Brayan Bello
RHP
BOS
12
HRs Allowed
16.9%
HR Rate (Pool)
21.6%
Overall HR/FB
6.57
FIP
4.79
xFIP
+1.78
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
1.5
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
21.6%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
91th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
75.8%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
6.57
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
96th pctile
4.79
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+1.78
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
97th pctile
16.9%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
71
Pool Matchups
12
HRs Allowed (Pool)
2
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
16.9%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 104.9mph | · | · | · | Down -16.9pp |
| Last 15 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 104.9mph | · | · | · | Down -16.9pp |
| Last 30 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 11.1% | 1.0 | 101.1mph | 99.3mph | 35.0° | 388ft | Down -5.8pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
99.4
Avg Max EV
112.4
Max EV Allowed
47
Hard-Hit Proxy · 75.8%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
104.0
Avg HR EV
30.1°
Avg HR Launch
395
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Samuel Basallo | 112.4mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Coby Mayo | 109.8mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Adley Rutschman | 107.2mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Leody Taveras | 106.6mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Pete Alonso | 104.2mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Jackson Holliday | 102.7mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Taylor Ward | 102.7mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Colton Cowser | 101.6mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Austin Riley | #47 | 62 | Truist Park | 104.0mph | 31.0° | 431.0ft |
| 2026-05-17 | Mike Yastrzemski | #113 | 48 | Truist Park | 94.6mph | 39.0° | 344.0ft |
| 2026-04-29 | Ernie Clement | #85 | 38 | Rogers Centre | 99.3mph | 23.0° | 360.0ft |
| 2026-04-24 | Gunnar Henderson | #18 | 77 | Camden Yards | 109.1mph | 36.0° | 410.0ft |
| 2026-04-24 | Adley Rutschman | #28 | 73 | Camden Yards | 103.4mph | 31.0° | 393.0ft |
| 2026-04-24 | Samuel Basallo | #33 | 71 | Camden Yards | 111.0mph | 20.0° | 395.0ft |
| 2026-04-24 | Coby Mayo | #39 | 69 | Camden Yards | 103.0mph | 31.0° | 397.0ft |
| 2026-04-24 | Dylan Beavers | #84 | 58 | Camden Yards | 102.3mph | 33.0° | 411.0ft |
| 2026-04-18 | Kerry Carpenter | #123 | 46 | Fenway Park | 105.9mph | 32.0° | 396.0ft |
| 2026-04-12 | Alec Burleson | #150 | 28 | Busch Stadium | 111.6mph | 25.0° | 430.0ft |
| 2026-04-12 | Jordan Walker | #170 | 23 | Busch Stadium | 103.8mph | 29.0° | 432.0ft |
| 2026-03-31 | Cam Smith | #161 | 30 | Minute Maid Park | 99.6mph | 31.0° | 346.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 441 | 42.4% | -0.3 | 86.4 | 6.3° | 1 |
| Changeup | 183 | 17.6% | +0.5 | 81.2 | 7.6° | 1 |
| Cutter | 165 | 15.9% | +3.6 | 82.7 | 1.6° | 5 |
| Sweeper | 122 | 11.7% | -2.0 | 81.3 | 8.1° | 0 |
| Curveball | 64 | 6.2% | +2.1 | 88.4 | 23.6° | 2 |
| Fastball | 65 | 6.2% | +9.2 | 88.4 | 17.5° | 1 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
75.8%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Leody Taveras | #132 | 29 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Taylor Ward | #126 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Jackson Holliday | #64 | 46 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Colton Cowser | #53 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Adley Rutschman | #44 | 54 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Gunnar Henderson | #37 | 55 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Coby Mayo | #29 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Samuel Basallo | #28 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Pete Alonso | #21 | 60 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-17 | José Azócar | #134 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Mike Yastrzemski | #113 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-17 | Ozzie Albies | #89 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Jorge Mateo | #72 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Dominic Smith | #48 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Austin Riley | #47 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-17 | Michael Harris II | #24 | 74 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Drake Baldwin | #7 | 88 | 🟢 A | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Matt Olson | #1 | 97 | 🥇 S | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-29 | Davis Schneider | #158 | 28 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-29 | Daulton Varsho | #102 | 36 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-29 | Andrés Giménez | #101 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-29 | Nathan Lukes | #87 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-29 | George Springer | #86 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-29 | Ernie Clement | #85 | 38 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-29 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | #75 | 39 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-29 | Kazuma Okamoto | #66 | 41 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-29 | Jesús Sánchez | #27 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Dylan Beavers | #84 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-24 | Leody Taveras | #63 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Pete Alonso | #59 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Taylor Ward | #46 | 66 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Coby Mayo | #39 | 69 | 🔵 C+ | 🔥 HOT | 💥 |
| 2026-04-24 | Jeremiah Jackson | #36 | 70 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Samuel Basallo | #33 | 71 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-24 | Adley Rutschman | #28 | 73 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-24 | Gunnar Henderson | #18 | 77 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-18 | Gleyber Torres | #241 | 20 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-18 | Javier Báez | #235 | 21 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-18 | Zach McKinstry | #233 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-18 | Spencer Torkelson | #205 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-18 | Colt Keith | #200 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-18 | Kevin McGonigle | #183 | 34 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-18 | Riley Greene | #156 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-18 | Kerry Carpenter | #123 | 46 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-18 | Dillon Dingler | #87 | 54 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-12 | José Fermín | #172 | 15 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-12 | Ramón Urías | #171 | 31 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-12 | Jordan Walker | #170 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-12 | Iván Herrera | #169 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-12 | Thomas Saggese | #165 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-12 | Victor Scott II | #164 | 9 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-12 | Alec Burleson | #150 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-12 | Nolan Gorman | #127 | 27 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Joey Ortiz | #195 | 19 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Caleb Durbin | #180 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Sal Frelick | #175 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Isaac Collins | #150 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Rhys Hoskins | #114 | 36 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-06 | William Contreras | #106 | 29 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Brice Turang | #96 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Jackson Chourio | #77 | 37 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Christian Yelich | #49 | 37 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Jake Meyers | #208 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Mauricio Dubon | #198 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Cam Smith | #161 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-03-31 | Victor Caratini | #145 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Yainer Diaz | #122 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Jeremy Pena | #120 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Jose Altuve | #114 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Isaac Paredes | #111 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Christian Walker | #106 | 41 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |