69 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-25 Alejandro Osuna #226 16 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-25 Andrew McCutchen #208 24 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-25 Joc Pederson #144 38 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-25 Danny Jansen #124 41 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-25 Michael Helman #120 42 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-25 Evan Carter #119 42 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-25 Justin Foscue #83 48 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-25 Ezequiel Duran #77 50 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-25 Brandon Nimmo #58 55 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-18 Austin Martin #213 29 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-18 Luke Keaschall #206 31 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-18 Victor Caratini #198 33 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-18 Trevor Larnach #162 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-18 Brooks Lee #161 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-18 Josh Bell #119 44 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-18 Matt Wallner #81 52 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-18 Ryan Jeffers #15 77 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-18 Byron Buxton #2 99 🥇 S 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-12 Leo Rivas #230 17 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-12 J.P. Crawford #138 31 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-12 Josh Naylor #112 34 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-12 Cole Young #90 36 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-12 Julio Rodríguez #76 38 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-12 Randy Arozarena #60 41 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-12 Cal Raleigh #59 41 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-12 Dominic Canzone #34 45 ⚪ D ❄ COLD 💥
2026-05-12 Luke Raley #16 52 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
Six home runs to freedom

Tatsuya Imai's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see vulnerability signals, today’s threat breakdown, recent splits, batted-ball damage, and every scored matchup.

58 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 516

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.