2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs
Ian Seymour
Ian Seymour LHP TB
27 matchups scored · 3 game days
5 HRs Allowed
18.5% HR Rate (Pool)
13.8% Overall HR/FB
4.15 FIP
4.26 xFIP
-0.11 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
1.67
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
13.8%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
63th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
73.1%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
4.15
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
55th pctile
4.26
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.11
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
43th pctile
18.5%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
27
Pool Matchups
5
HRs Allowed (Pool)
2
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
18.5%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 9 1 2 22.2% 2.0 101.3mph 104.8mph 31.5° 410ft Up +3.7pp
Last 15 18 2 3 16.7% 1.5 99.0mph 104.3mph 32.7° 407ft Flat -1.8pp
Last 30 18 2 3 16.7% 1.5 99.0mph 104.3mph 32.7° 407ft Flat -1.8pp
Batted-Ball Damage
26 tracked BBE from 27 pool matchups
98.9
110.9
19
0
103.6
31.0°
405
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-20 James Wood 110.9mph · · · ·
2026-06-20 Dylan Crews 109.6mph 106.8mph 25° 442ft Yes
2026-06-20 Andrés Chaparro 109.3mph · · · ·
2026-06-20 Jacob Young 105.1mph · · · ·
2026-06-20 CJ Abrams 102.8mph 102.8mph 38° 378ft Yes
2026-06-08 Wilyer Abreu 106.3mph · · · ·
2026-06-08 Marcelo Mayer 103.3mph 103.3mph 35° 401ft Yes
2026-06-08 Mickey Gasper 102.3mph · · · ·
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
3 days · 5 total HRs
HRs Allowed
5 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-20 CJ Abrams #40 61 Tropicana Field 102.8mph 38.0° 378ft
2026-06-20 Dylan Crews #60 56 Tropicana Field 106.8mph 25.0° 442ft
2026-06-08 Marcelo Mayer #107 30 Tropicana Field 103.3mph 35.0° 401ft
2026-05-15 Connor Norby #170 38 Tropicana Field 105.1mph 27.0° 412.0ft
2026-05-15 Jakob Marsee #192 33 Tropicana Field 100.0mph 30.0° 394.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Changeup 271 33.2% -2.5 77.9 15.7° 0
Fastball 188 23.0% +1.0 81.7 33.3° 2
Sweeper 185 22.6% -2.0 79.1 36.7° 2
Sinker 120 14.7% +0.6 76.7 20.0° 2
Slider 32 3.9% +2.7 77.2 19.5° 1
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
73.1%
73.1%
All Scored Matchups
27 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-20 Nasim Nuñez #212 19 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-20 Andrés Chaparro #171 35 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-20 Daylen Lile #134 43 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-20 Jacob Young #103 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-20 Keibert Ruiz #93 49 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-20 Dylan Crews #60 56 🟠 C ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-20 CJ Abrams #40 61 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-20 Curtis Mead #28 65 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-20 James Wood #7 76 🟡 B 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-08 Marcelo Mayer #107 30 ⚪ D ❄ COLD 💥
2026-06-08 Mickey Gasper #104 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-08 Caleb Durbin #91 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-08 Carlos Narváez #85 40 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-08 Isiah Kiner-Falefa #80 42 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-08 Ceddanne Rafaela #66 46 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-08 Wilyer Abreu #55 50 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-08 Jarren Duran #18 66 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-08 Willson Contreras #9 73 🟡 B 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-15 Christopher Morel #252 14 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-15 Kyle Stowers #223 27 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-15 Jakob Marsee #192 33 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-15 Connor Norby #170 38 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-15 Xavier Edwards #163 39 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-15 Otto Lopez #141 42 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-15 Joe Mack #131 44 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-15 Liam Hicks #113 47 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-15 Esteury Ruiz #56 61 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
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