Matt Waldron
RHP
SD
6
HRs Allowed
13.3%
HR Rate (Pool)
31.0%
Overall HR/FB
6.49
FIP
5.52
xFIP
+0.98
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
1.2
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
31.0%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
98th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
55.9%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
6.49
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
95th pctile
5.52
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.98
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
89th pctile
13.3%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
45
Pool Matchups
6
HRs Allowed (Pool)
3
Top-15 Matchups
1
HRs to Top-15
13.3%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 5.6% | 0.5 | 92.1mph | 100.5mph | 39.0° | 365ft | Down -7.7pp |
| Last 15 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 11.1% | 1.0 | 93.2mph | 102.4mph | 34.7° | 358ft | Down -2.2pp |
| Last 30 | 45 | 5 | 6 | 13.3% | 1.2 | 94.8mph | 102.5mph | 33.0° | 376ft | Flat +0.0pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
94.8
Avg Max EV
106.2
Max EV Allowed
19
Hard-Hit Proxy · 55.9%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
102.5
Avg HR EV
33.0°
Avg HR Launch
376
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Garrett Mitchell | 105.8mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-12 | William Contreras | 102.6mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Willy Adames | 105.8mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Rafael Devers | 100.5mph | 100.5mph | 39° | 365ft | Yes |
| 2026-04-29 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 105.4mph | 105.4mph | 24° | 357ft | Yes |
| 2026-04-29 | Matt Shaw | 101.2mph | 101.2mph | 41° | 351ft | Yes |
| 2026-04-23 | Mickey Moniak | 106.2mph | 106.2mph | 28° | 429ft | Yes |
| 2026-04-23 | Edouard Julien | 104.1mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Rafael Devers | #256 | 11 | Oracle Park | 100.5mph | 39.0° | 365.0ft |
| 2026-04-29 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | #153 | 29 | Petco Park | 105.4mph | 24.0° | 357.0ft |
| 2026-04-29 | Matt Shaw | #176 | 24 | Petco Park | 101.2mph | 41.0° | 351.0ft |
| 2026-04-23 | Mickey Moniak | #4 | 76 | Coors Field | 106.2mph | 28.0° | 429.0ft |
| 2026-04-17 | Yoán Moncada | #50 | 61 | Angel Stadium | 104.3mph | 34.0° | 388.0ft |
| 2026-04-17 | Josh Lowe | #70 | 56 | Angel Stadium | 97.5mph | 32.0° | 364.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knuckleball | 117 | 28.3% | +3.5 | 81.9 | 5.6° | 2 |
| Fastball | 84 | 20.3% | +2.0 | 85.7 | 34.7° | 1 |
| Cutter | 79 | 19.1% | -2.6 | 75.3 | 16.9° | 0 |
| Sinker | 70 | 16.9% | +2.7 | 84.6 | 11.5° | 1 |
| Sweeper | 64 | 15.5% | +4.4 | 78.4 | 23.1° | 1 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
55.9%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | David Hamilton | #243 | 12 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Brandon Lockridge | #236 | 14 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Luis Rengifo | #206 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | William Contreras | #177 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Garrett Mitchell | #121 | 33 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Sal Frelick | #110 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Jake Bauers | #75 | 38 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Brice Turang | #39 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Gary Sánchez | #22 | 50 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Patrick Bailey | #257 | 11 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Rafael Devers | #256 | 11 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-06 | Willy Adames | #248 | 13 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Harrison Bader | #239 | 15 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Luis Arraez | #238 | 15 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Matt Chapman | #207 | 20 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Heliot Ramos | #199 | 21 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Casey Schmitt | #194 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Jung Hoo Lee | #172 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-29 | Carson Kelly | #211 | 19 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-29 | Michael Busch | #196 | 21 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-29 | Alex Bregman | #184 | 23 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-29 | Matt Shaw | #176 | 24 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-29 | Ian Happ | #163 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-29 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | #153 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-29 | Dansby Swanson | #136 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-29 | Nico Hoerner | #135 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-29 | Seiya Suzuki | #131 | 32 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-23 | Brett Sullivan | #80 | 39 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-23 | Jake McCarthy | #65 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-23 | Troy Johnston | #61 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-23 | Kyle Karros | #42 | 48 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-23 | TJ Rumfield | #41 | 48 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-23 | Ezequiel Tovar | #39 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-23 | Willi Castro | #32 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-23 | Edouard Julien | #29 | 52 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-23 | Mickey Moniak | #4 | 76 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-17 | Nolan Schanuel | #115 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Josh Lowe | #70 | 56 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-04-17 | Logan O'Hoppe | #69 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Yoán Moncada | #50 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-17 | Jo Adell | #43 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Oswald Peraza | #27 | 69 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Zach Neto | #16 | 74 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Jorge Soler | #6 | 83 | 🟢 A | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Mike Trout | #2 | 92 | 🔥 A+ | ➖ NTRL | · |